Uncertainty
Introduction To Probabilistic Modeling and Machine Learning • r/datascience
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10 most impressive Research Papers around Artificial Intelligence
Artificial Intelligence research advances are transforming technology as we know it. The AI research community is solving some of the most technology problems related to software and hardware infrastructure, theory and algorithms. Interestingly, the field of AI AI research has drawn acolytes from non-tech field as well. Case in point -- prolific Hollywood actor Kristen Stewart's highly publicized paper on Artificial Intelligence, originally published at Cornell University library's open access site. Stewart co-authored the paper, titled "Bringing Impressionism to Life with Neural Style Transfer in Come Swim" with American poet and literary critic David Shapiro and Adobe Research Engineer Bhautik Joshi.
Bayesian $l_0$ Regularized Least Squares
Bayesian $l_0$-regularized least squares provides a variable selection technique for high dimensional predictors. The challenge in $l_0$ regularization is optimizing a non-convex objective function via search over model space consisting of all possible predictor combinations, a NP-hard task. Spike-and-slab (a.k.a. Bernoulli-Gaussian, BG) priors are the gold standard for Bayesian variable selection, with a caveat of computational speed and scalability. We show that a Single Best Replacement (SBR) algorithm is a fast scalable alternative. Although SBR calculates a sparse posterior mode, we show that it possesses a number of equivalences and optimality properties of a posterior mean. To illustrate our methodology, we provide simulation evidence and a real data example on the statistical properties and computational efficiency of SBR versus direct posterior sampling using spike-and-slab priors. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.
Fixed Points of Belief Propagation -- An Analysis via Polynomial Homotopy Continuation
Knoll, Christian, Pernkopf, Franz, Mehta, Dhagash, Chen, Tianran
Belief propagation (BP) is an iterative method to perform approximate inference on arbitrary graphical models. Whether BP converges and if the solution is a unique fixed point depends on both the structure and the parametrization of the model. To understand this dependence it is interesting to find \emph{all} fixed points. In this work, we formulate a set of polynomial equations, the solutions of which correspond to BP fixed points. To solve such a nonlinear system we present the numerical polynomial-homotopy-continuation (NPHC) method. Experiments on binary Ising models and on error-correcting codes show how our method is capable of obtaining all BP fixed points. On Ising models with fixed parameters we show how the structure influences both the number of fixed points and the convergence properties. We further asses the accuracy of the marginals and weighted combinations thereof. Weighting marginals with their respective partition function increases the accuracy in all experiments. Contrary to the conjecture that uniqueness of BP fixed points implies convergence, we find graphs for which BP fails to converge, even though a unique fixed point exists. Moreover, we show that this fixed point gives a good approximation, and the NPHC method is able to obtain this fixed point.
Forward-Backward Selection with Early Dropping
Borboudakis, Giorgos, Tsamardinos, Ioannis
Forward-backward selection is one of the most basic and commonly-used feature selection algorithms available. It is also general and conceptually applicable to many different types of data. In this paper, we propose a heuristic that significantly improves its running time, while preserving predictive accuracy. The idea is to temporarily discard the variables that are conditionally independent with the outcome given the selected variable set. Depending on how those variables are reconsidered and reintroduced, this heuristic gives rise to a family of algorithms with increasingly stronger theoretical guarantees. In distributions that can be faithfully represented by Bayesian networks or maximal ancestral graphs, members of this algorithmic family are able to correctly identify the Markov blanket in the sample limit. In experiments we show that the proposed heuristic increases computational efficiency by about two orders of magnitude in high-dimensional problems, while selecting fewer variables and retaining predictive performance. Furthermore, we show that the proposed algorithm and feature selection with LASSO perform similarly when restricted to select the same number of variables, making the proposed algorithm an attractive alternative for problems where no (efficient) algorithm for LASSO exists.
