To operate in human-robot coexisting environments, intelligent robots need to simultaneously reason with commonsense knowledge and plan under uncertainty. Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs), are good at planning under uncertainty toward maximizing long-term rewards; P-LOG, a declarative programming language under Answer Set semantics, is strong in commonsense reasoning. In this paper, we present a novel algorithm called iCORPP to dynamically reason about, and construct (PO)MDPs using P-LOG. iCORPP successfully shields exogenous domain attributes from (PO)MDPs, which limits computational complexity and enables (PO)MDPs to adapt to the value changes these attributes produce. We conduct a number of experimental trials using two example problems in simulation and demonstrate iCORPP on a real robot. Results show significant improvements compared to competitive baselines.

I present a robotics localization challenge based on the inexpensive Neato XV robotic vacuum cleaner platform. The challenge teaches skills such as computational modeling, probabilistic inference, efficiency vs. accuracy tradeoffs, debugging, parameter tuning, and benchmarking of algorithmic performance. Rather than allowing students to pursue any localization algorithm of their choosing, here, I propose a challenge structured around the particle filter family of algorithms. This additional scaffolding allows students at all levels to successfully implement one approach to the challenge, while providing enough flexibility and richness to enable students to pursue their own creative ideas. Additionally, I provide infrastructure for automatic evaluation of systems through the collection of ground truth robot location data via ceiling-mounted location tags that are automatically scanned using an upward facing camera attached to the robot. The robot and supporting hardware can be purchased for under $400 dollars, and the challenge can even be run without any robots at all using a set of recorded sensor traces.

Qualitative and quantitative approaches to reasoning about uncertainty can lead to different logical systems for formalizing such reasoning, even when the language for expressing uncertainty is the same. In the case of reasoning about relative likelihood, with statements of the form φ 􏰂≥ ψ expressing that φ is at least as likely as ψ, a standard qualitative approach using preordered preferential structures yields a dramatically different logical system than a quantitative approach using probability measures. In fact, the standard preferential approach validates principles of reasoning that are incorrect from a probabilistic point of view. However, in this paper we show that a natural modification of the preferential approach yields exactly the same logical system as a probabilistic approach — not using single probability measures, but rather sets of probability measures. Thus, the same preferential structures used in the study of non-monotonic logics and belief revision may be used in the study of comparative probabilistic reasoning based on imprecise probabilities.

Estimating the joint probability density function of a dataset is a central task in many machine learning applications. In this work we address the fundamental problem of kernel bandwidth estimation for variable kernel density estimation in high-dimensional feature spaces. We derive a variable kernel bandwidth estimator by minimizing the leave-one-out entropy objective function and show that this estimator is capable of performing estimation in high-dimensional feature spaces with great success. We compare the performance of this estimator to state-of-the art maximum-likelihood estimators on a number of representative high-dimensional machine learning tasks and show that the newly introduced minimum leave-one-out entropy estimator performs optimally on a number of high-dimensional datasets considered.

Probabilistic databases (PDBs) are usually incomplete, e.g., containing only the facts that have been extracted from the Web with high confidence. However, missing facts are often treated as being false, which leads to unintuitive results when querying PDBs. Recently, open-world probabilistic databases (OpenPDBs) were proposed to address this issue by allowing probabilities of unknown facts to take any value from a fixed probability interval. In this paper, we extend OpenPDBs by Datalog+/- ontologies, under which both upper and lower probabilities of queries become even more informative, enabling us to distinguish queries that were indistinguishable before. We show that the dichotomy between P and PP in (Open)PDBs can be lifted to the case of first-order rewritable positive programs (without negative constraints); and that the problem can become NP^PP-complete, once negative constraints are allowed. We also propose an approximating semantics that circumvents the increase in complexity caused by negative constraints.

