Uncertainty
Roll-back Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
Yi, Kexin, Doshi-Velez, Finale
We propose a new framework for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) on truncated probability distributions with smooth underlying density functions. Traditional HMC requires computing the gradient of potential function associated with the target distribution, and therefore does not perform its full power on truncated distributions due to lack of continuity and differentiability. In our framework, we introduce a sharp sigmoid factor in the density function to approximate the probability drop at the truncation boundary. The target potential function is approximated by a new potential which smoothly extends to the entire sample space. HMC is then performed on the approximate potential. While our method is easy to implement and applies to a wide range of problems, it also achieves comparable computational efficiency on various sampling tasks compared to other baseline methods. RBHMC also gives rise to a new approach for Bayesian inference on constrained spaces.
A Brief Introduction to Machine Learning for Engineers
Department of Informatics, King's College London; osvaldo.simeone@kcl.ac.uk ABSTRACT This monograph aims at providing an introduction to key concepts, algorithms, and theoretical frameworks in machine learning, including supervised and unsupervised learning, statistical learning theory, probabilistic graphical models and approximate inference. The intended readership consists of electrical engineers with a background in probability and linear algebra. The treatment builds on first principles, and organizes the main ideas according to clearly defined categories, such as discriminative and generative models, frequentist and Bayesian approaches, exact and approximate inference, directed and undirected models, and convex and non-convex optimization. The mathematical framework uses information-theoretic measures as a unifying tool. The text offers simple and reproducible numerical examples providing insights into key motivations and conclusions. Rather than providing exhaustive details on the existing myriad solutions in each specific category, for which the reader is referred to textbooks and papers, this monograph is meant as an entry point for an engineer into the literature on machine learning.
Entropic Determinants
Granziol, Diego, Roberts, Stephen
The ability of many powerful machine learning algorithms to deal with large data sets without compromise is often hampered by computationally expensive linear algebra tasks, of which calculating the log determinant is a canonical example. In this paper we demonstrate the optimality of Maximum Entropy methods in approximating such calculations. We prove the equivalence between mean value constraints and sample expectations in the big data limit, that Covariance matrix eigenvalue distributions can be completely defined by moment information and that the reduction of the self entropy of a maximum entropy proposal distribution, achieved by adding more moments reduces the KL divergence between the proposal and true eigenvalue distribution. We empirically verify our results on a variety of SparseSuite matrices and establish best practices.
Distributed Bayesian Learning with Stochastic Natural-gradient Expectation Propagation and the Posterior Server
Hasenclever, Leonard, Webb, Stefan, Lienart, Thibaut, Vollmer, Sebastian, Lakshminarayanan, Balaji, Blundell, Charles, Teh, Yee Whye
This paper makes two contributions to Bayesian machine learning algorithms. Firstly, we propose stochastic natural gradient expectation propagation (SNEP), a novel alternative to expectation propagation (EP), a popular variational inference algorithm. SNEP is a black box variational algorithm, in that it does not require any simplifying assumptions on the distribution of interest, beyond the existence of some Monte Carlo sampler for estimating the moments of the EP tilted distributions. Further, as opposed to EP which has no guarantee of convergence, SNEP can be shown to be convergent, even when using Monte Carlo moment estimates. Secondly, we propose a novel architecture for distributed Bayesian learning which we call the posterior server. The posterior server allows scalable and robust Bayesian learning in cases where a data set is stored in a distributed manner across a cluster, with each compute node containing a disjoint subset of data. An independent Monte Carlo sampler is run on each compute node, with direct access only to the local data subset, but which targets an approximation to the global posterior distribution given all data across the whole cluster. This is achieved by using a distributed asynchronous implementation of SNEP to pass messages across the cluster. We demonstrate SNEP and the posterior server on distributed Bayesian learning of logistic regression and neural networks. Keywords: Distributed Learning, Large Scale Learning, Deep Learning, Bayesian Learn- ing, Variational Inference, Expectation Propagation, Stochastic Approximation, Natural Gradient, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Parameter Server, Posterior Server.
Quantification of observed prior and likelihood information in parametric Bayesian modeling
Two data-dependent information metrics are developed to quantify the information of the prior and likelihood functions within a parametric Bayesian model, one of which is closely related to the reference priors from Berger, Bernardo, and Sun, and information measure introduced by Lindley. A combination of theoretical, empirical, and computational support provides evidence that these information-theoretic metrics may be useful diagnostic tools when performing a Bayesian analysis.
