Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are the most commonly used graphical model to represent causal relationships among a set of variables. In a DAG representation, a directed edge indicates a direct causal relationship between the corresponding variables. Under Markov property and faithfulness assumptions, conditional d-separation of variables in a DAG is in bijective correspondence with conditional independencies of the variables in the underlying joint probability distribution (Spirtes et al., 2000), and hence, a DAG representation demonstrates conditional independencies among its variables. The general approach for learning a causal structure is to use statistical data from the variables to find a DAG which is the most consistent with the conditional independencies in the given data. However, a DAG representation of a set of conditional independencies is not always unique. 1 This restricts the learning of the causal structure to Markov equivalence classes (MECs), where elements of each class represent the same set of conditional independencies.

Community detection in hypergraphs is explored. Under a generative hypergraph model called "d-wise hypergraph stochastic block model" (d-hSBM) which naturally extends the Stochastic Block Model from graphs to d-uniform hypergraphs, the asymptotic minimax mismatch ratio is characterized. For proving the achievability, we propose a two-step polynomial time algorithm that achieves the fundamental limit. The first step of the algorithm is a hypergraph spectral clustering method which achieves partial recovery to a certain precision level. The second step is a local refinement method which leverages the underlying probabilistic model along with parameter estimation from the outcome of the first step. To characterize the asymptotic performance of the proposed algorithm, we first derive a sufficient condition for attaining weak consistency in the hypergraph spectral clustering step. Then, under the guarantee of weak consistency in the first step, we upper bound the worst-case risk attained in the local refinement step by an exponentially decaying function of the size of the hypergraph and characterize the decaying rate. For proving the converse, the lower bound of the minimax mismatch ratio is set by finding a smaller parameter space which contains the most dominant error events, inspired by the analysis in the achievability part. It turns out that the minimax mismatch ratio decays exponentially fast to zero as the number of nodes tends to infinity, and the rate function is a weighted combination of several divergence terms, each of which is the Renyi divergence of order 1/2 between two Bernoulli's. The Bernoulli's involved in the characterization of the rate function are those governing the random instantiation of hyperedges in d-hSBM. Experimental results on synthetic data validate our theoretical finding that the refinement step is critical in achieving the optimal statistical limit.

The main inspiration for this blog post is based on the work I did on Bayesian Neural Networks with my friend Brian Trippe at the Computational and Biological Learning Lab in Cambridge University. I highly recommend anyone to read Brian's thesis on variational inference in neural networks. Disclaimer: At the Computational and Biological Learning Lab Bayesian machine learning techniques are unapologetically taught as the way forward. As such, be aware of potential bias in this blog post. For example in image classification, x represents an image and y the corresponding image label.

We present a method to generate renewable scenarios using Bayesian probabilities by implementing the Bayesian generative adversarial network~(Bayesian GAN), which is a variant of generative adversarial networks based on two interconnected deep neural networks. By using a Bayesian formulation, generators can be constructed and trained to produce scenarios that capture different salient modes in the data, allowing for better diversity and more accurate representation of the underlying physical process. Compared to conventional statistical models that are often hard to scale or sample from, this method is model-free and can generate samples extremely efficiently. For validation, we use wind and solar times-series data from NREL integration data sets to train the Bayesian GAN. We demonstrate that proposed method is able to generate clusters of wind scenarios with different variance and mean value, and is able to distinguish and generate wind and solar scenarios simultaneously even if the historical data are intentionally mixed.

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proposed to address the problem of model uncertainty in training and inference. By introducing weights associated with conditioned probability distributions, BNNs are capable of resolving the overfitting issue commonly seen in conventional neural networks and allow for smalldata training, through the variational inference process. Frequent usage of Gaussian random variables in this process requires a properly optimized Gaussian Random Number Generator (GRNG). The high hardware cost of conventional GRNG makes the hardware implementation of BNNs challenging. In this paper, we propose VIBNN, an FPGA-based hardware accelerator design for variational inference on BNNs. We explore the design space for massive amount of Gaussian variable sampling tasks in BNNs. Specifically, we introduce two high performance Gaussian (pseudo) random number generators: 1) the RAMbased Linear Feedback Gaussian Random Number Generator (RLF-GRNG), which is inspired by the properties of binomial distribution and linear feedback logics; and 2) the Bayesian Neural Network-oriented Wallace Gaussian Random Number Generator. To achieve high scalability and efficient memory access, we propose a deep pipelined accelerator architecture with fast execution and good hardware utilization. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed VIBNN implementations on an FPGA can achieve throughput of 321,543.4

