Lineage of malware has been studied using phylogenetic based methods. Multiple sequence alignment techniques in biology form the foundations of phylogenetic analysis. The analysis of malware trace data using sequence alignment techniques is a drastic simplification from reality. In this work, we describe a framework that incorporates uncertainty in discovering the relationship between malware traces. The framework leverages on probabilistic measures of similarity between stochastic models to compare two malware families. A proof-of-concept of our formalism is demonstrated with the construction of a network of malware relationships.

Low-rank tensor regression, a new model class that learns high-order correlation from data, has recently received considerable attention. At the same time, Gaussian processes (GP) are well-studied machine learning models for structure learning. In this paper, we demonstrate interesting connections between the two, especially for multi-way data analysis. We show that low-rank tensor regression is essentially learning a multi-linear kernel in Gaussian processes, and the low-rank assumption translates to the constrained Bayesian inference problem. We prove the oracle inequality and derive the average case learning curve for the equivalent GP model. Our finding implies that low-rank tensor regression, though empirically successful, is highly dependent on the eigenvalues of covariance functions as well as variable correlations.

Langevin diffusion is a commonly used tool for sampling from a given distribution. In this work, we establish that when the target density $p^*$ is such that $\log p^*$ is $L$ smooth and $m$ strongly convex, discrete Langevin diffusion produces a distribution $p$ with $KL(p||p^*)\leq \epsilon$ in $\tilde{O}(\frac{d}{\epsilon})$ steps, where $d$ is the dimension of the sample space. We also study the convergence rate when the strong-convexity assumption is absent. By considering the Langevin diffusion as a gradient flow in the space of probability distributions, we obtain an elegant analysis that applies to the stronger property of convergence in KL-divergence and gives a conceptually simpler proof of the best-known convergence results in weaker metrics.

Meta learning of optimal classifier error rates allows an experimenter to empirically estimate the intrinsic ability of any estimator to discriminate between two populations, circumventing the difficult problem of estimating the optimal Bayes classifier. To this end we propose a weighted nearest neighbor (WNN) graph estimator for a tight bound on the Bayes classification error; the Henze-Penrose (HP) divergence. Similar to recently proposed HP estimators [berisha2016], the proposed estimator is non-parametric and does not require density estimation. However, unlike previous approaches the proposed estimator is rate-optimal, i.e., its mean squared estimation error (MSEE) decays to zero at the fastest possible rate of $O(1/M+1/N)$ where $M,N$ are the sample sizes of the respective populations. We illustrate the proposed WNN meta estimator for several simulated and real data sets.

We propose a simple algorithm to train stochastic neural networks to draw samples from given target distributions for probabilistic inference. Our method is based on iteratively adjusting the neural network parameters so that the output changes along a Stein variational gradient direction (Liu & Wang, 2016) that maximally decreases the KL divergence with the target distribution. Our method works for any target distribution specified by their unnormalized density function, and can train any black-box architectures that are differentiable in terms of the parameters we want to adapt. We demonstrate our method with a number of applications, including variational autoencoder (VAE) with expressive encoders to model complex latent space structures, and hyper-parameter learning of MCMC samplers that allows Bayesian inference to adaptively improve itself when seeing more data.

We introduce a new formulation of the Hidden Parameter Markov Decision Process (HiP-MDP), a framework for modeling families of related tasks using low-dimensional latent embeddings. Our new framework correctly models the joint uncertainty in the latent parameters and the state space. We also replace the original Gaussian Process-based model with a Bayesian Neural Network, enabling more scalable inference. Thus, we expand the scope of the HiP-MDP to applications with higher dimensions and more complex dynamics.

Variational inference provides a powerful tool for approximate probabilistic inference on complex, structured models. Typical variational inference methods, however, require to use inference networks with computationally tractable probability density functions. This largely limits the design and implementation of variational inference methods. We consider wild variational inference methods that do not require tractable density functions on the inference networks, and hence can be applied in more challenging cases. As an example of application, we treat stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) as an inference network, and use our methods to automatically adjust the step sizes of SGLD, yielding significant improvement over the hand-designed step size schemes.

Progress in probabilistic generative models has accelerated, developing richer models with neural architectures, implicit densities, and with scalable algorithms for their Bayesian inference. However, there has been limited progress in models that capture causal relationships, for example, how individual genetic factors cause major human diseases. In this work, we focus on two challenges in particular: How do we build richer causal models, which can capture highly nonlinear relationships and interactions between multiple causes? How do we adjust for latent confounders, which are variables influencing both cause and effect and which prevent learning of causal relationships? To address these challenges, we synthesize ideas from causality and modern probabilistic modeling. For the first, we describe implicit causal models, a class of causal models that leverages neural architectures with an implicit density. For the second, we describe an implicit causal model that adjusts for confounders by sharing strength across examples. In experiments, we scale Bayesian inference on up to a billion genetic measurements. We achieve state of the art accuracy for identifying causal factors: we significantly outperform existing genetics methods by an absolute difference of 15-45.3%.

We propose a new localized inference algorithm for answering marginalization queries in large graphical models with the correlation decay property. Given a query variable and a large graphical model, we define a much smaller model in a local region around the query variable in the target model so that the marginal distribution of the query variable can be accurately approximated. We introduce two approximation error bounds based on the Dobrushin's comparison theorem and apply our bounds to derive a greedy expansion algorithm that efficiently guides the selection of neighbor nodes for localized inference. We verify our theoretical bounds on various datasets and demonstrate that our localized inference algorithm can provide fast and accurate approximation for large graphical models.

This work constructs a hypothesis test for detecting whether an data-generating function $h: R^p \rightarrow R$ belongs to a specific reproducing kernel Hilbert space $\mathcal{H}_0$ , where the structure of $\mathcal{H}_0$ is only partially known. Utilizing the theory of reproducing kernels, we reduce this hypothesis to a simple one-sided score test for a scalar parameter, develop a testing procedure that is robust against the mis-specification of kernel functions, and also propose an ensemble-based estimator for the null model to guarantee test performance in small samples. To demonstrate the utility of the proposed method, we apply our test to the problem of detecting nonlinear interaction between groups of continuous features. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of our test under different data-generating functions and estimation strategies for the null model. Our results reveal interesting connections between notions in machine learning (model underfit/overfit) and those in statistical inference (i.e. Type I error/power of hypothesis test), and also highlight unexpected consequences of common model estimating strategies (e.g. estimating kernel hyperparameters using maximum likelihood estimation) on model inference.