Adverse drug reaction (ADR) is a major burden for patients and healthcare industry. It usually causes preventable hospitalizations and deaths, while associated with a huge amount of cost. Traditional preclinical in vitro safety profiling and clinical safety trials are restricted in terms of small scale, long duration, huge financial costs and limited statistical signifi- cance. The availability of large amounts of drug and ADR data potentially allows ADR predictions during the drugs’ early preclinical stage with data analytics methods to inform more targeted clinical safety tests. Despite their initial success, existing methods have trade-offs among interpretability, predictive power and efficiency. This urges us to explore methods that could have all these strengths and provide practical solutions for real world ADR predictions. We cast the ADR-drug relation structure into a three-layer hierarchical Bayesian model. We interpret each ADR as a symbolic word and apply latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) to learn topics that may represent certain biochemical mechanism that relates ADRs with drug structures. Based on LDA, we designed an equivalent regularization term to incorporate the hierarchical ADR domain knowledge. Finally, we developed a mixed input model leveraging a fast collapsed Gibbs sampling method that the complexity of each iteration of Gibbs sampling proportional only to the number of positive ADRs. Experiments on real world data show our models achieved higher prediction accuracy and shorter running time than the state-of-the-art alternatives.

Everything has its time, which is also true in the point-of-interest (POI) recommendation task. A truly intelligent recommender system, even if you don't visit any sites or remain silent, should draw hints of your next destination from the ``silence", and revise its recommendations as needed. In this paper, we construct a well-timed POI recommender system that updates its recommendations in accordance with the silence, the temporal period in which no visits are made. To achieve this, we propose a novel probabilistic model to predict the joint probabilities of the user visiting POIs and their time-points, by using the admixture or mixed-membership structure to extend marked point processes. With the admixture structure, the proposed model obtains a low dimensional representation for each user, leading to robust recommendation against sparse observations. We also develop an efficient and easy-to-implement estimation algorithm for the proposed model based on collapsed Gibbs and slice sampling. We apply the proposed model to synthetic and real-world check-in data, and show that it performs well in the well-timed recommendation task.

Traditional topic model with maximum likelihood estimate inevitably suffers from the conditional independence of words given the document’s topic distribution. In this paper, we follow the generative procedure of topic model and learn the topic-word distribution and topics distribution via directly approximating the word-document co-occurrence matrix with matrix decomposition technique. These methods include: (1) Approximating the normalized document-word conditional distribution with the documents probability matrix and words probability matrix based on probabilistic non-negative matrix factorization (NMF); (2) Since the standard NMF is well known to be non-robust to noises and outliers, we extended the probabilistic NMF of the topic model to its robust versions using l21-norm and capped l21-norm based loss functions, respectively. The proposed framework inherits the explicit probabilistic meaning of factors in topic models and simultaneously makes the conditional independence assumption on words unnecessary. Straightforward and efficient algorithms are exploited to solve the corresponding non-smooth and non-convex problems. Experimental results over several benchmark datasets illustrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed methods.

Modern society is increasingly reliant on the functionality of infrastructure facilities and utility services. Consequently, there has been surge of interest in the problem of quantification of system reliability, which is known to be #P-complete. Reliability also contributes to the resilience of systems, so as to effectively make them bounce back after contingencies. Despite diverse progress, most techniques to estimate system reliability and resilience remain computationally expensive. In this paper, we investigate how recent advances in hashing-based approaches to counting can be exploited to improve computational techniques for system reliability.The primary contribution of this paper is a novel framework, RelNet, that reduces the problem of computing reliability for a given network to counting the number of satisfying assignments of a Σ 1 1 formula, which is amenable to recent hashing-based techniques developed for counting satisfying assignments of SAT formula. We then apply RelNet to ten real world power-transmission grids across different cities in the U.S. and are able to obtain, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretically sound a priori estimates of reliability between several pairs of nodes of interest. Such estimates will help managing uncertainty and support rational decision making for community resilience.

Accurate electricity demand forecast plays a key role in sustainable power systems. It enables better decision making in the planning of electricity generation and distribution for many use cases. The electricity demand data can often be represented in a hierarchical structure. For example, the electricity consumption of a whole country could be disaggregated by states, cities, and households. Hierarchical forecasts require not only good prediction accuracy at each level of the hierarchy, but also the consistency between different levels. State-of-the-art hierarchical forecasting methods usually apply adjustments on the individual level forecasts to satisfy the aggregation constraints. However, the high-dimensionality of the unpenalized regression problem and the estimation errors in the high-dimensional error covariance matrix can lead to increased variability in the revised forecasts with poor prediction performance. In order to provide more robustness to estimation errors in the adjustments, we present a new hierarchical forecasting algorithm that computes sparse adjustments while still preserving the aggregation constraints. We formulate the problem as a high-dimensional penalized regression, which can be efficiently solved using cyclical coordinate descent methods. We also conduct experiments using a large-scale hierarchical electricity demand data. The results confirm the effectiveness of our approach compared to state-of-the-art hierarchical forecasting methods, in both the sparsity of the adjustments and the prediction accuracy. The proposed approach to hierarchical forecasting could be useful for energy generation including solar and wind energy, as well as numerous other applications.

