Online knowledge repositories typically rely on their users or dedicated editors to evaluate the reliability of their content. These evaluations can be viewed as noisy measurements of both information reliability and information source trustworthiness. Can we leverage these noisy evaluations, often biased, to distill a robust, unbiased and interpretable measure of both notions? In this paper, we argue that the temporal traces left by these noisy evaluations give cues on the reliability of the information and the trustworthiness of the sources. Then, we propose a temporal point process modeling framework that links these temporal traces to robust, unbiased and interpretable notions of information reliability and source trustworthiness. Furthermore, we develop an efficient convex optimization procedure to learn the parameters of the model from historical traces. Experiments on real-world data gathered from Wikipedia and Stack Overflow show that our modeling framework accurately predicts evaluation events, provides an interpretable measure of information reliability and source trustworthiness, and yields interesting insights about real-world events.

The intersection of causal inference and machine learning is a rapidly advancing field. We propose a new approach, the method of direct estimation, that draws on both traditions in order to obtain nonparametric estimates of treatment effects. The approach focuses on estimating the effect of fluctuations in a treatment variable on an outcome. A tensor-spline implementation enables rich interactions between functional bases allowing for the approach to capture treatment/covariate interactions. We show how new innovations in Bayesian sparse modeling readily handle the proposed framework, and then document its performance in simulation and applied examples. Furthermore we show how the method of direct estimation can easily extend to structural estimators commonly used in a variety of disciplines, like instrumental variables, mediation analysis, and sequential g-estimation.

Rating platforms enable large-scale collection of user opinion about items (products, other users, etc.). However, many untrustworthy users give fraudulent ratings for excessive monetary gains. In the paper, we present FairJudge, a system to identify such fraudulent users. We propose three metrics: (i) the fairness of a user that quantifies how trustworthy the user is in rating the products, (ii) the reliability of a rating that measures how reliable the rating is, and (iii) the goodness of a product that measures the quality of the product. Intuitively, a user is fair if it provides reliable ratings that are close to the goodness of the product. We formulate a mutually recursive definition of these metrics, and further address cold start problems and incorporate behavioral properties of users and products in the formulation. We propose an iterative algorithm, FairJudge, to predict the values of the three metrics. We prove that FairJudge is guaranteed to converge in a bounded number of iterations, with linear time complexity. By conducting five different experiments on five rating platforms, we show that FairJudge significantly outperforms nine existing algorithms in predicting fair and unfair users. We reported the 100 most unfair users in the Flipkart network to their review fraud investigators, and 80 users were correctly identified (80% accuracy). The FairJudge algorithm is already being deployed at Flipkart.

Nonparametric models are versatile, albeit computationally expensive, tool for modeling mixture models. In this paper, we introduce spectral methods for the two most popular nonparametric models: the Indian Buffet Process (IBP) and the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP). We show that using spectral methods for the inference of nonparametric models are computationally and statistically efficient. In particular, we derive the lower-order moments of the IBP and the HDP, propose spectral algorithms for both models, and provide reconstruction guarantees for the algorithms. For the HDP, we further show that applying hierarchical models on dataset with hierarchical structure, which can be solved with the generalized spectral HDP, produces better solutions to that of flat models regarding likelihood performance.

The calculation of minimum energy paths for transitions such as atomic and/or spin re-arrangements is an important task in many contexts and can often be used to determine the mechanism and rate of transitions. An important challenge is to reduce the computational effort in such calculations, especially when ab initio or electron density functional calculations are used to evaluate the energy since they can require large computational effort. Gaussian process regression is used here to reduce significantly the number of energy evaluations needed to find minimum energy paths of atomic rearrangements. By using results of previous calculations to construct an approximate energy surface and then converge to the minimum energy path on that surface in each Gaussian process iteration, the number of energy evaluations is reduced significantly as compared with regular nudged elastic band calculations. For a test problem involving rearrangements of a heptamer island on a crystal surface, the number of energy evaluations is reduced to less than a fifth. The scaling of the computational effort with the number of degrees of freedom as well as various possible further improvements to this approach are discussed.

