We propose a novel algorithm for sequential matrix completion in a recommender system setting, where the $(i,j)$th entry of the matrix corresponds to a user $i$'s rating of product $j$. The objective of the algorithm is to provide a sequential policy for user-product pair recommendation which will yield the highest possible ratings after a finite time horizon. The algorithm uses a Gamma process factor model with two posterior-focused bandit policies, Thompson Sampling and Information-Directed Sampling. While Thompson Sampling shows competitive performance in simulations, state-of-the-art performance is obtained from Information-Directed Sampling, which makes its recommendations based off a ratio between the expected reward and a measure of information gain. To our knowledge, this is the first implementation of Information Directed Sampling on large real datasets. This approach contributes to a recent line of research on bandit approaches to collaborative filtering including Kawale et al. (2015), Li et al. (2010), Bresler et al. (2014), Li et al. (2016), Deshpande & Montanari (2012), and Zhao et al. (2013). The setting of this paper, as has been noted in Kawale et al. (2015) and Zhao et al. (2013), presents significant challenges to bounding regret after finite horizons. We discuss these challenges in relation to simpler models for bandits with side information, such as linear or gaussian process bandits, and hope the experiments presented here motivate further research toward theoretical guarantees.

Identifying arbitrary topologies of power networks in real time is a computationally hard problem due to the number of hypotheses that grows exponentially with the network size. A new "Learning-to-Infer" variational inference method is developed for efficient inference of every line status in the network. Optimizing the variational model is transformed to and solved as a discriminative learning problem based on Monte Carlo samples generated with power flow simulations. A major advantage of the developed Learning-to-Infer method is that the labeled data used for training can be generated in an arbitrarily large amount fast and at very little cost. As a result, the power of offline training is fully exploited to learn very complex classifiers for effective real-time topology identification. The proposed methods are evaluated in the IEEE 30, 118 and 300 bus systems. Excellent performance in identifying arbitrary power network topologies in real time is achieved even with relatively simple variational models and a reasonably small amount of data.

We introduce the concept of local bucket error for the mini-bucket heuristics and show how it can be used to improve the power of AND/OR search for combinatorial optimization tasks in graphical models (e.g. MAP/MPE or weighted CSPs). The local bucket error illuminates how the heuristic errors are distributed in the search space, guided by the mini-bucket heuristic. We present and analyze methods for compiling the local bucket-errors (exactly and approximately) and show that they can be used to yield an effective tool for balancing look-ahead overhead during search. This can be especially instrumental when memory is restricted, accommodating the generation of only weak compiled heuristics. We illustrate the impact of the proposed schemes in an extensive empirical evaluation for both finding exact solutions and anytime suboptimal solutions.

We present a novel notion of complexity that interpolates between and generalizes some classic existing complexity notions in learning theory: for estimators like empirical risk minimization (ERM) with arbitrary bounded losses, it is upper bounded in terms of data-independent Rademacher complexity; for generalized Bayesian estimators, it is upper bounded by the data-dependent information complexity (also known as stochastic or PAC-Bayesian, $\mathrm{KL}(\text{posterior} \operatorname{\|} \text{prior})$ complexity. For (penalized) ERM, the new complexity reduces to (generalized) normalized maximum likelihood (NML) complexity, i.e. a minimax log-loss individual-sequence regret. Our first main result bounds excess risk in terms of the new complexity. Our second main result links the new complexity via Rademacher complexity to $L_2(P)$ entropy, thereby generalizing earlier results of Opper, Haussler, Lugosi, and Cesa-Bianchi who did the log-loss case with $L_\infty$. Together, these results recover optimal bounds for VC- and large (polynomial entropy) classes, replacing localized Rademacher complexity by a simpler analysis which almost completely separates the two aspects that determine the achievable rates: 'easiness' (Bernstein) conditions and model complexity.

