Bayesian structure learning allows inferring Bayesian network structure from data while reasoning about the epistemic uncertainty---a key element towards enabling active causal discovery and designing interventions in real world systems. In this work, we propose a general, fully differentiable framework for Bayesian structure learning (DiBS) that operates in the continuous space of a latent probabilistic graph representation. Contrary to existing work, DiBS is agnostic to the form of the local conditional distributions and allows for joint posterior inference of both the graph structure and the conditional distribution parameters. This makes our formulation directly applicable to posterior inference of nonstandard Bayesian network models, e.g., with nonlinear dependencies encoded by neural networks. Using DiBS, we devise an efficient, general purpose variational inference method for approximating distributions over structural models. In evaluations on simulated and real-world data, our method significantly outperforms related approaches to joint posterior inference.

Sampling-based inference and learning techniques, especially Bayesian inference, provide an essential approach to handling uncertainty in machine learning (ML). As these techniques are increasingly used in daily life, it becomes essential to safeguard the ML systems with various trustworthy-related constraints, such as fairness, safety, interpretability. Mathematically, enforcing these constraints in probabilistic inference can be cast into sampling from intractable distributions subject to general nonlinear constraints, for which practical efficient algorithms are still largely missing. In this work, we propose a family of constrained sampling algorithms which generalize Langevin Dynamics (LD) and Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) to incorporate a moment constraint specified by a general nonlinear function. By exploiting the gradient flow structure of LD and SVGD, we derive two types of algorithms for handling constraints, including a primal-dual gradient approach and the constraint controlled gradient descent approach. We investigate the continuous-time mean-field limit of these algorithms and show that they have O(1/t) convergence under mild conditions. Moreover, the LD variant converges linearly assuming that a log Sobolev like inequality holds. Various numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the efficiency of our algorithms in trustworthy settings.

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a common name for an emerging family of approaches that infer the model parameters when the likelihood is intractable. Existing SBI methods either approximate the likelihood, such as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) or directly model the posterior, such as Sequential Neural Posterior Estimation (SNPE). While ABC is efficient on low-dimensional problems, on higher-dimensional tasks, it is generally outperformed by SNPE, which leverages function approximation. In this paper, we propose Pseudo-Likelihood Inference (PLI), a new method that brings neural approximation into ABC, making it competitive on challenging Bayesian system identification tasks. By utilizing integral probability metrics, we introduce a smooth likelihood kernel with an adaptive bandwidth that is updated based on information-theoretic trust regions. Thanks to this formulation, our method (i) allows for optimizing neural posteriors via gradient descent, (ii) does not rely on summary statistics, and (iii) enables multiple observations as input. In comparison to SNPE, it leads to improved performance when more data is available. The effectiveness of PLI is evaluated on four classical SBI benchmark tasks and on a highly dynamic physical system, showing particular advantages on stochastic simulations and multi-modal posterior landscapes.

Deep generative networks trained via maximum likelihood on a natural image dataset like CIFAR10 often assign high likelihoods to images from datasets with different objects (e.g., SVHN). We refine previous investigations of this failure at anomaly detection for invertible generative networks and provide a clear explanation of it as a combination of model bias and domain prior: Convolutional networks learn similar low-level feature distributions when trained on any natural image dataset and these low-level features dominate the likelihood. Hence, when the discriminative features between inliers and outliers are on a high-level, e.g., object shapes, anomaly detection becomes particularly challenging. To remove the negative impact of model bias and domain prior on detecting high-level differences, we propose two methods, first, using the log likelihood ratios of two identical models, one trained on the in-distribution data (e.g., CIFAR10) and the other one on a more general distribution of images (e.g., 80 Million Tiny Images). We also derive a novel outlier loss for the in-distribution network on samples from the more general distribution to further improve the performance. Secondly, using a multi-scale model like Glow, we show that low-level features are mainly captured at early scales. Therefore, using only the likelihood contribution of the final scale performs remarkably well for detecting high-level feature differences of the out-of-distribution and the in-distribution. This method is especially useful if one does not have access to a suitable general distribution. Overall, our methods achieve strong anomaly detection performance in the unsupervised setting, and only slightly underperform state-of-the-art classifier-based methods in the supervised setting.

Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs.In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves warrants a Bayesian approach, existing methods are (i) overly restrictive, and/or (ii) computationally expensive. We describe the first application of prior-data fitted neural networks (PFNs) in this context. A PFN is a transformer, pre-trained on data generated from a prior, to perform approximate Bayesian inference in a single forward pass. We propose LC-PFN, a PFN trained to extrapolate 10 million artificial right-censored learning curves generated from a parametric prior proposed in prior art using MCMC. We demonstrate that LC-PFN can approximate the posterior predictive distribution more accurately than MCMC, while being over 10 000 times faster. We also show that the same LC-PFN achieves competitive performance extrapolating a total of 20 000 real learning curves from four learning curve benchmarks (LCBench, NAS-Bench-201, Taskset, and PD1) that stem from training a wide range of model architectures (MLPs, CNNs, RNNs, and Transformers) on 53 different datasets with varying input modalities (tabular, image, text, and protein data). Finally, we investigate its potential in the context of model selection and find that a simple LC-PFN based predictive early stopping criterion obtains 2 - 6x speed-ups on 45 of these datasets, at virtually no overhead.

However, due to the intractable partition function, they are typically trained via contrastive divergence for maximum likelihood estimation. In this paper, we propose pseudo-spherical contrastive divergence (PS-CD) to generalize maximum likelihood learning of EBMs. PS-CD is derived from the maximization of a family of strictly proper homogeneous scoring rules, which avoids the computation of the intractable partition function and provides a generalized family of learning objectives that include contrastive divergence as a special case. Moreover, PS-CD allows us to flexibly choose various learning objectives to train EBMs without additional computational cost or variational minimax optimization. Theoretical analysis on the proposed method and extensive experiments on both synthetic data and commonly used image datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and modeling flexibility of PS-CD, as well as its robustness to data contamination, thus showing its superiority over maximum likelihood and $f$-EBMs.

We consider a multi-armed bandit problem with $M$ latent contexts, where an agent interacts with the environment for an episode of $H$ time steps. Depending on the length of the episode, the learner may not be able to estimate accurately the latent context. The resulting partial observation of the environment makes the learning task significantly more challenging. Without any additional structural assumptions, existing techniques to tackle partially observed settings imply the decision maker can learn a near-optimal policy with $O(A)^H$ episodes, but do not promise more. In this work, we show that learning with {\em polynomial} samples in $A$ is possible. We achieve this by using techniques from experiment design. Then, through a method-of-moments approach, we design a procedure that provably learns a near-optimal policy with $O(\poly(A) + \poly(M,H)^{\min(M,H)})$ interactions. In practice, we show that we can formulate the moment-matching via maximum likelihood estimation. In our experiments, this significantly outperforms the worst-case guarantees, as well as existing practical methods.

Can we use spiking neural networks (SNN) as generative models of multi-neuronal recordings, while taking into account that most neurons are unobserved? Modeling the unobserved neurons with large pools of hidden spiking neurons leads to severely underconstrained problems that are hard to tackle with maximum likelihood estimation. In this work, we use coarse-graining and mean-field approximations to derive a bottom-up, neuronally-grounded latent variable model (neuLVM), where the activity of the unobserved neurons is reduced to a low-dimensional mesoscopic description. In contrast to previous latent variable models, neuLVM can be explicitly mapped to a recurrent, multi-population SNN, giving it a transparent biological interpretation. We show, on synthetic spike trains, that a few observed neurons are sufficient for neuLVM to perform efficient model inversion of large SNNs, in the sense that it can recover connectivity parameters, infer single-trial latent population activity, reproduce ongoing metastable dynamics, and generalize when subjected to perturbations mimicking optogenetic stimulation.

Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPM) have recently gained significant attention. DDPMs compose a Markovian process that begins in the data domain and gradually adds noise until reaching pure white noise. DDPMs generate high-quality samples from complex data distributions by defining an inverse process and training a deep neural network to learn this mapping. However, these models are inefficient because they require many diffusion steps to produce aesthetically pleasing samples. Additionally, unlike generative adversarial networks (GANs), the latent space of diffusion models is less interpretable.

Bayesian inference in the space of functions has been an important topic for Bayesian modeling in the past. In this paper, we propose a new solution to this problem called Functional Variational Inference (FVI). In FVI, we minimize a divergence in function space between the variational distribution and the posterior process. This is done by using as functional variational family a new class of flexible distributions called Stochastic Process Generators (SPGs), which are cleverly designed so that the functional ELBO can be estimated efficiently using analytic solutions and mini-batch sampling. FVI can be applied to stochastic process priors when random function samples from those priors are available. Our experiments show that FVI consistently outperforms weight-space and function space VI methods on several tasks, which validates the effectiveness of our approach.