In this paper, we derive a Bayesian model order selection rule by using the exponentially embedded family method, termed Bayesian EEF. Unlike many other Bayesian model selection methods, the Bayesian EEF can use vague proper priors and improper noninformative priors to be objective in the elicitation of parameter priors. Moreover, the penalty term of the rule is shown to be the sum of half of the parameter dimension and the estimated mutual information between parameter and observed data. This helps to reveal the EEF mechanism in selecting model orders and may provide new insights into the open problems of choosing an optimal penalty term for model order selection and choosing a good prior from information theoretic viewpoints. The important example of linear model order selection is given to illustrate the algorithms and arguments. Lastly, the Bayesian EEF that uses Jeffreys prior coincides with the EEF rule derived by frequentist strategies. This shows another interesting relationship between the frequentist and Bayesian philosophies for model selection.

RADITIONAL rule based fuzzy systems encode expert opinion in the form of IF-THEN rules and optimise some performance metric (typically mean squared error in predicting a data-set) to obtain the hyper-parameters of the model (like the numeric values defining the shape of the membership functions etc.) [2]-[4]. The rule base is one of the core elements driving the model and slight change in the rule base would significantly affect the performance of the fuzzy inference system. Many automated methods have been proposed where the rule base structure and parameters can be automatically determined [5]-[7]. However interpretability of such models is an issue and various methods have been proposed to alleviate the issue [8]. In the present paper however, we are interested in the actual metric for comparison between different models having different rule bases derived from expert opinion. The comparison metric can nevertheless be embedded within an automated framework to evolve the best model if so required. The most straight forward way of comparing the fuzzy rule bases is to optimise the model parameters based on the prediction error (e.g.

In many scientific and engineering applications, we are tasked with the optimisation of an expensive to evaluate black box function $f$. Traditional settings for this problem assume just the availability of this single function. However, in many cases, cheap approximations to $f$ may be obtainable. For example, the expensive real world behaviour of a robot can be approximated by a cheap computer simulation. We can use these approximations to eliminate low function value regions cheaply and use the expensive evaluations of $f$ in a small but promising region and speedily identify the optimum. We formalise this task as a \emph{multi-fidelity} bandit problem where the target function and its approximations are sampled from a Gaussian process. We develop MF-GP-UCB, a novel method based on upper confidence bound techniques. In our theoretical analysis we demonstrate that it exhibits precisely the above behaviour, and achieves better regret than strategies which ignore multi-fidelity information. Empirically, MF-GP-UCB outperforms such naive strategies and other multi-fidelity methods on several synthetic and real experiments.

We consider a nonlinear state-space model with the state transition and observation functions expressed as basis function expansions. The coefficients in the basis function expansions are learned from data. Using a connection to Gaussian processes we also develop priors on the coefficients, for tuning the model flexibility and to prevent overfitting to data, akin to a Gaussian process state-space model. The priors can alternatively be seen as a regularization, and helps the model in generalizing the data without sacrificing the richness offered by the basis function expansion. To learn the coefficients and other unknown parameters efficiently, we tailor an algorithm using state-of-the-art sequential Monte Carlo methods, which comes with theoretical guarantees on the learning. Our approach indicates promising results when evaluated on a classical benchmark as well as real data.

Automatic Music Transcription (AMT) consists in automatically estimating the notes in an audio recording, through three attributes: onset time, duration and pitch. Probabilistic Latent Component Analysis (PLCA) has become very popular for this task. PLCA is a spectrogram factorization method, able to model a magnitude spectrogram as a linear combination of spectral vectors from a dictionary. Such methods use the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters of the acoustic model. This algorithm presents well-known inherent defaults (local convergence, initialization dependency), making EM-based systems limited in their applications to AMT, particularly in regards to the mathematical form and number of priors. To overcome such limits, we propose in this paper to employ a different estimation framework based on Particle Filtering (PF), which consists in sampling the posterior distribution over larger parameter ranges. This framework proves to be more robust in parameter estimation, more flexible and unifying in the integration of prior knowledge in the system. Note-level transcription accuracies of 61.8 $\%$ and 59.5 $\%$ were achieved on evaluation sound datasets of two different instrument repertoires, including the classical piano (from MAPS dataset) and the marovany zither, and direct comparisons to previous PLCA-based approaches are provided. Steps for further development are also outlined.