A popular approach to semi-supervised learning proceeds by endowing the input data with a graph structure in order to extract geometric information and incorporate it into a Bayesian framework. We introduce new theory that gives appropriate scalings of graph parameters that provably lead to a well-defined limiting posterior as the size of the unlabeled data set grows. Furthermore, we show that these consistency results have profound algorithmic implications. When consistency holds, carefully designed graph-based Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are proved to have a uniform spectral gap, independent of the number of unlabeled inputs. Several numerical experiments corroborate both the statistical consistency and the algorithmic scalability established by the theory.

Introducing inequality constraints in Gaussian process (GP) models can lead to more realistic uncertainties in learning a great variety of real-world problems. We consider the finite-dimensional Gaussian approach from Maatouk and Bay (2017) which can satisfy inequality conditions everywhere (either boundedness, monotonicity or convexity). Our contributions are threefold. First, we extend their approach in order to deal with general sets of linear inequalities. Second, we explore several Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to approximate the posterior distribution. Third, we investigate theoretical and numerical properties of the constrained likelihood for covariance parameter estimation. According to experiments on both artificial and real data, our full framework together with a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based sampler provides efficient results on both data fitting and uncertainty quantification.

This tutorial provides a gentle introduction to the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm for parameter inference in nonlinear state-space models together with a software implementation in the statistical programming language R. We employ a step-by-step approach to develop an implementation of the PMH algorithm (and the particle filter within) together with the reader. This final implementation is also available as the package pmhtutorial in the CRAN repository. Throughout the tutorial, we provide some intuition as to how the algorithm operates and discuss some solutions to problems that might occur in practice. To illustrate the use of PMH, we consider parameter inference in a linear Gaussian state-space model with synthetic data and a nonlinear stochastic volatility model with real-world data.

A research frontier has emerged in scientific computation, wherein numerical error is regarded as a source of epistemic uncertainty that can be modelled. This raises several statistical challenges, including the design of statistical methods that enable the coherent propagation of probabilities through a (possibly deterministic) computational work-flow. This paper examines the case for probabilistic numerical methods in routine statistical computation. Our focus is on numerical integration, where a probabilistic integrator is equipped with a full distribution over its output that reflects the presence of an unknown numerical error. Our main technical contribution is to establish, for the first time, rates of posterior contraction for these methods. These show that probabilistic integrators can in principle enjoy the "best of both worlds", leveraging the sampling efficiency of Monte Carlo methods whilst providing a principled route to assess the impact of numerical error on scientific conclusions. Several substantial applications are provided for illustration and critical evaluation, including examples from statistical modelling, computer graphics and a computer model for an oil reservoir.

This article proposes a Bayesian nonparametric method for forecasting, imputation, and clustering in sparsely observed, multivariate time series. The method is appropriate for jointly modeling hundreds of time series with widely varying, non-stationary dynamics. Given a collection of $N$ time series, the Bayesian model first partitions them into independent clusters using a Chinese restaurant process prior. Within a cluster, all time series are modeled jointly using a novel "temporally-coupled" extension of the Chinese restaurant process mixture. Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are used to obtain samples from the posterior distribution, which are then used to form predictive inferences. We apply the technique to challenging prediction and imputation tasks using seasonal flu data from the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention, demonstrating competitive imputation performance and improved forecasting accuracy as compared to several state-of-the art baselines. We also show that the model discovers interpretable clusters in datasets with hundreds of time series using macroeconomic data from the Gapminder Foundation.

Analyzing the underlying structure of multiple time-sequences provides insight into the understanding of social networks and human activities. In this work, we present the Bayesian nonparametric Poisson process allocation (BaNPPA), a generative model to automatically infer the number of latent functions in temporal data. We model the intensity of each sequence as an infinite mixture of latent functions, each of which is the square of a function drawn from a Gaussian process. A technical challenge for the inference of such mixture models is the identifiability issue between coefficients and the scale of latent functions. We propose to cope with the identifiability issue by regulating the volume of each latent function and derive a variational inference algorithm that can scale well to large-scale data sets. Our algorithm is computationally efficient and scalable to large-scale datasets. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed Bayesian nonparametric model through experiments on both synthetic and real-world data sets.