Fingerprinting based WLAN indoor positioning system (FWIPS) provides a promising indoor positioning solution to meet the growing interests for indoor location-based services (e.g., indoor way finding or geo-fencing). FWIPS is preferred because it requires no additional infrastructure for deploying an FWIPS and achieving the position estimation by reusing the available WLAN and mobile devices, and capable of providing absolute position estimation. For fingerprinting based positioning (FbP), a model is created to provide reference values of observable features (e.g., signal strength from access point (AP)) as a function of location during offline stage. One widely applied method to build a complete and an accurate reference database (i.e. radio map (RM)) for FWIPS is carrying out a site survey throughout the region of interest (RoI). Along the site survey, the readings of received signal strength (RSS) from all visible APs at each reference point (RP) are collected. This site survey, however, is time-consuming and labor-intensive, especially in the case that the RoI is large (e.g., an airport or a big mall). This bottleneck hinders the wide commercial applications of FWIPS (e.g., proximity promotions in a shopping center). To diminish the cost of site survey, we propose a probabilistic model, which combines fingerprinting based positioning (FbP) and RM generation based on stochastic variational Bayesian inference (SVBI). This SVBI based position and RSS estimation has three properties: i) being able to predict the distribution of the estimated position and RSS, ii) treating each observation of RSS at each RP as an example to learn for FbP and RM generation instead of using the whole RM as an example, and iii) requiring only one time training of the SVBI model for both localization and RSS estimation. These benefits make it outperforms the previous proposed approaches.

Information incompleteness, or ignorance, is an issue that we have to consider in Semantic Web applications. Dempster-Shafer theory has been traditionally applied in information incompleteness situations. On the other hand, logic plays a major role in the Semantic Web community. In this paper, we propose a framework that applies Dempster-Shafer theory in a Description Logic Knowledge Base environment. We name our model a Dempster-Shafer DL Knowledge Base.

Several problems requiere the combination of temporal and spatial reasoning under uncertainty, such as wind prediction for electricity generation in wind farms. In this work we propose a probabilistic spatial-temporal model (PSTM) focused on prediction problems, based on two common properties of these scenarios: sparsity and multivariable mutual information. The proposed spatial-temporal model is essentially a Bayesian network that represents the dependencies between a target variable of interest and a subset of predictor variables in different times and spaces. We developed an algorithm for learning the structure of the model based on a stochastic search of the optimal subset of predictor variables. The proposed model has been applied for wind prediction at different locations in Mexico, using information from several locations at different times. The PSTM is evaluated in terms of predictive accuracy for different time horizons — 1 to 24 hours; and compared to a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) developed for wind prediction. The performance of the PSTM is in general competitive, and in most cases superior to the DBN.

We tackle the problem of providing engineering decision makers with relevant information extracted from data obtained via a process model based on deliberation and voting. We list examples of potential applications from the area of bug-fix scheduling for software, as well as space-vehicles 'go'-'no-go' decision making. In such application domains, important decisions have to be made hastily and therefore the decision factors have to be informed timely of the main issues discovered by the teams. A logic is proposed for reasoning with comments available in such deliberations. Search based algorithms are proposed which recommend the best justifications for a decision and retain the voting decisions for interested parties to tally. We have developed a Bayesian network for generating data by simulation based on probabilistic models that we can train from collected deliberation databases. The data generated in this way was used for evaluating the proposed search algorithm, showing how it can provide better than random recommendations of arguments to decision makers.

Non-impeding noisy-And Trees (NATs) provide a general, expressive, and efficient causal model for conditional probability tables (CPTs) in discrete Bayesian networks (BNs). A BN CPT may either be directly expressed as a NAT model or be compressed into one. Once CPTs in BNs are so expressed or compressed, complexity of inference (both space and time) can be significantly reduced. The most important operation in encoding or compressing CPTs into NAT models is extracting the NAT structure from interaction patterns between causes. The existing method does so by referencing a NAT database and an associated search tree. Although both are constructed offline, their complexity is exponential on the number of causes. In this work, we propose a novel method for NAT extraction from causal interaction patterns based on bipartition of causes. The method does not require the support of a NAT database and the related search tree, making NAT extraction more efficient and flexible.

