We propose a robust and scalable variational Bayes (VB) framework designed to effectively handle contamination and outliers in dataset. Our approach partitions the data into $m$ disjoint subsets and formulates a joint optimization problem based on robust aggregation principles. A key insight is that the full posterior distribution is equivalent to the minimizer of the mean Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence from the $m$-powered local posterior distributions. To enhance robustness, we replace the mean KL divergence with a min-max median formulation. The min-max formulation not only ensures consistency between the KL minimizer and the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) maximizer but also facilitates the establishment of improved statistical rates for the mean of variational posterior. We observe a notable discrepancy in the $m$-powered marginal log likelihood function contingent on the presence of local latent variables. To address this, we treat these two scenarios separately to guarantee the consistency of the aggregated variational posterior. Specifically, when local latent variables are present, we introduce an aggregate-and-rescale strategy. Theoretically, we provide a non-asymptotic analysis of our proposed posterior, incorporating a refined analysis of Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) theorem to accommodate a diverging number of subsets $m$. Our findings indicate that the two-stage approach yields a smaller approximation error compared to directly aggregating the $m$-powered local posteriors. Furthermore, we establish a nearly optimal statistical rate for the mean of the proposed posterior, advancing existing theories related to min-max median estimators. The efficacy of our method is demonstrated through extensive simulation studies.

Proper quantification of predictive uncertainty is essential for the use of machine learning in safety-critical applications. V arious uncertainty measures have been proposed for this purpose, typically claiming superiority over other measures. In this paper, we argue that there is no single best measure. Instead, uncertainty quantification should be tailored to the specific application. To this end, we use a flexible family of uncertainty measures that distinguishes between total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty of second-order distributions. These measures can be instantiated with specific loss functions, so-called proper scoring rules, to control their characteristics, and we show that different characteristics are useful for different tasks. In particular, we show that, for the task of selective prediction, the scoring rule should ideally match the task loss. On the other hand, for out-of-distribution detection, our results confirm that mutual information, a widely used measure of epistemic uncertainty, performs best. Furthermore, in an active learning setting, epistemic uncertainty based on zero-one loss is shown to consistently outperform other uncertainty measures.

Adaptive behavior in volatile environments requires agents to deploy different value-control regimes across latent contexts, but representing separate preferences, policy biases, and action confidence for every situation is intractable. We introduce value profiles: a small set of reusable bundles of value-related parameters--outcome preferences, policy priors, and policy precision--that are assigned to hidden states in the generative model. As posterior beliefs over states evolve trial-by-trial, effective control parameters emerge through belief-weighted mixing, enabling state-conditional strategy recruitment without maintaining independent parameters for each situation. We evaluate this framework in probabilistic reversal learning, comparing static precision, entropy-coupled dynamic precision, and profile-based models using cross-validated log-likelihood and information criteria. Model comparison using AIC favors the profile-based model over simpler alternatives ( 100-point differences), with consistent parameter recovery demonstrating structural identifiability even when context must be inferred from noisy observations. Model-based inference suggests that, in this task, adaptive control operates primarily through policy prior modulation rather than policy precision modulation, with gradual belief-driven profile recruitment confirming state-conditional rather than merely uncertainty-driven control. Overall, reusable value profiles provide a tractable computational account of belief-conditioned value control in volatile environments, providing a reusable, mode-like representational scheme for behavioral flexibility that yields testable signatures of belief-conditioned control.

This paper is concerned with differentiable resampling in the context of sequential Monte Carlo (e.g., particle filtering). We propose a new informative resampling method that is instantly pathwise differentiable, based on an ensemble score diffusion model. We prove that our diffusion resampling method provides a consistent estimate to the resampling distribution, and we show by experiments that it outperforms the state-of-the-art differentiable resampling methods when used for stochastic filtering and parameter estimation.

The property of learning-curve monotonicity, highlighted in a recent series of work by Loog, Mey and Viering, describes algorithms which only improve in average performance given more data, for any underlying data distribution within a given family. We establish the first nontrivial monotonicity guarantees for the maximum likelihood estimator in a variety of well-specified parametric settings. For sequential prediction with log loss, we show monotonicity (in fact complete monotonicity) of the forward KL divergence for Gaussian vectors with unknown covariance and either known or unknown mean, as well as for Gamma variables with unknown scale parameter. The Gaussian setting was explicitly highlighted as open in the aforementioned works, even in dimension 1. Finally we observe that for reverse KL divergence, a folklore trick yields monotonicity for very general exponential families. All results in this paper were derived by variants of GPT-5.2 Pro. Humans did not provide any proof strategies or intermediate arguments, but only prompted the model to continue developing additional results, and verified and transcribed its proofs.

