In this paper, we consider a novel machine learning problem, that is, learning a classifier from noisy label distributions. In this problem, each instance with a feature vector belongs to at least one group. Then, instead of the true label of each instance, we observe the label distribution of the instances associated with a group, where the label distribution is distorted by an unknown noise. Our goals are to (1) estimate the true label of each instance, and (2) learn a classifier that predicts the true label of a new instance. We propose a probabilistic model that considers true label distributions of groups and parameters that represent the noise as hidden variables. The model can be learned based on a variational Bayesian method. In numerical experiments, we show that the proposed model outperforms existing methods in terms of the estimation of the true labels of instances.

Online review communities are dynamic as users join and leave, adopt new vocabulary, and adapt to evolving trends. Recent work has shown that recommender systems benefit from explicit consideration of user experience. However, prior work assumes a fixed number of discrete experience levels, whereas in reality users gain experience and mature continuously over time. This paper presents a new model that captures the continuous evolution of user experience, and the resulting language model in reviews and other posts. Our model is unsupervised and combines principles of Geometric Brownian Motion, Brownian Motion, and Latent Dirichlet Allocation to trace a smooth temporal progression of user experience and language model respectively. We develop practical algorithms for estimating the model parameters from data and for inference with our model (e.g., to recommend items). Extensive experiments with five real-world datasets show that our model not only fits data better than discrete-model baselines, but also outperforms state-of-the-art methods for predicting item ratings.

Embarrassingly (communication-free) parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are commonly used in learning graphical models. However, MCMC cannot be directly applied in learning topic models because of the quasi-ergodicity problem caused by multimodal distribution of topics. In this paper, we develop an embarrassingly parallel MCMC algorithm for sLDA. Our algorithm works by switching the order of sampled topics combination and labeling variable prediction in sLDA, in which it overcomes the quasi-ergodicity problem because high-dimension topics that follow a multimodal distribution are projected into one-dimension document labels that follow a unimodal distribution. Our empirical experiments confirm that the out-of-sample prediction performance using our embarrassingly parallel algorithm is comparable to non-parallel sLDA while the computation time is significantly reduced.

In this paper we study how to learn stochastic, multimodal transition dynamics in reinforcement learning (RL) tasks. We focus on evaluating transition function estimation, while we defer planning over this model to future work. Stochasticity is a fundamental property of many task environments. However, discriminative function approximators have difficulty estimating multimodal stochasticity. In contrast, deep generative models do capture complex high-dimensional outcome distributions. First we discuss why, amongst such models, conditional variational inference (VI) is theoretically most appealing for model-based RL. Subsequently, we compare different VI models on their ability to learn complex stochasticity on simulated functions, as well as on a typical RL gridworld with multimodal dynamics. Results show VI successfully predicts multimodal outcomes, but also robustly ignores these for deterministic parts of the transition dynamics. In summary, we show a robust method to learn multimodal transitions using function approximation, which is a key preliminary for model-based RL in stochastic domains.

Circular variables arise in a multitude of data-modelling contexts ranging from robotics to the social sciences, but they have been largely overlooked by the machine learning community. This paper partially redresses this imbalance by extending some standard probabilistic modelling tools to the circular domain. First we introduce a new multivariate distribution over circular variables, called the multivariate Generalised von Mises (mGvM) distribution. This distribution can be constructed by restricting and renormalising a general multivariate Gaussian distribution to the unit hyper-torus. Previously proposed multivariate circular distributions are shown to be special cases of this construction. Second, we introduce a new probabilistic model for circular regression, that is inspired by Gaussian Processes, and a method for probabilistic principal component analysis with circular hidden variables. These models can leverage standard modelling tools (e.g. covariance functions and methods for automatic relevance determination). Third, we show that the posterior distribution in these models is a mGvM distribution which enables development of an efficient variational free-energy scheme for performing approximate inference and approximate maximum-likelihood learning.

