We study a class of non-parametric density estimators under Bayesian settings. The estimators are obtained by adaptively partitioning the sample space. Under a suitable prior, we analyze the concentration rate of the posterior distribution, and demonstrate that the rate does not directly depend on the dimension of the problem in several special cases. Another advantage of this class of Bayesian density estimators is that it can adapt to the unknown smoothness of the true density function, thus achieving the optimal convergence rate without artificial conditions on the density. We also validate the theoretical results on a variety of simulated data sets.

Catastrophic forgetting is a problem of neural networks that loses the information of the first task after training the second task. Here, we propose a method, i.e. incremental moment matching (IMM), to resolve this problem. IMM incrementally matches the moment of the posterior distribution of the neural network which is trained on the first and the second task, respectively. To make the search space of posterior parameter smooth, the IMM procedure is complemented by various transfer learning techniques including weight transfer, L2-norm of the old and the new parameter, and a variant of dropout with the old parameter. We analyze our approach on a variety of datasets including the MNIST, CIFAR-10, Caltech-UCSD-Birds, and Lifelog datasets. The experimental results show that IMM achieves state-of-the-art performance by balancing the information between an old and a new network.

We propose an efficient method to estimate the accuracy of classifiers using only unlabeled data. We consider a setting with multiple classification problems where the target classes may be tied together through logical constraints. For example, a set of classes may be mutually exclusive, meaning that a data instance can belong to at most one of them. The proposed method is based on the intuition that: (i) when classifiers agree, they are more likely to be correct, and (ii) when the classifiers make a prediction that violates the constraints, at least one classifier must be making an error. Experiments on four real-world data sets produce accuracy estimates within a few percent of the true accuracy, using solely unlabeled data. Our models also outperform existing state-of-the-art solutions in both estimating accuracies, and combining multiple classifier outputs. The results emphasize the utility of logical constraints in estimating accuracy, thus validating our intuition.

We consider the problem of accurately estimating the reliability of workers based on noisy labels they provide, which is a fundamental question in crowdsourcing. We propose a novel lower bound on the minimax estimation error which applies to any estimation procedure. We further propose Triangular Estimation (TE), an algorithm for estimating the reliability of workers. TE has low complexity, may be implemented in a streaming setting when labels are provided by workers in real time, and does not rely on an iterative procedure. We prove that TE is minimax optimal and matches our lower bound. We conclude by assessing the performance of TE and other state-of-the-art algorithms on both synthetic and real-world data.

Gaussian processes are rich distributions over functions, with generalization properties determined by a kernel function. When used for long-range extrapolation, predictions are particularly sensitive to the choice of kernel parameters. It is therefore critical to account for kernel uncertainty in our predictive distributions. We propose a distribution over kernels formed by modelling a spectral mixture density with a Levy process. The resulting distribution has support for all stationary covariances---including the popular RBF, periodic, and Matern kernels---combined with inductive biases which enable automatic and data efficient learning, long-range extrapolation, and state of the art predictive performance. The proposed model also presents an approach to spectral regularization, as the Levy process introduces a sparsity-inducing prior over mixture components, allowing automatic selection over model order and pruning of extraneous components. We exploit the algebraic structure of the proposed process for O(n) training and O(1) predictions. We perform extrapolations having reasonable uncertainty estimates on several benchmarks, show that the proposed model can recover flexible ground truth covariances and that it is robust to errors in initialization.

