In this paper, we study the effects of different prior and likelihood choices for Bayesian matrix factorisation, focusing on small datasets. These choices can greatly influence the predictive performance of the methods. We identify four groups of approaches: Gaussian-likelihood with real-valued priors, nonnegative priors, semi-nonnegative models, and finally Poisson-likelihood approaches. For each group we review several models from the literature, considering sixteen in total, and discuss the relations between different priors and matrix norms. We extensively compare these methods on eight real-world datasets across three application areas, giving both inter- and intra-group comparisons. We measure convergence runtime speed, cross-validation performance, sparse and noisy prediction performance, and model selection robustness. We offer several insights into the trade-offs between prior and likelihood choices for Bayesian matrix factorisation on small datasets - such as that Poisson models give poor predictions, and that nonnegative models are more constrained than real-valued ones.

Estimating the joint probability mass function (PMF) of a set of random variables lies at the heart of statistical learning and signal processing. Without structural assumptions, such as modeling the variables as a Markov chain, tree, or other graphical model, joint PMF estimation is often considered mission impossible - the number of unknowns grows exponentially with the number of variables. But who gives us the structural model? Is there a generic, 'non-parametric' way to control joint PMF complexity without relying on a priori structural assumptions regarding the underlying probability model? Is it possible to discover the operational structure without biasing the analysis up front? What if we only observe random subsets of the variables, can we still reliably estimate the joint PMF of all? This paper shows, perhaps surprisingly, that if the joint PMF of any three variables can be estimated, then the joint PMF of all the variables can be provably recovered under relatively mild conditions. The result is reminiscent of Kolmogorov's extension theorem - consistent specification of lower-order distributions induces a unique probability measure for the entire process. The difference is that for processes of limited complexity (rank of the high-order PMF) it is possible to obtain complete characterization from only third-order distributions. In fact not all third order PMFs are needed; and under more stringent conditions even second-order will do. Exploiting multilinear (tensor) algebra, this paper proves that such higher-order PMF completion can be guaranteed - several pertinent identifiability results are derived. It also provides a practical and efficient algorithm to carry out the recovery task. Judiciously designed simulations and real-data experiments on movie recommendation and data classification are presented to showcase the effectiveness of the approach.

In this work, we address the problem of solving a series of underdetermined linear inverse problemblems subject to a sparsity constraint. We generalize the spike-and-slab prior distribution to encode a priori correlation of the support of the solution in both space and time by imposing a transformed Gaussian process on the spike-and-slab probabilities. An expectation propagation (EP) algorithm for posterior inference under the proposed model is derived. For large scale problems, the standard EP algorithm can be prohibitively slow. We therefore introduce three different approximation schemes to reduce the computational complexity. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed model using numerical experiments based on both synthetic and real data sets.

In statistical dialogue management, the dialogue manager learns a policy that maps a belief state to an action for the system to perform. Efficient exploration is key to successful policy optimisation. Current deep reinforcement learning methods are very promising but rely on epsilon-greedy exploration, thus subjecting the user to a random choice of action during learning. Alternative approaches such as Gaussian Process SARSA (GPSARSA) estimate uncertainties and are sample efficient, leading to better user experience, but on the expense of a greater computational complexity. This paper examines approaches to extract uncertainty estimates from deep Q-networks (DQN) in the context of dialogue management. We perform an extensive benchmark of deep Bayesian methods to extract uncertainty estimates, namely Bayes-By-Backprop, dropout, its concrete variation, bootstrapped ensemble and alpha-divergences, combining it with DQN algorithm.