Topology identification and inference of processes evolving over graphs arise in timely applications involving brain, transportation, financial, power, as well as social and information networks. This chapter provides an overview of graph topology identification and statistical inference methods for multidimensional relational data. Approaches for undirected links connecting graph nodes are outlined, going all the way from correlation metrics to covariance selection, and revealing ties with smooth signal priors. To account for directional (possibly causal) relations among nodal variables and address the limitations of linear time-invariant models in handling dynamic as well as nonlinear dependencies, a principled framework is surveyed to capture these complexities through judiciously selected kernels from a prescribed dictionary. Generalizations are also described via structural equations and vector autoregressions that can exploit attributes such as low rank, sparsity, acyclicity, and smoothness to model dynamic processes over possibly time-evolving topologies. It is argued that this approach supports both batch and online learning algorithms with convergence rate guarantees, is amenable to tensor (that is, multi-way array) formulations as well as decompositions that are well-suited for multidimensional network data, and can seamlessly leverage high-order statistical information.

Finding cause-effect relationships is of key importance in science. Causal discovery aims to recover a graph from data that succinctly describes these cause-effect relationships. However, current methods face several challenges, especially when dealing with high-dimensional data and complex dependencies. Incorporating prior knowledge about the system can aid causal discovery. In this work, we leverage Cluster-DAGs as a prior knowledge framework to warm-start causal discovery. We show that Cluster-DAGs offer greater flexibility than existing approaches based on tiered background knowledge and introduce two modified constraint-based algorithms, Cluster-PC and Cluster-FCI, for causal discovery in the fully and partially observed setting, respectively. Empirical evaluation on simulated data demonstrates that Cluster-PC and Cluster-FCI outperform their respective baselines without prior knowledge.

Causal discovery methods have traditionally been developed under two distinct regimes: independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) and timeseries data, each governed by separate modelling assumptions. In this paper, we argue that the i.i.d. setting can and should be reframed in terms of exchangeability, a strictly more general symmetry principle. We present the implications of this reframing, alongside two core arguments: (1) a conceptual argument, based on extending the dependency of experimental causal inference on exchangeability to causal discovery; and (2) an empirical argument, showing that many existing i.i.d. causal-discovery methods are predicated on exchangeability assumptions, and that the sole extensive widely-used real-world "i.i.d." benchmark (the Tübingen dataset) consists mainly of exchangeable (and not i.i.d.) examples. Building on this insight, we introduce a novel synthetic dataset that enforces only the exchangeability assumption, without imposing the stronger i.i.d. assumption. We show that our exchangeable synthetic dataset mirrors the statistical structure of the real-world "i.i.d." dataset more closely than all other i.i.d. synthetic datasets. Furthermore, we demonstrate the predictive capability of this dataset by proposing a neural-network-based causal-discovery algorithm trained exclusively on our synthetic dataset, and which performs similarly to other state-of-the-art i.i.d. methods on the real-world benchmark.

This article looks at how reasoning works in current Large Language Models (LLMs) that function using the token-completion method. It examines their stochastic nature and their similarity to human abductive reasoning. The argument is that these LLMs create text based on learned patterns rather than performing actual abductive reasoning. When their output seems abductive, this is largely because they are trained on human-generated texts that include reasoning structures. Examples are used to show how LLMs can produce plausible ideas, mimic commonsense reasoning, and give explanatory answers without being grounded in truth, semantics, verification, or understanding, and without performing any real abductive reasoning. This dual nature, where the models have a stochastic base but appear abductive in use, has important consequences for how LLMs are evaluated and applied. They can assist with generating ideas and supporting human thinking, but their outputs must be critically assessed because they cannot identify truth or verify their explanations. The article concludes by addressing five objections to these points, noting some limitations in the analysis, and offering an overall evaluation.

This paper analyzes a fuzzy multiplex from a logical perspective in a way that has not been formalized so far. A fuzzy multiplex is a nested structure with inner nodes representing sub-system level agent traits and with outer nodes representing system agents; all while the ensemble is the system under consideration. Moreover, a mathematical framework is necessary to describe that structure which is formulated and then utilized. The system is firstly initialized using fuzzy set theory [2], inspired by Fuzzy Cognitive Maps [1]. Then a criterion that describes the structure is devised to implement a multiplex instead of a map [7] [8], and lastly system optimization is achieved. Furthermore, the theoretical context behind the multiplex is expounded in an attempt to establish a formal way of handling implications within a closed system using human intelligence. The paper is organized in sections following the reasoning process behind this unique idea. 1