Decorrelation of Neutral Vector Variables: Theory and Applications
Ma, Zhanyu, Xue, Jing-Hao, Leijon, Arne, Tan, Zheng-Hua, Yang, Zhen, Guo, Jun
In this paper, we propose novel strategies for neutral vector variable decorrelation. Two fundamental invertible transformations, namely serial nonlinear transformation and parallel nonlinear transformation, are proposed to carry out the decorrelation. For a neutral vector variable, which is not multivariate Gaussian distributed, the conventional principal component analysis (PCA) cannot yield mutually independent scalar variables. With the two proposed transformations, a highly negatively correlated neutral vector can be transformed to a set of mutually independent scalar variables with the same degrees of freedom. We also evaluate the decorrelation performances for the vectors generated from a single Dirichlet distribution and a mixture of Dirichlet distributions. The mutual independence is verified with the distance correlation measurement. The advantages of the proposed decorrelation strategies are intensively studied and demonstrated with synthesized data and practical application evaluations.
High Dimensional Inference with Random Maximum A-Posteriori Perturbations
Hazan, Tamir, Orabona, Francesco, Sarwate, Anand D., Maji, Subhransu, Jaakkola, Tommi
This paper presents a new approach, called perturb-max, for high-dimensional statistical inference that is based on applying random perturbations followed by optimization. This framework injects randomness to maximum a-posteriori (MAP) predictors by randomly perturbing the potential function for the input. A classic result from extreme value statistics asserts that perturb-max operations generate unbiased samples from the Gibbs distribution using high-dimensional perturbations. Unfortunately, the computational cost of generating so many high-dimensional random variables can be prohibitive. However, when the perturbations are of low dimension, sampling the perturb-max prediction is as efficient as MAP optimization. This paper shows that the expected value of perturb-max inference with low dimensional perturbations can be used sequentially to generate unbiased samples from the Gibbs distribution. Furthermore the expected value of the maximal perturbations is a natural bound on the entropy of such perturb-max models. A measure concentration result for perturb-max values shows that the deviation of their sampled average from its expectation decays exponentially in the number of samples, allowing effective approximation of the expectation.
Differentially Private Bayesian Learning on Distributed Data
Heikkilä, Mikko, Lagerspetz, Eemil, Kaski, Samuel, Shimizu, Kana, Tarkoma, Sasu, Honkela, Antti
Many applications of machine learning, for example in health care, would benefit from methods that can guarantee privacy of data subjects. Differential privacy (DP) has become established as a standard for protecting learning results. The standard DP algorithms require a single trusted party to have access to the entire data, which is a clear weakness. We consider DP Bayesian learning in a distributed setting, where each party only holds a single sample or a few samples of the data. We propose a learning strategy based on a secure multi-party sum function for aggregating summaries from data holders and the Gaussian mechanism for DP. Our method builds on an asymptotically optimal and practically efficient DP Bayesian inference with rapidly diminishing extra cost.
Consistent Kernel Density Estimation with Non-Vanishing Bandwidth
Cortés, Efrén Cruz, Scott, Clayton
Consistency of the kernel density estimator requires that the kernel bandwidth tends to zero as the sample size grows. In this paper we investigate the question of whether consistency is possible when the bandwidth is fixed, if we consider a more general class of weighted KDEs. To answer this question in the affirmative, we introduce the fixed-bandwidth KDE (fbKDE), obtained by solving a quadratic program, and prove that it consistently estimates any continuous square-integrable density. We also establish rates of convergence for the fbKDE with radial kernels and the box kernel under appropriate smoothness assumptions. Furthermore, in an experimental study we demonstrate that the fbKDE compares favorably to the standard KDE and the previously proposed variable bandwidth KDE.
Auto-Encoding Sequential Monte Carlo
Le, Tuan Anh, Igl, Maximilian, Jin, Tom, Rainforth, Tom, Wood, Frank
We introduce AESMC: a method for using deep neural networks for simultaneous model learning and inference amortization in a broad family of structured probabilistic models. Starting with an unlabeled dataset and a partially specified underlying generative model, AESMC refines the generative model and learns efficient proposal distributions for SMC for performing inference in this model. Our approach relies on 1) efficiency of SMC in performing inference in structured probabilistic models and 2) flexibility of deep neural networks to model complex conditional probability distributions. We demonstrate that our approach provides a fast, accurate, easy-to-implement, and scalable means for carrying out parameter estimation in high-dimensional statistical models as well as simultaneous model learning and proposal amortization in neural network based models.