Learning an optimal policy from a multi-modal reward function is a challenging problem in reinforcement learning (RL). Hierarchical RL (HRL) tackles this problem by learning a hierarchical policy, where multiple option policies are in charge of different strategies corresponding to modes of a reward function and a gating policy selects the best option for a given context. Although HRL has been demonstrated to be promising, current state-of-the-art methods cannot still perform well in complex real-world problems due to the difficulty of identifying modes of the reward function. In this paper, we propose a novel method called hierarchical policy search via return-weighted density estimation (HPSDE), which can efficiently identify the modes through density estimation with return-weighted importance sampling. Our proposed method finds option policies corresponding to the modes of the return function and automatically determines the number and the location of option policies, which significantly reduces the burden of hyper-parameters tuning. Through experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed HPSDE successfully learns option policies corresponding to modes of the return function and that it can be successfully applied to a challenging motion planning problem of a redundant robotic manipulator.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods such as Gibbs sampling are finding widespread use in applied statistics and machine learning. These often lead to difficult computational problems, which are increasingly being solved on parallel and distributed systems such as compute clusters. Recent work has proposed running iterative algorithms such as gradient descent and MCMC in parallel asynchronously for increased performance, with good empirical results in certain problems. Unfortunately, for MCMC this parallelization technique requires new convergence theory, as it has been explicitly demonstrated to lead to divergence on some examples. Recent theory on Asynchronous Gibbs sampling describes why these algorithms can fail, and provides a way to alter them to make them converge. In this article, we describe how to apply this theory in a generic setting, to understand the asynchronous behavior of any MCMC algorithm, including those implemented using parameter servers, and those not based on Gibbs sampling.

We develop Riemannian Stein Variational Gradient Descent (RSVGD), a Bayesian inference method that generalizes Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) to Riemann manifold. The benefits are two-folds: (i) for inference tasks in Euclidean spaces, RSVGD has the advantage over SVGD of utilizing information geometry, and (ii) for inference tasks on Riemann manifolds, RSVGD brings the unique advantages of SVGD to the Riemannian world. To appropriately transfer to Riemann manifolds, we conceive novel and non-trivial techniques for RSVGD, which are required by the intrinsically different characteristics of general Riemann manifolds from Euclidean spaces. We also discover Riemannian Stein's Identity and Riemannian Kernelized Stein Discrepancy. Experimental results show the advantages over SVGD of exploring distribution geometry and the advantages of particle-efficiency, iteration-effectiveness and approximation flexibility over other inference methods on Riemann manifolds.

We introduce a framework using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for likelihood--free inference (LFI) and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Our approach addresses both the key problems in likelihood--free inference, namely how to compare distributions and how to efficiently explore the parameter space. Our framework allows one to use the simulator model as a black box and leverage the power of deep networks to generate a rich set of features in a data driven fashion (as opposed to previous ad hoc approaches). Thereby it is a step towards a powerful alternative approach to LFI and ABC. On benchmark data sets, our approach improves on others with respect to scalability, ability to handle high dimensional data and complex probability distributions.

Variational inference is a general approach for approximating complex density functions, such as those arising in latent variable models, popular in machine learning. It has been applied to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator and to carry out Bayesian inference, however, quantification of uncertainty with variational inference remains challenging from both theoretical and practical perspectives. This paper is concerned with developing uncertainty measures for variational inference by using bootstrap procedures. We first develop two general bootstrap approaches for assessing the uncertainty of a variational estimate and the study the underlying bootstrap theory in both fixed- and increasing-dimension settings. We then use the bootstrap approach and our theoretical results in the context of mixed membership modeling with multivariate binary data on functional disability from the National Long Term Care Survey. We carry out a two-sample approach to test for changes in the repeated measures of functional disability for the subset of individuals present in 1984 and 1994 waves.

Applying machine learning in the health care domain has shown promising results in recent years. Interpretable outputs from learning algorithms are desirable for decision making by health care personnel. In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing causal relationships to refine diagnostic prediction. We focus on the task of diagnostic prediction using discomfort drawings, and explore two ways to employ causal identification to improve the diagnostic results. Firstly, we use causal identification to infer the causal relationships among diagnostic labels which, by itself, provides interpretable results to aid the decision making and training of health care personnel. Secondly, we suggest a post-processing approach where the inferred causal relationships are used to refine the prediction accuracy of a multi-view probabilistic model. Experimental results show firstly that causal identification is capable of detecting the causal relationships among diagnostic labels correctly, and secondly that there is potential for improving pain diagnostics prediction accuracy using the causal relationships.