Inference in the presence of outliers is an important field of research as outliers are ubiquitous and may arise across a variety of problems and domains. Bayesian optimization is method that heavily relies on probabilistic inference. This allows outstanding sample efficiency because the probabilistic machinery provides a memory of the whole optimization process. However, that virtue becomes a disadvantage when the memory is populated with outliers, inducing bias in the estimation. In this paper, we present an empirical evaluation of Bayesian optimization methods in the presence of outliers. The empirical evidence shows that Bayesian optimization with robust regression often produces suboptimal results. We then propose a new algorithm which combines robust regression (a Gaussian process with Student-t likelihood) with outlier diagnostics to classify data points as outliers or inliers. By using an scheduler for the classification of outliers, our method is more efficient and has better convergence over the standard robust regression. Furthermore, we show that even in controlled situations with no expected outliers, our method is able to produce better results.

We compare and contrast the statistical physics and quantum physics inspired approaches for unsupervised generative modeling of classical data. The two approaches represent probabilities of observed data using energy-based models and quantum states respectively.Classical and quantum information patterns of the target datasets therefore provide principled guidelines for structural design and learning in these two approaches. Taking the restricted Boltzmann machines (RBM) as an example, we analyze the information theoretical bounds of the two approaches. We verify our reasonings by comparing the performance of RBMs of various architectures on the standard MNIST datasets.

We present a computable algorithm that assigns probabilities to every logical statement in a given formal language, and refines those probabilities over time. For instance, if the language is Peano arithmetic, it assigns probabilities to all arithmetical statements, including claims about the twin prime conjecture, the outputs of long-running computations, and its own probabilities. We show that our algorithm, an instance of what we call a logical inductor, satisfies a number of intuitive desiderata, including: (1) it learns to predict patterns of truth and falsehood in logical statements, often long before having the resources to evaluate the statements, so long as the patterns can be written down in polynomial time; (2) it learns to use appropriate statistical summaries to predict sequences of statements whose truth values appear pseudorandom; and (3) it learns to have accurate beliefs about its own current beliefs, in a manner that avoids the standard paradoxes of self-reference. For example, if a given computer program only ever produces outputs in a certain range, a logical inductor learns this fact in a timely manner; and if late digits in the decimal expansion of $\pi$ are difficult to predict, then a logical inductor learns to assign $\approx 10\%$ probability to "the $n$th digit of $\pi$ is a 7" for large $n$. Logical inductors also learn to trust their future beliefs more than their current beliefs, and their beliefs are coherent in the limit (whenever $\phi \implies \psi$, $\mathbb{P}_\infty(\phi) \le \mathbb{P}_\infty(\psi)$, and so on); and logical inductors strictly dominate the universal semimeasure in the limit. These properties and many others all follow from a single logical induction criterion, which is motivated by a series of stock trading analogies. Roughly speaking, each logical sentence $\phi$ is associated with a stock that is worth \$1 per share if [...]

The mean field variational Bayes method is becoming increasingly popular in statistics and machine learning. Its iterative Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference algorithm has been widely applied to large scale Bayesian inference. See Blei et al. (2017) for a recent comprehensive review. Despite the popularity of the mean field method there exist remarkably little fundamental theoretical justifications. To the best of our knowledge, the iterative algorithm has never been investigated for any high dimensional and complex model. In this paper, we study the mean field method for community detection under the Stochastic Block Model. For an iterative Batch Coordinate Ascent Variational Inference algorithm, we show that it has a linear convergence rate and converges to the minimax rate within $\log n$ iterations. This complements the results of Bickel et al. (2013) which studied the global minimum of the mean field variational Bayes and obtained asymptotic normal estimation of global model parameters. In addition, we obtain similar optimality results for Gibbs sampling and an iterative procedure to calculate maximum likelihood estimation, which can be of independent interest.

TD(0) is one of the most commonly used algorithms in reinforcement learning. Despite this, there is no existing finite sample analysis for TD(0) with function approximation, even for the linear case. Our work is the first to provide such results. Existing convergence rates for Temporal Difference (TD) methods apply only to somewhat modified versions, e.g., projected variants or ones where stepsizes depend on unknown problem parameters. Our analyses obviate these artificial alterations by exploiting strong properties of TD(0). We provide convergence rates both in expectation and with high-probability. The two are obtained via different approaches that use relatively unknown, recently developed stochastic approximation techniques.

A Bayesian neural network (BNN) refers to extending standard networks with posterior inference. Standard NN training via optimization is (from a probabilistic perspective) equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for the weights. For many reasons this is unsatisfactory. One reason is that it lacks proper theoretical justification from a probabilistic perspective: why maximum likelihood? Using MLE ignores any uncertainty that we may have in the proper weight values.

Matrix decomposition is a popular and fundamental approach in machine learning and data mining. It has been successfully applied into various fields. Most matrix decomposition methods focus on decomposing a data matrix from one single source. However, it is common that data are from different sources with heterogeneous noise. A few of matrix decomposition methods have been extended for such multi-view data integration and pattern discovery. While only few methods were designed to consider the heterogeneity of noise in such multi-view data for data integration explicitly. To this end, we propose a joint matrix decomposition framework (BJMD), which models the heterogeneity of noise by Gaussian distribution in a Bayesian framework. We develop two algorithms to solve this model: one is a variational Bayesian inference algorithm, which makes full use of the posterior distribution; and another is a maximum a posterior algorithm, which is more scalable and can be easily paralleled. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that BJMD considering the heterogeneity of noise is superior or competitive to the state-of-the-art methods.

This paper introduces a probabilistic framework for k-shot image classification. The goal is to generalise from an initial large-scale classification task to a separate task comprising new classes and small numbers of examples. The new approach not only leverages the feature-based representation learned by a neural network from the initial task (representational transfer), but also information about the classes (concept transfer). The concept information is encapsulated in a probabilistic model for the final layer weights of the neural network which acts as a prior for probabilistic k-shot learning. We show that even a simple probabilistic model achieves state-of-the-art on a standard k-shot learning dataset by a large margin. Moreover, it is able to accurately model uncertainty, leading to well calibrated classifiers, and is easily extensible and flexible, unlike many recent approaches to k-shot learning.

You'll start with an introduction to Spark and its ecosystem, and then dive into patterns that apply common techniques--including classification, clustering, collaborative filtering, and anomaly detection--to fields such as genomics, security, and finance. If you have an entry-level understanding of machine learning and statistics, and you program in Java, Python, or Scala, you'll find the book's patterns useful for working on your own data applications."

The rising interest in pattern recognition and data analytics has spurred the development of innovative machine learning algorithms and tools. However, as each algorithm has its strengths and limitations, one is motivated to judiciously fuse multiple algorithms in order to find the "best" performing one, for a given dataset. Ensemble learning aims at such high-performance meta-algorithm, by combining the outputs from multiple algorithms. The present work introduces a blind scheme for learning from ensembles of classifiers, using a moment matching method that leverages joint tensor and matrix factorization. Blind refers to the combiner who has no knowledge of the ground-truth labels that each classifier has been trained on. A rigorous performance analysis is derived and the proposed scheme is evaluated on synthetic and real datasets.