Learning the directed acyclic graph (DAG) structure of a Bayesian network from observational data is a notoriously difficult problem for which many hardness results are known. In this paper we propose a provably polynomial-time algorithm for learning sparse Gaussian Bayesian networks with equal noise variance --- a class of Bayesian networks for which the DAG structure can be uniquely identified from observational data --- under high-dimensional settings. We show that $O(k^4 \log p)$ number of samples suffices for our method to recover the true DAG structure with high probability, where $p$ is the number of variables and $k$ is the maximum Markov blanket size. We obtain our theoretical guarantees under a condition called Restricted Strong Adjacency Faithfulness, which is strictly weaker than strong faithfulness --- a condition that other methods based on conditional independence testing need for their success. The sample complexity of our method matches the information-theoretic limits in terms of the dependence on $p$. We show that our method out-performs existing state-of-the-art methods for learning Gaussian Bayesian networks in terms of recovering the true DAG structure while being comparable in speed to heuristic methods.

In this paper, we study the information-theoretic limits of learning the structure of Bayesian networks (BNs), on discrete as well as continuous random variables, from a finite number of samples. We show that the minimum number of samples required by any procedure to recover the correct structure grows as $\Omega(m)$ and $\Omega(k \log m + (k^2/m))$ for non-sparse and sparse BNs respectively, where $m$ is the number of variables and $k$ is the maximum number of parents per node. We provide a simple recipe, based on an extension of the Fano's inequality, to obtain information-theoretic limits of structure recovery for any exponential family BN. We instantiate our result for specific conditional distributions in the exponential family to characterize the fundamental limits of learning various commonly used BNs, such as conditional probability table based networks, gaussian BNs, noisy-OR networks, and logistic regression networks. En route to obtaining our main results, we obtain tight bounds on the number of sparse and non-sparse essential-DAGs. Finally, as a byproduct, we recover the information-theoretic limits of sparse variable selection for logistic regression.

So, you have been thinking about picking up machine learning, but given the confusing state of the web you don't know where to begin? Or maybe you have finished the first 7 steps and are looking for some follow-up material, beyond the introductory? This post is the second installment of the 7 Steps to Mastering Machine Learning in Python series (since there are 2 parts, I guess it now qualifies as a series). If you have started with the original post, you should already be satisfactorily up to speed, skill-wise. If not, you may want to review that post first, which may take some time, depending on your current level of understanding; however, I assure you that doing so will be worth your effort.

Restricted Boltzmann machines~(RBMs) and conditional RBMs~(CRBMs) are popular models for a wide range of applications. In previous work, learning on such models has been dominated by contrastive divergence~(CD) and its variants. Belief propagation~(BP) algorithms are believed to be slow for structured prediction on conditional RBMs~(e.g., Mnih et al. [2011]), and not as good as CD when applied in learning~(e.g., Larochelle et al. [2012]). In this work, we present a matrix-based implementation of belief propagation algorithms on CRBMs, which is easily scalable to tens of thousands of visible and hidden units. We demonstrate that, in both maximum likelihood and max-margin learning, training conditional RBMs with BP as the inference routine can provide significantly better results than current state-of-the-art CD methods on structured prediction problems. We also include practical guidelines on training CRBMs with BP, and some insights on the interaction of learning and inference algorithms for CRBMs.

We draw a formal connection between using synthetic training data to optimize neural network parameters and approximate, Bayesian, model-based reasoning. In particular, training a neural network using synthetic data can be viewed as learning a proposal distribution generator for approximate inference in the synthetic-data generative model. We demonstrate this connection in a recognition task where we develop a novel Captcha-breaking architecture and train it using synthetic data, demonstrating both state-of-the-art performance and a way of computing task-specific posterior uncertainty. Using a neural network trained this way, we also demonstrate successful breaking of real-world Captchas currently used by Facebook and Wikipedia. Reasoning from these empirical results and drawing connections with Bayesian modeling, we discuss the robustness of synthetic data results and suggest important considerations for ensuring good neural network generalization when training with synthetic data.

We consider multi-class classification where the predictor has a hierarchical structure that allows for a very large number of labels both at train and test time. The predictive power of such models can heavily depend on the structure of the tree, and although past work showed how to learn the tree structure, it expected that the feature vectors remained static. We provide a novel algorithm to simultaneously perform representation learning for the input data and learning of the hierarchi- cal predictor. Our approach optimizes an objec- tive function which favors balanced and easily- separable multi-way node partitions. We theoret- ically analyze this objective, showing that it gives rise to a boosting style property and a bound on classification error. We next show how to extend the algorithm to conditional density estimation. We empirically validate both variants of the al- gorithm on text classification and language mod- eling, respectively, and show that they compare favorably to common baselines in terms of accu- racy and running time.

In an end-to-end dialog system, the aim of dialog state tracking is to accurately estimate a compact representation of the current dialog status from a sequence of noisy observations produced by the speech recognition and the natural language understanding modules. This paper introduces a novel method of dialog state tracking based on the general paradigm of machine reading and proposes to solve it using an End-to-End Memory Network, MemN2N, a memory-enhanced neural network architecture. We evaluate the proposed approach on the second Dialog State Tracking Challenge (DSTC-2) dataset. The corpus has been converted for the occasion in order to frame the hidden state variable inference as a question-answering task based on a sequence of utterances extracted from a dialog. We show that the proposed tracker gives encouraging results. Then, we propose to extend the DSTC-2 dataset with specific reasoning capabilities requirement like counting, list maintenance, yes-no question answering and indefinite knowledge management. Finally, we present encouraging results using our proposed MemN2N based tracking model.

Many generative models can be expressed as a differentiable function of random inputs drawn from some simple probability density. This framework includes both deep generative architectures such as Variational Autoencoders and a large class of procedurally defined simulator models. We present a method for performing efficient MCMC inference in such models when conditioning on observations of the model output. For some models this offers an asymptotically exact inference method where Approximate Bayesian Computation might otherwise be employed. We use the intuition that inference corresponds to integrating a density across the manifold corresponding to the set of inputs consistent with the observed outputs. This motivates the use of a constrained variant of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo which leverages the smooth geometry of the manifold to coherently move between inputs exactly consistent with observations.

Bayesian inference is the process of analyzing statistical models with the incorporation of prior knowledge about the model or model parameters. The root of such inference is Bayes' theorem: In this formula mu and tau, sometimes known as hyperparameters, are also known. The following graph shows the prior, likelihood, and posterior for theta. In some simple problems such as the previous normal mean inference example, it is easy to figure out the posterior distribution in a closed form. But in general problems that involve non-conjugate priors, the posterior distributions are difficult or impossible to compute analytically.

In this post, we consider different approaches for time series modeling. The forecasting approaches using linear models, ARIMA alpgorithm, XGBoost machine learning algorithm are described. Results of different model combinations are shown. For probabilistic modeling the approaches using copulas and Bayesian inference are considered. Time series analysis, especially forecasting, is an important problem of modern predictive analytics.