The article describe the model, derivation, and implementation of variational Bayesian inference for linear and logistic regression, both with and without automatic relevance determination. It has the dual function of acting as a tutorial for the derivation of variational Bayesian inference for simple models, as well as documenting, and providing brief examples for the MATLABfunctions that implement this inference. These functions are freely available online. 1. Introduction Linear and logistic regression are essential workhorses of statistical analysis, whose Bayesian treatment has received much recent attention (Gelman et al., 2013; Bishop, 2006; Murphy, 2012; Hastie et al., 2011). These allow specifying the a-priori uncertainty and infer a-posteriori uncertainty about regression coefficients explic-ity and hierarchically, by, for example, specifying how uncertain we are a-priori that these coefficients are small. However, Bayesian inference in such hierarchical models quickly becomes intractable, such that recent effort has focused on approximate inference, like Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (Gilks et al., 1995), or variational Bayesian approximation (Beal, 2003; Bishop, 2006; Murphy, 2012). Here, we describe such a variational treatment and implementation of Bayesian hierarchical models for both linear and logistic regression. Even though neither the statistical models nor their Bayesian approximation are particularly novel, the article provides a tutorial-style introduction to the derivation of their algorithms, together with a MATLABimplementation of these algorithms.

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is now an established technique for statistical inference used in cases where the likelihood function is computationally expensive or not available. It relies on the use of a model that is specified in the form of a simulator, and approximates the likelihood at a parameter $\theta$ by simulating auxiliary data sets $x$ and evaluating the distance of $x$ from the true data $y$. However, ABC is not computationally feasible in cases where using the simulator for each $\theta$ is very expensive. This paper investigates this situation in cases where a cheap, but approximate, simulator is available. The approach is to employ delayed acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) within an ABC sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler in order to, in a first stage of the kernel, use the cheap simulator to rule out parts of the parameter space that are not worth exploring, so that the "true" simulator is only run (in the second stage of the kernel) where there is a reasonable chance of accepting proposed values of $\theta$. We show that this approach can be used quite automatically, with the only tuning parameter choice additional to ABC-SMC being the number of particles we wish to carry through to the second stage of the kernel. Applications to stochastic differential equation models and latent doubly intractable distributions are presented.

One of the main computational and scientific challenges in the modern age is to extract useful information from unstructured texts. Topic models are one popular machine-learning approach which infers the latent topical structure of a collection of documents. Despite their success --- in particular of its most widely used variant called Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) --- and numerous applications in sociology, history, and linguistics, topic models are known to suffer from severe conceptual and practical problems, e.g. a lack of justification for the Bayesian priors, discrepancies with statistical properties of real texts, and the inability to properly choose the number of topics. Here, we approach the problem of identifying topical structures by representing text corpora as bipartite networks of documents and words and using methods from community detection in complex networks, in particular stochastic block models (SBM). We show that our SBM-based approach constitutes a more principled and versatile framework for topic modeling solving the intrinsic limitations of Dirichlet-based models through a more general choice of nonparametric priors. It automatically detects the number of topics and hierarchically clusters both the words and documents. In practice, we demonstrate through the analysis of artificial and real corpora that our approach outperforms LDA in terms of statistical model selection.

Consider a probabilistic model with joint distribution p(x, z) where x are data and z are latent variables and/or random parameters. Suppose that exact inference in p(x, z) is intractable which means that the posterior distribution p(z x) p(x, z) p(x, z)dz, is difficult to compute due to the normalizing constant p(x) p(x, z)dz that represents the probability of the data and it is known as evidence or marginal likelihood. The marginal likelihood is essential for estimation of any extra parameters in p(x) or for model comparison. Approximate inference algorithms target to approximate p(z x) and/or p(x). Two general frameworks, that we briefly review next, are based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [33, 2] and variational inference (VI) [17, 40].

Describing the dimension reduction (DR) techniques by means of probabilistic models has recently been given special attention. Probabilistic models, in addition to a better interpretability of the DR methods, provide a framework for further extensions of such algorithms. One of the new approaches to the probabilistic DR methods is to preserving the internal structure of data. It is meant that it is not necessary that the data first be converted from the matrix or tensor format to the vector format in the process of dimensionality reduction. In this paper, a latent variable model for matrix-variate data for canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is proposed. Since in general there is not any analytical maximum likelihood solution for this model, we present two approaches for learning the parameters. The proposed methods are evaluated using the synthetic data in terms of convergence and quality of mappings. Also, real data set is employed for assessing the proposed methods with several probabilistic and none-probabilistic CCA based approaches. The results confirm the superiority of the proposed methods with respect to the competing algorithms. Moreover, this model can be considered as a framework for further extensions.