In essence, people who interact with advanced technology want to be able to trust it appropriately, and then act on that trust. In interpersonal relationships, and otherwise, humans act largely based on trust. For example, a supervisor asks a subordinate to accomplish a task based on several factors that indicate they can trust them to accomplish that task. When consumers make purchases, they do so with trust that the product will perform as promised. Likewise, when using something like an autonomous vehicle, the user must be able to trust it appropriately in order to use it properly. With the rapid advancement of the capabilities of intelligent computing technology to do tasks that were previously assumed to be too complicated for computers, there has been much recent discussion regarding how humans can trust this technology - although the connection to trust is not always made explicit, per se.

Nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) has been actively investigated and used in a wide range of problems in the past decade. A significant amount of attention has been given to develop NMF algorithms that are suitable to model time series with strong temporal dependencies. In this paper, we propose a novel state-space approach to perform dynamic NMF (D-NMF). In the proposed probabilistic framework, the NMF coefficients act as the state variables and their dynamics are modeled using a multi-lag nonnegative vector autoregressive (N-VAR) model within the process equation. We use expectation maximization and propose a maximum-likelihood estimation framework to estimate the basis matrix and the N-VAR model parameters. Interestingly, the N-VAR model parameters are obtained by simply applying NMF. Moreover, we derive a maximum a posteriori estimate of the state variables (i.e., the NMF coefficients) that is based on a prediction step and an update step, similarly to the Kalman filter. We illustrate the benefits of the proposed approach using different numerical simulations where D-NMF significantly outperforms its static counterpart. Experimental results for three different applications show that the proposed approach outperforms two state-of-the-art NMF approaches that exploit temporal dependencies, namely a nonnegative hidden Markov model and a frame stacking approach, while it requires less memory and computational power.

A latent space model for a family of random graphs assigns real-valued vectors to nodes of the graph such that edge probabilities are determined by latent positions. Latent space models provide a natural statistical framework for graph visualizing and clustering. A latent space model of particular interest is the Random Dot Product Graph (RDPG), which can be fit using an efficient spectral method; however, this method is based on a heuristic that can fail, even in simple cases. Here, we consider a closely related latent space model, the Logistic RDPG, which uses a logistic link function to map from latent positions to edge likelihoods. Over this model, we show that asymptotically exact maximum likelihood inference of latent position vectors can be achieved using an efficient spectral method. Our method involves computing top eigenvectors of a normalized adjacency matrix and scaling eigenvectors using a regression step. The novel regression scaling step is an essential part of the proposed method. In simulations, we show that our proposed method is more accurate and more robust than common practices. We also show the effectiveness of our approach over standard real networks of the karate club and political blogs.

The generation of preferences represented as CP-nets for experiments and empirical testing has typically been done in an ad hoc manner that may have introduced a large statistical bias in previous experimental work. We present novel polynomial-time algorithms for generating CP-nets with n nodes and maximum in-degree c uniformly at random. We extend this result to several statistical cultures commonly used in the social choice and preference reasoning literature. A CP-net is composed of both a graph and underlying cp-statements; our algorithm is the first to provably generate both the graph structure and cp-statements, and hence the underlying preference orders themselves, uniformly at random. We have released this code as a free and open source project. We use the uniform generation algorithm to investigate the maximum and expected flipping lengths, i.e., the maximum length over all outcomes o and o', of a minimal proof that o is preferred to o'. Using our new statistical evidence, we conjecture that, for CP-nets with binary variables and complete conditional preference tables, the expected flipping length is polynomial in the number of preference variables. This has positive implications for the usability of CP-nets as compact preference models.