A central task in discrete Bayesian network (BN) inference is to determine those variables relevant to answer a given query. Two linear algorithms for this task explore the possibly relevant and active parts of a BN, respectively. We empirically compare these two methods along with a variation of each.

A fundamental goal in network neuroscience is to understand how activity in one region drives activity elsewhere, a process referred to as effective connectivity. Here we propose to model this causal interaction using integro-differential equations and causal kernels that allow for a rich analysis of effective connectivity. The approach combines the tractability and flexibility of autoregressive modeling with the biophysical interpretability of dynamic causal modeling. The causal kernels are learned nonparametrically using Gaussian process regression, yielding an efficient framework for causal inference. We construct a novel class of causal covariance functions that enforce the desired properties of the causal kernels, an approach which we call GP CaKe. By construction, the model and its hyperparameters have biophysical meaning and are therefore easily interpretable. We demonstrate the efficacy of GP CaKe on a number of simulations and give an example of a realistic application on magnetoencephalography (MEG) data.

Bayesian optimization through Gaussian process regression is an effective method of optimizing an unknown function for which every measurement is expensive. It approximates the objective function and then recommends a new measurement point to try out. This recommendation is usually selected by optimizing a given acquisition function. After a sufficient number of measurements, a recommendation about the maximum is made. However, a key realization is that the maximum of a Gaussian process is not a deterministic point, but a random variable with a distribution of its own. This distribution cannot be calculated analytically. Our main contribution is an algorithm, inspired by sequential Monte Carlo samplers, that approximates this maximum distribution. Subsequently, by taking samples from this distribution, we enable Thompson sampling to be applied to (armed-bandit) optimization problems with a continuous input space. All this is done without requiring the optimization of a nonlinear acquisition function. Experiments have shown that the resulting optimization method has a competitive performance at keeping the cumulative regret limited.

We propose a data-driven algorithm for the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation of stochastic processes from noisy observations. The primary statistical properties of the sought signal is specified by the penalty function (i.e., negative logarithm of the prior probability density function). Our alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM)-based approach translates the estimation task into successive applications of the proximal mapping of the penalty function. Capitalizing on this direct link, we define the proximal operator as a parametric spline curve and optimize the spline coefficients by minimizing the average reconstruction error for a given training set. The key aspects of our learning method are that the associated penalty function is constrained to be convex and the convergence of the ADMM iterations is proven. As a result of these theoretical guarantees, adaptation of the proposed framework to different levels of measurement noise is extremely simple and does not require any retraining. We apply our method to estimation of both sparse and non-sparse models of L\'{e}vy processes for which the minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimators are available. We carry out a single training session and perform comparisons at various signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) values. Simulations illustrate that the performance of our algorithm is practically identical to the one of the MMSE estimator irrespective of the noise power.

This article provides the first survey of computational models of emotion in reinforcement learning (RL) agents. The survey focuses on agent/robot emotions, and mostly ignores human user emotions. Emotions are recognized as functional in decision-making by influencing motivation and action selection. Therefore, computational emotion models are usually grounded in the agent's decision making architecture, of which RL is an important subclass. Studying emotions in RL-based agents is useful for three research fields. For machine learning (ML) researchers, emotion models may improve learning efficiency. For the interactive ML and human-robot interaction (HRI) community, emotions can communicate state and enhance user investment. Lastly, it allows affective modelling (AM) researchers to investigate their emotion theories in a successful AI agent class. This survey provides background on emotion theory and RL. It systematically addresses 1) from what underlying dimensions (e.g., homeostasis, appraisal) emotions can be derived and how these can be modelled in RL-agents, 2) what types of emotions have been derived from these dimensions, and 3) how these emotions may either influence the learning efficiency of the agent or be useful as social signals. We also systematically compare evaluation criteria, and draw connections to important RL sub-domains like (intrinsic) motivation and model-based RL. In short, this survey provides both a practical overview for engineers wanting to implement emotions in their RL agents, and identifies challenges and directions for future emotion-RL research.