Robotics Automation Journals Peer Reviewed
Robotics and Automation deals with manufacture and applications of robots and computer systems for their control, sensory feedback, and information technology to reduce the need for human work. The journal provides an Open Access platform to publish the latest contributions in the field of robotics, automation technologies, robotic surgery, intelligent robotics, mechatronics, and biomimetics novel and biologically-inspired robotics, modelling, identification and control of robotic systems, biomedical, rehabilitation and surgical robotics, exoskeletons, prosthetics and artificial organs, AI, neural networks and fuzzy logic in robotics etc. This top best scholarly journal is using Editorial Manager System for online manuscript submission, review and tracking. Editorial board members of the Robotics & Automation or outside experts review manuscripts; at least two independent reviewer's approval followed by the editor is required for the acceptance of any citable manuscript. The journal includes a wide range of fields in its discipline to create a platform for the authors to make their contribution towards the journal and the editorial office promises a peer review process for the submitted manuscripts for the quality of publishing.
Conditional independence testing based on a nearest-neighbor estimator of conditional mutual information
Conditional independence testing is a fundamental problem underlying causal discovery and a particularly challenging task in the presence of nonlinear and high-dimensional dependencies. Here a fully non-parametric test for continuous data based on conditional mutual information combined with a local permutation scheme is presented. Through a nearest neighbor approach, the test efficiently adapts also to non-smooth distributions due to strongly nonlinear dependencies. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the test reliably simulates the null distribution even for small sample sizes and with high-dimensional conditioning sets. The test is better calibrated than kernel-based tests utilizing an analytical approximation of the null distribution, especially for non-smooth densities, and reaches the same or higher power levels. Combining the local permutation scheme with the kernel tests leads to better calibration, but suffers in power. For smaller sample sizes and lower dimensions, the test is faster than random fourier feature-based kernel tests if the permutation scheme is (embarrassingly) parallelized, but the runtime increases more sharply with sample size and dimensionality. Thus, more theoretical research to analytically approximate the null distribution and speed up the estimation for larger sample sizes is desirable.
Fast Adaptation in Generative Models with Generative Matching Networks
Bartunov, Sergey, Vetrov, Dmitry P.
Despite recent advances, the remaining bottlenecks in deep generative models are necessity of extensive training and difficulties with generalization from small number of training examples. We develop a new generative model called Generative Matching Network which is inspired by the recently proposed matching networks for one-shot learning in discriminative tasks. By conditioning on the additional input dataset, our model can instantly learn new concepts that were not available in the training data but conform to a similar generative process. The proposed framework does not explicitly restrict diversity of the conditioning data and also does not require an extensive inference procedure for training or adaptation. Our experiments on the Omniglot dataset demonstrate that Generative Matching Networks significantly improve predictive performance on the fly as more additional data is available and outperform existing state of the art conditional generative models.
Reinforcement Learning-based Thermal Comfort Control for Vehicle Cabins
Brusey, James, Hintea, Diana, Gaura, Elena, Beloe, Neil
Vehicle climate control systems aim to keep passengers thermally comfortable. However, current systems control temperature rather than thermal comfort and tend to be energy hungry, which is of particular concern when considering electric vehicles. This paper poses energy-efficient vehicle comfort control as a Markov Decision Process, which is then solved numerically using Sarsa({\lambda}) and an empirically validated, single-zone, 1D thermal model of the cabin. The resulting controller was tested in simulation using 200 randomly selected scenarios and found to exceed the performance of bang-bang, proportional, simple fuzzy logic, and commercial controllers with 23%, 43%, 40%, 56% increase, respectively. Compared to the next best performing controller, energy consumption is reduced by 13% while the proportion of time spent thermally comfortable is increased by 23%. These results indicate that this is a viable approach that promises to translate into substantial comfort and energy improvements in the car.
Approximation Complexity of Maximum A Posteriori Inference in Sum-Product Networks
Conaty, Diarmaid, Mauá, Denis D., de Campos, Cassio P.
We discuss the computational complexity of approximating maximum a posteriori inference in sum-product networks. We first show NP-hardness in trees of height two by a reduction from maximum independent set; this implies non-approximability within a sublinear factor. We show that this is a tight bound, as we can find an approximation within a linear factor in networks of height two. We then show that, in trees of height three, it is NP-hard to approximate the problem within a factor $2^{f(n)}$ for any sublinear function $f$ of the size of the input $n$. Again, this bound is tight, as we prove that the usual max-product algorithm finds (in any network) approximations within factor $2^{c \cdot n}$ for some constant $c < 1$. Last, we present a simple algorithm, and show that it provably produces solutions at least as good as, and potentially much better than, the max-product algorithm. We empirically analyze the proposed algorithm against max-product using synthetic and realistic networks.