Linear models have shown great effectiveness and flexibility in many fields such as machine learning, signal processing and statistics. They can represent rich spaces of functions while preserving the convexity of the optimization problems where they are used, and are simple to evaluate, differentiate and integrate. However, for modeling non-negative functions, which are crucial for unsupervised learning, density estimation, or non-parametric Bayesian methods, linear models are not applicable directly. Moreover, current state-of-the-art models like generalized linear models either lead to non-convex optimization problems, or cannot be easily integrated. In this paper we provide the first model for non-negative functions which benefits from the same good properties of linear models. In particular, we prove that it admits a representer theorem and provide an efficient dual formulation for convex problems. We study its representation power, showing that the resulting space of functions is strictly richer than that of generalized linear models. Finally we extend the model and the theoretical results to functions with outputs in convex cones. The paper is complemented by an experimental evaluation of the model showing its effectiveness in terms of formulation, algorithmic derivation and practical results on the problems of density estimation, regression with heteroscedastic errors, and multiple quantile regression.

Many features of human and animal behavior can be understood in the framework of Bayesian inference and optimal decision making, but the biological substrate of such processes is not fully understood. Neural sampling provides a flexible code for probabilistic inference in high dimensions and explains key features of sensory responses under experimental manipulations of uncertainty. However, since it encodes uncertainty implicitly, across time and neurons, it remains unclear how such representations can be used for decision making. Here we propose a spiking network model that maps neural samples of a task-specific marginal distribution into an instantaneous representation of uncertainty via a procedure inspired by online kernel density estimation, so that its output can be readily used for decision making. Our model is consistent with experimental results at the level of single neurons and populations, and makes predictions for how neural responses and decisions could be modulated by uncertainty and prior biases. More generally, our work brings together conflicting perspectives on probabilistic brain computation.

In principle, Bayesian learning directly applies to this setting, since recursive and one-off Bayesian updates yield the same result. In practice, however, recursive updating often leads to poor trade-off solutions across tasks because approximate inference is necessary for most models of interest. Here, we describe an alternative Bayesian approach where task-conditioned parameter distributions are continually inferred from data. We offer a practical deep learning implementation of our framework based on probabilistic task-conditioned hypernetworks, an approach we term posterior meta-replay. Experiments on standard benchmarks show that our probabilistic hypernetworks compress sequences of posterior parameter distributions with virtually no forgetting. We obtain considerable performance gains compared to existing Bayesian CL methods, and identify task inference as our major limiting factor. This limitation has several causes that are independent of the considered sequential setting, opening up new avenues for progress in CL.

Undirected graphical models are compact representations of joint probability distributions over random variables. To solve inference tasks of interest, graphical models of arbitrary topology can be trained using empirical risk minimization. However, to solve inference tasks that were not seen during training, these models (EGMs) often need to be re-trained. Instead, we propose an inference-agnostic adversarial training framework which produces an infinitely-large ensemble of graphical models (AGMs). The ensemble is optimized to generate data within the GAN framework, and inference is performed using a finite subset of these models. AGMs perform comparably with EGMs on inference tasks that the latter were specifically optimized for. Most importantly, AGMs show significantly better generalization to unseen inference tasks compared to EGMs, as well as deep neural architectures like GibbsNet and VAEAC which allow arbitrary conditioning. Finally, AGMs allow fast data sampling, competitive with Gibbs sampling from EGMs.

Effectively modeling phenomena present in highly nonlinear dynamical systems whilst also accurately quantifying uncertainty is a challenging task, which often requires problem-specific techniques. We present a novel, domain-agnostic approach to tackling this problem, using compositions of physics-informed random features, derived from ordinary differential equations. The architecture of our model leverages recent advances in approximate inference for deep Gaussian processes, such as layer-wise weight-space approximations which allow us to incorporate random Fourier features, and stochastic variational inference for approximate Bayesian inference. We provide evidence that our model is capable of capturing highly nonlinear behaviour in real-world multivariate time series data. In addition, we find that our approach achieves comparable performance to a number of other probabilistic models on benchmark regression tasks.