We establish the consistency of an algorithm of Mondrian Forests~\cite{lakshminarayanan2014mondrianforests,lakshminarayanan2016mondrianuncertainty}, a randomized classification algorithm that can be implemented online. First, we amend the original Mondrian Forest algorithm proposed in~\cite{lakshminarayanan2014mondrianforests}, that considers a \emph{fixed} lifetime parameter. Indeed, the fact that this parameter is fixed actually hinders statistical consistency of the original procedure. Our modified Mondrian Forest algorithm grows trees with increasing lifetime parameters $\lambda_n$, and uses an alternative updating rule, allowing to work also in an online fashion. Second, we provide a theoretical analysis establishing simple conditions for consistency. Our theoretical analysis also exhibits a surprising fact: our algorithm achieves the minimax rate (optimal rate) for the estimation of a Lipschitz regression function, which is a strong extension of previous results~\cite{arlot2014purf_bias} to an \emph{arbitrary dimension}.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in statistical applications in the natural sciences, and more recently in machine learning. Inference for these models typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo, and can suffer from various computational challenges. In this work, we propose a novel collapsed variational inference algorithm to address this issue. Our work leverages ideas from discrete-time Markov chains, and exploits a connection between these two through an idea called uniformization. Our algorithm proceeds by marginalizing out the parameters of the Markov jump process, and then approximating the distribution over the trajectory with a factored distribution over segments of a piecewise-constant function. Unlike MCMC schemes that marginalize out transition times of a piecewise-constant process, our scheme optimizes the discretization of time, resulting in significant computational savings. We apply our ideas to synthetic data as well as a dataset of check-in recordings, where we demonstrate superior performance over state-of-the-art MCMC methods.

Generalized linear models (GLMs)---such as logistic regression, Poisson regression, and robust regression---provide interpretable models for diverse data types. Probabilistic approaches, particularly Bayesian ones, allow coherent estimates of uncertainty, incorporation of prior information, and sharing of power across experiments via hierarchical models. In practice, however, the approximate Bayesian methods necessary for inference have either failed to scale to large data sets or failed to provide theoretical guarantees on the quality of inference. We propose a new approach based on constructing polynomial approximate sufficient statistics for GLMs (PASS-GLM). We demonstrate that our method admits a simple algorithm as well as trivial streaming and distributed extensions that do not compound error across computations. We provide theoretical guarantees on the quality of point (MAP) estimates, the approximate posterior, and posterior mean and uncertainty estimates. We validate our approach empirically in the case of logistic regression using a quadratic approximation and show competitive performance with stochastic gradient descent, MCMC, and the Laplace approximation in terms of speed and multiple measures of accuracy---including on an advertising data set with 40 million data points and 20,000 covariates.

Population activity measurement by calcium imaging can be combined with cellular resolution optogenetic activity perturbations to enable the mapping of neural connectivity in vivo. This requires accurate inference of perturbed and unperturbed neural activity from calcium imaging measurements, which are noisy and indirect, and can also be contaminated by photostimulation artifacts. We have developed a new fully Bayesian approach to jointly inferring spiking activity and neural connectivity from in vivo all-optical perturbation experiments. In contrast to standard approaches that perform spike inference and analysis in two separate maximum-likelihood phases, our joint model is able to propagate uncertainty in spike inference to the inference of connectivity and vice versa. We use the framework of variational autoencoders to model spiking activity using discrete latent variables, low-dimensional latent common input, and sparse spike-and-slab generalized linear coupling between neurons. Additionally, we model two properties of the optogenetic perturbation: off-target photostimulation and photostimulation transients. Using this model, we were able to fit models on 30 minutes of data in just 10 minutes. We performed an all-optical circuit mapping experiment in primary visual cortex of the awake mouse, and use our approach to predict neural connectivity between excitatory neurons in layer 2/3. Predicted connectivity is sparse and consistent with known correlations with stimulus tuning, spontaneous correlation and distance.

Sparse pseudo-point approximations for Gaussian process (GP) models provide a suite of methods that support deployment of GPs in the large data regime and enable analytic intractabilities to be sidestepped. However, the field lacks a principled method to handle streaming data in which both the posterior distribution over function values and the hyperparameter estimates are updated in an online fashion. The small number of existing approaches either use suboptimal hand-crafted heuristics for hyperparameter learning, or suffer from catastrophic forgetting or slow updating when new data arrive. This paper develops a new principled framework for deploying Gaussian process probabilistic models in the streaming setting, providing methods for learning hyperparameters and optimising pseudo-input locations. The proposed framework is assessed using synthetic and real-world datasets.