Point processes are powerful tools to model user activities and have a plethora of applications in social sciences. Predicting user activities based on point processes is a central problem. However, existing works are mostly problem specific, use heuristics, or simplify the stochastic nature of point processes. In this paper, we propose a framework that provides an efficient estimator of the probability mass function of point processes. In particular, we design a key reformulation of the prediction problem, and further derive a differential-difference equation to compute a conditional probability mass function. Our framework is applicable to general point processes and prediction tasks, and achieves superb predictive and efficiency performance in diverse real-world applications compared to the state of the art.

Mechanistic models of single-neuron dynamics have been extensively studied in computational neuroscience. However, identifying which models can quantitatively reproduce empirically measured data has been challenging. We propose to overcome this limitation by using likelihood-free inference approaches (also known as Approximate Bayesian Computation, ABC) to perform full Bayesian inference on single-neuron models. Our approach builds on recent advances in ABC by learning a neural network which maps features of the observed data to the posterior distribution over parameters. We learn a Bayesian mixture-density network approximating the posterior over multiple rounds of adaptively chosen simulations. Furthermore, we propose an efficient approach for handling missing features and parameter settings for which the simulator fails, as well as a strategy for automatically learning relevant features using recurrent neural networks. On synthetic data, our approach efficiently estimates posterior distributions and recovers ground-truth parameters. On in-vitro recordings of membrane voltages, we recover multivariate posteriors over biophysical parameters, which yield model-predicted voltage traces that accurately match empirical data. Our approach will enable neuroscientists to perform Bayesian inference on complex neuron models without having to design model-specific algorithms, closing the gap between mechanistic and statistical approaches to single-neuron modelling.

We present a novel technique for learning the mass matrices in samplers obtained from discretized dynamics that preserve some energy function. Existing adaptive samplers use Riemannian preconditioning techniques, where the mass matrices are functions of the parameters being sampled. This leads to significant complexities in the energy reformulations and resultant dynamics, often leading to implicit systems of equations and requiring inversion of high-dimensional matrices in the leapfrog steps. Our approach provides a simpler alternative, by using existing dynamics in the sampling step of a Monte Carlo EM framework, and learning the mass matrices in the M step with a novel online technique. We also propose a way to adaptively set the number of samples gathered in the E step, using sampling error estimates from the leapfrog dynamics. Along with a novel stochastic sampler based on Nos\'{e}-Poincar\'{e} dynamics, we use this framework with standard Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) as well as newer stochastic algorithms such as SGHMC and SGNHT, and show strong performance on synthetic and real high-dimensional sampling scenarios; we achieve sampling accuracies comparable to Riemannian samplers while being significantly faster.

A hallmark of human intelligence is the ability to ask rich, creative, and revealing questions. Here we introduce a cognitive model capable of constructing human-like questions. Our approach treats questions as formal programs that, when executed on the state of the world, output an answer. The model specifies a probability distribution over a complex, compositional space of programs, favoring concise programs that help the agent learn in the current context. We evaluate our approach by modeling the types of open-ended questions generated by humans who were attempting to learn about an ambiguous situation in a game. We find that our model predicts what questions people will ask, and can creatively produce novel questions that were not present in the training set. In addition, we compare a number of model variants, finding that both question informativeness and complexity are important for producing human-like questions.

A fundamental goal in network neuroscience is to understand how activity in one brain region drives activity elsewhere, a process referred to as effective connectivity. Here we propose to model this causal interaction using integro-differential equations and causal kernels that allow for a rich analysis of effective connectivity. The approach combines the tractability and flexibility of autoregressive modeling with the biophysical interpretability of dynamic causal modeling. The causal kernels are learned nonparametrically using Gaussian process regression, yielding an efficient framework for causal inference. We construct a novel class of causal covariance functions that enforce the desired properties of the causal kernels, an approach which we call GP CaKe. By construction, the model and its hyperparameters have biophysical meaning and are therefore easily interpretable. We demonstrate the efficacy of GP CaKe on a number of simulations and give an example of a realistic application on magnetoencephalography (MEG) data.

