We cast the problem of combinatorial auction design in a Bayesian framework in order to incorporate prior information into the auction process and minimize the number of rounds to convergence. We first develop a generative model of agent valuations and market prices such that clearing prices become maximum a posteriori estimates given observed agent valuations. This generative model then forms the basis of an auction process which alternates between refining estimates of agent valuations and computing candidate clearing prices. We provide an implementation of the auction using assumed density filtering to estimate valuations and expectation maximization to compute prices. An empirical evaluation over a range of valuation domains demonstrates that our Bayesian auction mechanism is highly competitive against the combinatorial clock auction in terms of rounds to convergence, even under the most favorable choices of price increment for this baseline.

Predicting epidemic dynamics is of great value in understanding and controlling diffusion processes, such as infectious disease spread and information propagation. This task is intractable, especially when surveillance resources are very limited. To address the challenge, we study the problem of active surveillance, i.e., how to identify a small portion of system components as sentinels to effect monitoring, such that the epidemic dynamics of an entire system can be readily predicted from the partial data collected by such sentinels. We propose a novel measure, the gamma value, to identify the sentinels by modeling a sentinel network with row sparsity structure. We design a flexible group sparse Bayesian learning algorithm to mine the sentinel network suitable for handling both linear and non-linear dynamical systems by using the expectation maximization method and variational approximation. The efficacy of the proposed algorithm is theoretically analyzed and empirically validated using both synthetic and real-world data.

Some well-known paradoxes in decision making (e.g., the Allais paradox, the St. Peterburg paradox, the Ellsberg paradox, and the Machina paradox) reveal that choices conventional expected utility theory predicts could be inconsistent with empirical observations. So, solutions to these paradoxes can help us better understand humans decision making accurately. This is also highly related to the prediction power of a decision-making model in real-world applications. Thus, various models have been proposed to address these paradoxes. However, most of them can only solve parts of the paradoxes, and for doing so some of them have to rely on the parameter tuning without proper justifications for such bounds of parameters. To this end, this paper proposes a new descriptive decision-making model, expected utility with relative loss reduction, which can exhibit the same qualitative behaviours as those observed in experiments of these paradoxes without any additional parameter setting. In particular, we introduce the concept of relative loss reduction to reflect people's tendency to prefer ensuring a sufficient minimum loss to just a maximum expected utility in decision-making under risk or ambiguity.

Many vision and language tasks require commonsense reasoning beyond data-driven image and natural language processing. Here we adopt Visual Question Answering (VQA) as an example task, where a system is expected to answer a question in natural language about an image. Current state-of-the-art systems attempted to solve the task using deep neural architectures and achieved promising performance. However, the resulting systems are generally opaque and they struggle in understanding questions for which extra knowledge is required. In this paper, we present an explicit reasoning layer on top of a set of penultimate neural network based systems. The reasoning layer enables reasoning and answering questions where additional knowledge is required, and at the same time provides an interpretable interface to the end users. Specifically, the reasoning layer adopts a Probabilistic Soft Logic (PSL) based engine to reason over a basket of inputs: visual relations, the semantic parse of the question, and background ontological knowledge from word2vec and ConceptNet. Experimental analysis of the answers and the key evidential predicates generated on the VQA dataset validate our approach.

User feedback can be an effective indicator to the success of the human-robot conversation. However, to avoid to interrupt the online real-time conversation process, explicit feedback is usually gained at the end of a conversation. Alternatively, users' responses usually contain their implicit feedback, such as stance, sentiment, emotion, etc., towards the conversation content or the interlocutors. Therefore, exploring the implicit feedback is a natural way to optimize the conversation generation process. In this paper, we propose a novel reward function which explores the implicit feedback to optimize the future reward of a reinforcement learning based neural conversation model. A simulation strategy is applied to explore the state-action space in training and test. Experimental results show that the proposed approach outperforms the Seq2Seq model and the state-of-the-art reinforcement learning model for conversation generation on automatic and human evaluations on the OpenSubtitles and Twitter datasets.

Collaborative filtering (CF), particularly matrix factorization (MF) based methods, have been widely used in recommender systems. The literature has reported that matrix factorization methods often produce superior accuracy of rating prediction in recommender systems. However, existing matrix factorization methods rarely consider confidence of the rating prediction and thus cannot support advanced recommendation tasks. In this paper, we propose a Confidence-aware Matrix Factorization (CMF) framework to simultaneously optimize the accuracy of rating prediction and measure the prediction confidence in the model. Specifically, we introduce variance parameters for both users and items in the matrix factorization process. Then, prediction interval can be computed to measure confidence for each predicted rating. These confidence quantities can be used to enhance the quality of recommendation results based on Confidence-aware Ranking (CR). We also develop two effective implementations of our framework to compute the confidence-aware matrix factorization for large-scale data. Finally, extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework from multiple perspectives.

When an infection spreads in a community, an individual's probability of becoming infected depends on both her susceptibility and exposure to the contagion through contact with others. While one often has knowledge regarding an individual's susceptibility, in many cases, whether or not an individual's contacts are contagious is unknown.We study the problem of predicting if an individual will adopt a contagion in the presence of multiple modes of infection (exposure/susceptibility) and latent neighbor influence. We present a generative probabilistic model and a variational inference method to learn the parameters of our model. Through a series of experiments on synthetic data, we measure the ability of the proposed model to identify latent spreaders, and predict the risk of infection. Applied to a real dataset of 20,000 hospital patients, we demonstrate the utility of our model in predicting the onset of a healthcare associated infection using patient room-sharing and nurse-sharing networks. Our model outperforms existing benchmarks and provides actionable insights for the design and implementation of targeted interventions to curb the spread of infection.

The two key issues of modern Bayesian statistics are: (i) establishing principled approach for distilling statistical prior that is consistent with the given data from an initial believable scientific prior; and (ii) development of a Bayes-frequentist consolidated data analysis workflow that is more effective than either of the two separately. In this paper, we propose the idea of "Bayes via goodness of fit" as a framework for exploring these fundamental questions, in a way that is general enough to embrace almost all of the familiar probability models. Several illustrative examples show the benefit of this new point of view as a practical data analysis tool. Relationship with other Bayesian cultures is also discussed.

Correlated component analysis as proposed by Dmochowski et al. (2012) is a tool for investigating brain process similarity in the responses to multiple views of a given stimulus. Correlated components are identified under the assumption that the involved spatial networks are identical. Here we propose a hierarchical probabilistic model that can infer the level of universality in such multi-view data, from completely unrelated representations, corresponding to canonical correlation analysis, to identical representations as in correlated component analysis. This new model, which we denote Bayesian correlated component analysis, evaluates favourably against three relevant algorithms in simulated data. A well-established benchmark EEG dataset is used to further validate the new model and infer the variability of spatial representations across multiple subjects.

We propose a family of variational approximations to Bayesian posterior distributions, called $\alpha$-VB, with provable statistical guarantees. The standard variational approximation is a special case of $\alpha$-VB with $\alpha=1$. When $\alpha \in(0,1]$, a novel class of variational inequalities are developed for linking the Bayes risk under the variational approximation to the objective function in the variational optimization problem, implying that maximizing the evidence lower bound in variational inference has the effect of minimizing the Bayes risk within the variational density family. Operating in a frequentist setup, the variational inequalities imply that point estimates constructed from the $\alpha$-VB procedure converge at an optimal rate to the true parameter in a wide range of problems. We illustrate our general theory with a number of examples, including the mean-field variational approximation to (low)-high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression with spike and slab priors, mixture of Gaussian models, latent Dirichlet allocation, and (mixture of) Gaussian variational approximation in regular parametric models.