Accurate electricity demand forecast plays a key role in sustainable power systems. It enables better decision making in the planning of electricity generation and distribution for many use cases. The electricity demand data can often be represented in a hierarchical structure. For example, the electricity consumption of a whole country could be disaggregated by states, cities, and households. Hierarchical forecasts require not only good prediction accuracy at each level of the hierarchy, but also the consistency between different levels. State-of-the-art hierarchical forecasting methods usually apply adjustments on the individual level forecasts to satisfy the aggregation constraints. However, the high-dimensionality of the unpenalized regression problem and the estimation errors in the high-dimensional error covariance matrix can lead to increased variability in the revised forecasts with poor prediction performance. In order to provide more robustness to estimation errors in the adjustments, we present a new hierarchical forecasting algorithm that computes sparse adjustments while still preserving the aggregation constraints. We formulate the problem as a high-dimensional penalized regression, which can be efficiently solved using cyclical coordinate descent methods. We also conduct experiments using a large-scale hierarchical electricity demand data. The results confirm the effectiveness of our approach compared to state-of-the-art hierarchical forecasting methods, in both the sparsity of the adjustments and the prediction accuracy. The proposed approach to hierarchical forecasting could be useful for energy generation including solar and wind energy, as well as numerous other applications.

Belief Propagation (BP) is an iterative message-passing algorithm for performing inference in graphical models Convergent message-passing algorithms. There has (GMs), such as Markov Random Fields (MRFs). BP calculates been much research on finding variations to the update equations the marginal distribution for each unobserved node, of BP that guarantee convergence. These algorithms conditional on any observed nodes (Pearl 1988). It achieves are often similar in structure to the nonconvergent algorithms, this by propagating the information from a few observed yet it can be proven that the value of the variational nodes throughout the network by iteratively passing information problem (or its dual) improves at each iteration (Hazan and between neighboring nodes. It is known that when Shashua 2008; Heskes 2006; Meltzer, Globerson, and Weiss the graphical model has a tree structure, then BP converges 2009). Another body of recent papers have suggested to to the true marginals (according to exact probabilistic inference) solve the convergence problems of MMinference by linearizing after a finite number of iterations.

The formalism of multi-objective influence diagrams has recently been developed for modeling and solving sequential decision problems under uncertainty and multiple objectives. Since utility values representing the decision maker's preferences are only partially ordered (e.g., by the Pareto order) we no longer have a unique maximal value of expected utility, but a set of them. Computing the set of maximal values of expected utility and the corresponding policies can be computationally very challenging. In this paper, we consider alternative notions of optimality, one of the most important one being the notion of possibly optimal, namely optimal in at least one scenario compatible with the inter-objective tradeoffs. We develop a variable elimination algorithm for computing the set of possibly optimal expected utility values, prove formally its correctness, and compare variants of the algorithm experimentally.

Persuasion is an activity that involves one party (the persuader) trying to induce another party (the persuadee) to believe or do something. For this, it can be advantageous forthe persuader to have a model of the persuadee. Recently, some proposals in the field of computational models of argument have been made for probabilistic models of what the persuadee knows about, or believes. However, these developments have not systematically harnessed established notions in decision theory for maximizing the outcome of a dialogue. To address this, we present a general framework for representing persuasion dialogues as a decision tree, and for using decision rules for selecting moves. Furthermore, we provide some empirical results showing how some well-known decision rules perform, and make observations about their general behaviour in the context of dialogues where there is uncertainty about the accuracy of the user model.

Nonparametric inference techniques provide promising tools for probabilistic reasoning in high-dimensional nonlinear systems.Most of these techniques embed distributions into reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) and rely on the kernel Bayes' rule (KBR) to manipulate the embeddings. However, the computational demands of the KBR scale poorly with the number of samples and the KBR often suffers from numerical instabilities. In this paper, we present the kernel Kalman rule (KKR) as an alternative to the KBR.The derivation of the KKR is based on recursive least squares, inspired by the derivation of the Kalman innovation update.We apply the KKR to filtering tasks where we use RKHS embeddings to represent the belief state, resulting in the kernel Kalman filter (KKF).We show on a nonlinear state estimation task with high dimensional observations that our approach provides a significantly improved estimation accuracy while the computational demands are significantly decreased.