Structured knowledge about concepts plays an increasingly important role in areas such as information retrieval. The available ontologies and knowledge graphs that encode such conceptual knowledge, however, are inevitably incomplete. This observation has led to a number of methods that aim to automatically complete existing knowledge bases. Unfortunately, most existing approaches rely on black box models, e.g. formulated as global optimization problems, which makes it difficult to support the underlying reasoning process with intuitive explanations. In this paper, we propose a new method for knowledge base completion, which uses interpretable conceptual space representations and an explicit model for inductive inference that is closer to human forms of commonsense reasoning. Moreover, by separating the task of representation learning from inductive reasoning, our method is easier to apply in a wider variety of contexts. Finally, unlike optimization based approaches, our method can naturally be applied in settings where various logical constraints between the extensions of concepts need to be taken into account.

Spatial patterns embedded in human faces are crucial for differentiating posed expressions from spontaneous ones, yet they have not been thoroughly exploited in the literature. To tackle this problem, we present a generative model, i.e., Latent Regression Bayesian Network (LRBN), to effectively capture the spatial patterns embedded in facial landmark points to differentiate between posed and spontaneous facial expressions. The LRBN is a directed graphical model consisting of one latent layer and one visible layer. Due to the “explaining away“ effect in Bayesian networks, LRBN is able to capture both the dependencies among the latent variables given the observation and the dependencies among visible variables. We believe that such dependencies are crucial for faithful data representation. Specifically, during training, we construct two LRBNs to capture spatial patterns inherent in displacements of landmark points from spontaneous facial expressions and posed facial expressions respectively. During testing, the samples are classified into posed or spontaneous expressions according to their likelihoods on two models. Efficient learning and inference algorithms are proposed. Experimental results on two benchmark databases demonstrate the advantages of the proposed approach in modeling spatial patterns as well as its superior performance to the existing methods in differentiating between posed and spontaneous expressions.

We introduce the problem Max#SAT, an extension of model counting (#SAT). Given a formula over sets of variables X, Y, and Z, the Max#SAT problem is to maximize over the variables X the number of assignments to Y that can be extended to a solution with some assignment to Z. We demonstrate that Max#SAT has applications in many areas, showing how it can be used to solve problems in probabilistic inference (marginal MAP), planning, program synthesis, and quantitative information flow analysis. We also give an algorithm which by making only polynomially many calls to an NP oracle can approximate the maximum count to within any desired multiplicative error. The NP queries needed are relatively simple, arising from recent practical approximate model counting and sampling algorithms, which allows our technique to be effectively implemented with a SAT solver. Through several experiments we show that our approach can be successfully applied to interesting problems.

To operate in human-robot coexisting environments, intelligent robots need to simultaneously reason with commonsense knowledge and plan under uncertainty. Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs), are good at planning under uncertainty toward maximizing long-term rewards; P-LOG, a declarative programming language under Answer Set semantics, is strong in commonsense reasoning. In this paper, we present a novel algorithm called iCORPP to dynamically reason about, and construct (PO)MDPs using P-LOG. iCORPP successfully shields exogenous domain attributes from (PO)MDPs, which limits computational complexity and enables (PO)MDPs to adapt to the value changes these attributes produce. We conduct a number of experimental trials using two example problems in simulation and demonstrate iCORPP on a real robot. Results show significant improvements compared to competitive baselines.

The formalism of multi-objective influence diagrams has recently been developed for modeling and solving sequential decision problems under uncertainty and multiple objectives. Since utility values representing the decision maker's preferences are only partially ordered (e.g., by the Pareto order) we no longer have a unique maximal value of expected utility, but a set of them. Computing the set of maximal values of expected utility and the corresponding policies can be computationally very challenging. In this paper, we consider alternative notions of optimality, one of the most important one being the notion of possibly optimal, namely optimal in at least one scenario compatible with the inter-objective tradeoffs. We develop a variable elimination algorithm for computing the set of possibly optimal expected utility values, prove formally its correctness, and compare variants of the algorithm experimentally.