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) are a popular framework for modeling complex data distributions; they can be efficiently trained via variational inference by maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO), at the expense of a gap to the exact (log-)marginal likelihood. While VAEs are commonly used for representation learning, it is unclear why ELBO maximization would yield useful representations, since unregularized maximum likelihood estimation cannot invert the data-generating process. Yet, VAEs often succeed at this task. We seek to elucidate this apparent paradox by studying nonlinear VAEs in the limit of near-deterministic decoders. We first prove that, in this regime, the optimal encoder approximately inverts the decoder---a commonly used but unproven conjecture---which we refer to as self-consistency. Leveraging self-consistency, we show that the ELBO converges to a regularized log-likelihood. This allows VAEs to perform what has recently been termed independent mechanism analysis (IMA): it adds an inductive bias towards decoders with column-orthogonal Jacobians, which helps recovering the true latent factors. The gap between ELBO and log-likelihood is therefore welcome, since it bears unanticipated benefits for nonlinear representation learning. In experiments on synthetic and image data, we show that VAEs uncover the true latent factors when the data generating process satisfies the IMA assumption.

Over-parameterized models, such as DeepNets and ConvNets, form a class of models that are routinely adopted in a wide variety of applications, and for which Bayesian inference is desirable but extremely challenging. Variational inference offers the tools to tackle this challenge in a scalable way and with some degree of flexibility on the approximation, but for overparameterized models this is challenging due to the over-regularization property of the variational objective. Inspired by the literature on kernel methods, and in particular on structured approximations of distributions of random matrices, this paper proposes Walsh-Hadamard Variational Inference (WHVI), which uses Walsh-Hadamardbased factorization strategies to reduce the parameterization and accelerate computations, thus avoiding over-regularization issues with the variational objective. Extensive theoretical and empirical analyses demonstrate that WHVI yields considerable speedups and model reductions compared to other techniques to carry out approximate inference for over-parameterized models, and ultimately show how advances in kernel methods can be translated into advances in approximate Bayesian inference for Deep Learning.

Recent years have witnessed an upsurge of interest in employing flexible machine learning models for instrumental variable (IV) regression, but the development of uncertainty quantification methodology is still lacking. In this work we present a scalable quasi-Bayesian procedure for IV regression, building upon the recently developed kernelized IV models. Contrary to Bayesian modeling for IV, our approach does not require additional assumptions on the data generating process, and leads to a scalable approximate inference algorithm with time cost comparable to the corresponding point estimation methods. Our algorithm can be further extended to work with neural network models. We analyze the theoretical properties of the proposed quasi-posterior, and demonstrate through empirical evaluation the competitive performance of our method.

Although the foundations of ranking are well established, the ranking literature has primarily been focused on simple, unimodal models, e.g. the Mallows and Plackett-Luce models, that define distributions centered around a single total ordering. Explicit mixture models have provided some tools for modelling multimodal ranking data, though learning such models from data is often difficult. In this work, we contribute a contextual repeated selection (CRS) model that leverages recent advances in choice modeling to bring a natural multimodality and richness to the rankings space. We provide rigorous theoretical guarantees for maximum likelihood estimation under the model through structure-dependent tail risk and expected risk bounds. As a by-product, we also furnish the first tight bounds on the expected risk of maximum likelihood estimators for the multinomial logit (MNL) choice model and the Plackett-Luce (PL) ranking model, as well as the first tail risk bound on the PL ranking model. The CRS model significantly outperforms existing methods for modeling real world ranking data in a variety of settings, from racing to rank choice voting.

In this paper, we introduce variational semantic memory into meta-learning to acquire long-term knowledge for few-shot learning. The variational semantic memory accrues and stores semantic information for the probabilistic inference of class prototypes in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. The semantic memory is grown from scratch and gradually consolidated by absorbing information from tasks it experiences. By doing so, it is able to accumulate long-term, general knowledge that enables it to learn new concepts of objects. We formulate memory recall as the variational inference of a latent memory variable from addressed contents, which offers a principled way to adapt the knowledge to individual tasks. Our variational semantic memory, as a new long-term memory module, confers principled recall and update mechanisms that enable semantic information to be efficiently accrued and adapted for few-shot learning. Experiments demonstrate that the probabilistic modelling of prototypes achieves a more informative representation of object classes compared to deterministic vectors. The consistent new state-of-the-art performance on four benchmarks shows the benefit of variational semantic memory in boosting few-shot recognition.