We study the problem of self-interested planning under uncertainty in settings shared with more than a thousand other agents, each of which plans at its own individual level. We refer to such large numbers of agents as an agent population. The decision-theoretic formalism of interactive partially observable Markov decision process (I-POMDP) is used to model the agent's self-interested planning. The first contribution of this article is a method for drastically scaling the finitely-nested I-POMDP to certain agent populations for the first time. Our method exploits two types of structure that is often exhibited by agent populations -- anonymity and context-specific independence. We present a variant called the many-agent I-POMDP that models both these types of structure to plan efficiently under uncertainty in multiagent settings. In particular, the complexity of the belief update and solution in the many-agent I-POMDP is polynomial in the number of agents compared with the exponential growth that challenges the original framework. While exploiting structure helps mitigate the curse of many agents, the well-known curse of history that afflicts I-POMDPs continues to challenge scalability in terms of the planning horizon. The second contribution of this article is an application of the branch-and-bound scheme to reduce the exponential growth of the search tree for look ahead. For this, we introduce new fast-computing upper and lower bounds for the exact value function of the many-agent I-POMDP. This speeds up the look-ahead computations without trading off optimality, and reduces both memory and run time complexity. The third contribution is a comprehensive empirical evaluation of the methods on three new problems domains -- policing large protests, controlling traffic congestion at a busy intersection, and improving the AI for the popular Clash of Clans multiplayer game. We demonstrate the feasibility of exact self-interested planning in these large problems, and that our methods for speeding up the planning are effective. Altogether, these contributions represent a principled and significant advance toward moving self-interested planning under uncertainty to real-world applications.

This work introduces a method to tune a sequence-based generative model for molecular de novo design that through augmented episodic likelihood can learn to generate structures with certain specified desirable properties. We demonstrate how this model can execute a range of tasks such as generating analogues to a query structure and generating compounds predicted to be active against a biological target. As a proof of principle, the model is first trained to generate molecules that do not contain sulphur. As a second example, the model is trained to generate analogues to the drug Celecoxib, a technique that could be used for scaffold hopping or library expansion starting from a single molecule. Finally, when tuning the model towards generating compounds predicted to be active against the dopamine receptor type 2, the model generates structures of which more than 95% are predicted to be active, including experimentally confirmed actives that have not been included in either the generative model nor the activity prediction model.

A reliable, accurate, and affordable positioning service is highly required in wireless networks. In this paper, the novel Message Passing Hybrid Localization (MPHL) algorithm is proposed to solve the problem of cooperative distributed localization using distance and direction estimates. This hybrid approach combines two sensing modalities to reduce the uncertainty in localizing the network nodes. A statistical model is formulated for the problem, and approximate minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimates of the node locations are computed. The proposed MPHL is a distributed algorithm based on belief propagation (BP) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. It improves the identifiability of the localization problem and reduces its sensitivity to the anchor node geometry, compared to distance-only or direction-only localization techniques. For example, the unknown location of a node can be found if it has only a single neighbor; and a whole network can be localized using only a single anchor node. Numerical results are presented showing that the average localization error is significantly reduced in almost every simulation scenario, about 50% in most cases, compared to the competing algorithms.

Releasing full data records is one of the most challenging problems in data privacy. On the one hand, many of the popular techniques such as data de-identification are problematic because of their dependence on the background knowledge of adversaries. On the other hand, rigorous methods such as the exponential mechanism for differential privacy are often computationally impractical to use for releasing high dimensional data or cannot preserve high utility of original data due to their extensive data perturbation. This paper presents a criterion called plausible deniability that provides a formal privacy guarantee, notably for releasing sensitive datasets: an output record can be released only if a certain amount of input records are indistinguishable, up to a privacy parameter. This notion does not depend on the background knowledge of an adversary. Also, it can efficiently be checked by privacy tests. We present mechanisms to generate synthetic datasets with similar statistical properties to the input data and the same format. We study this technique both theoretically and experimentally. A key theoretical result shows that, with proper randomization, the plausible deniability mechanism generates differentially private synthetic data. We demonstrate the efficiency of this generative technique on a large dataset; it is shown to preserve the utility of original data with respect to various statistical analysis and machine learning measures.

The problem of low rank matrix completion is considered in this paper. To exploit the underlying low-rank structure of the data matrix, we propose a hierarchical Gaussian prior model, where columns of the low-rank matrix are assumed to follow a Gaussian distribution with zero mean and a common precision matrix, and a Wishart distribution is specified as a hyperprior over the precision matrix. We show that such a hierarchical Gaussian prior has the potential to encourage a low-rank solution. Based on the proposed hierarchical prior model, a variational Bayesian method is developed for matrix completion, where the generalized approximate massage passing (GAMP) technique is embedded into the variational Bayesian inference in order to circumvent cumbersome matrix inverse operations. Simulation results show that our proposed method demonstrates superiority over existing state-of-the-art matrix completion methods.