This work constructs a hypothesis test for detecting whether an data-generating function $h: \real^p \rightarrow \real$ belongs to a specific reproducing kernel Hilbert space $\mathcal{H}_0$, where the structure of $\mathcal{H}_0$ is only partially known. Utilizing the theory of reproducing kernels, we reduce this hypothesis to a simple one-sided score test for a scalar parameter, develop a testing procedure that is robust against the mis-specification of kernel functions, and also propose an ensemble-based estimator for the null model to guarantee test performance in small samples. To demonstrate the utility of the proposed method, we apply our test to the problem of detecting nonlinear interaction between groups of continuous features. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of our test under different data-generating functions and estimation strategies for the null model. Our results revealed interesting connection between notions in machine learning (model underfit/overfit) and those in statistical inference (i.e. Type I error/power of hypothesis test), and also highlighted unexpected consequences of common model estimating strategies (e.g. estimating kernel hyperparameters using maximum likelihood estimation) on model inference.

Neural Machine Translation (NMT) has become a popular technology in recent years, and beam search is its de facto decoding method due to the shrunk search space and reduced computational complexity. However, since it only searches for local optima at each time step through one-step forward looking, it usually cannot output the best target sentence. Inspired by the success and methodology of AlphaGo, in this paper we propose using a prediction network to improve beam search, which takes the source sentence $x$, the currently available decoding output $y_1,\cdots, y_{t-1}$ and a candidate word $w$ at step $t$ as inputs and predicts the long-term value (e.g., BLEU score) of the partial target sentence if it is completed by the NMT model. Following the practice in reinforcement learning, we call this prediction network \emph{value network}. Specifically, we propose a recurrent structure for the value network, and train its parameters from bilingual data. During the test time, when choosing a word $w$ for decoding, we consider both its conditional probability given by the NMT model and its long-term value predicted by the value network. Experiments show that such an approach can significantly improve the translation accuracy on several translation tasks.

We discover a screening rule for l1-regularized Ising model estimation. The simple closed-form screening rule is a necessary and sufficient condition for exactly recovering the blockwise structure of a solution under any given regularization parameters. With enough sparsity, the screening rule can be combined with various optimization procedures to deliver solutions efficiently in practice. The screening rule is especially suitable for large-scale exploratory data analysis, where the number of variables in the dataset can be thousands while we are only interested in the relationship among a handful of variables within moderate-size clusters for interpretability. Experimental results on various datasets demonstrate the efficiency and insights gained from the introduction of the screening rule.

Ordinal regression seeks class label predictions when the penalty incurred for mistakes increases according to an ordering over the labels. The absolute error is a canonical example. Many existing methods for this task reduce to binary classification problems and employ surrogate losses, such as the hinge loss. We instead derive uniquely defined surrogate ordinal regression loss functions by seeking the predictor that is robust to the worst-case approximations of training data labels, subject to matching certain provided training data statistics. We demonstrate the advantages of our approach over other surrogate losses based on hinge loss approximations using UCI ordinal prediction tasks.

The edge partition model (EPM) is a fundamental Bayesian nonparametric model for extracting an overlapping structure from binary matrix. The EPM adopts a gamma process ($\Gamma$P) prior to automatically shrink the number of active atoms. However, we empirically found that the model shrinkage of the EPM does not typically work appropriately and leads to an overfitted solution. An analysis of the expectation of the EPM's intensity function suggested that the gamma priors for the EPM hyperparameters disturb the model shrinkage effect of the internal $\Gamma$P. In order to ensure that the model shrinkage effect of the EPM works in an appropriate manner, we proposed two novel generative constructions of the EPM: CEPM incorporating constrained gamma priors, and DEPM incorporating Dirichlet priors instead of the gamma priors. Furthermore, all DEPM's model parameters including the infinite atoms of the $\Gamma$P prior could be marginalized out, and thus it was possible to derive a truly infinite DEPM (IDEPM) that can be efficiently inferred using a collapsed Gibbs sampler. We experimentally confirmed that the model shrinkage of the proposed models works well and that the IDEPM indicated state-of-the-art performance in generalization ability, link prediction accuracy, mixing efficiency, and convergence speed.