Recent advances in analysis of subband amplitude envelopes of natural sounds have resulted in convincing synthesis, showing subband amplitudes to be a crucial component of perception. Probabilistic latent variable analysis is particularly revealing, but existing approaches don't incorporate prior knowledge about the physical behaviour of amplitude envelopes, such as exponential decay and feedback. We use latent force modelling, a probabilistic learning paradigm that incorporates physical knowledge into Gaussian process regression, to model correlation across spectral subband envelopes. We augment the standard latent force model approach by explicitly modelling correlations over multiple time steps. Incorporating this prior knowledge strengthens the interpretation of the latent functions as the source that generated the signal. We examine this interpretation via an experiment which shows that sounds generated by sampling from our probabilistic model are perceived to be more realistic than those generated by similar models based on nonnegative matrix factorisation, even in cases where our model is outperformed from a reconstruction error perspective.

Topic models are Bayesian models that are frequently used to capture the latent structure of certain corpora of documents or images. Each data element in such a corpus (for instance each item in a collection of scientific articles) is regarded as a convex combination of a small number of vectors corresponding to `topics' or `components'. The weights are assumed to have a Dirichlet prior distribution. The standard approach towards approximating the posterior is to use variational inference algorithms, and in particular a mean field approximation. We show that this approach suffers from an instability that can produce misleading conclusions. Namely, for certain regimes of the model parameters, variational inference outputs a non-trivial decomposition into topics. However --for the same parameter values-- the data contain no actual information about the true decomposition, and hence the output of the algorithm is uncorrelated with the true topic decomposition. Among other consequences, the estimated posterior mean is significantly wrong, and estimated Bayesian credible regions do not achieve the nominal coverage. We discuss how this instability is remedied by more accurate mean field approximations.

We study convergence rates of variational posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We formulate general conditions on prior, likelihood, and variational class that characterize the convergence rates. Under similar "prior mass and testing" conditions considered in the literature, the rate is found to be the sum of two terms. The first term stands for the convergence rate of the true posterior distribution, and the second term is contributed by the variational approximation error. For a class of priors that admit the structure of a mixture of product measures, we propose a novel prior mass condition, under which the variational approximation error of the generalized mean-field class is dominated by convergence rate of the true posterior. We demonstrate the applicability of our general results for various models, prior distributions and variational classes by deriving convergence rates of the corresponding variational posteriors.

An interesting approach to analyzing and developing tools for neural networks that has received renewed attention is to examine the equivalent kernel of the neural network. This is based on the fact that a fully connected feedforward network with one hidden layer, a certain weight distribution, an activation function, and an infinite number of neurons is a mapping that can be viewed as a projection into a Hilbert space. We show that the equivalent kernel of an MLP with ReLU or Leaky ReLU activations for all rotationally-invariant weight distributions is the same, generalizing a previous result that required Gaussian weight distributions. We derive the equivalent kernel for these cases. In deep networks, the equivalent kernel approaches a pathological fixed point, which can be used to argue why training randomly initialized networks can be difficult. Our results also have implications for weight initialization and the level sets in neural network cost functions.

The stochastic variational inference (SVI) paradigm, which combines variational inference, natural gradients, and stochastic updates, was recently proposed for large-scale data analysis in conjugate Bayesian models and demonstrated to be effective in several problems. This paper studies a family of Bayesian latent variable models with two levels of hidden variables but without any conjugacy requirements, making several contributions in this context. The first is observing that SVI, with an improved structured variational approximation, is applicable under more general conditions than previously thought with the only requirement being that the approximating variational distribution be in the same family as the prior. The resulting approach, Monte Carlo Structured SVI (MC-SSVI), significantly extends the scope of SVI, enabling large-scale learning in non-conjugate models. For models with latent Gaussian variables we propose a hybrid algorithm, using both standard and natural gradients, which is shown to improve stability and convergence. Applications in mixed effects models, sparse Gaussian processes, probabilistic matrix factorization and correlated topic models demonstrate the generality of the approach and the advantages of the proposed algorithms.