Modelling sparse and large data sets is highly in demand yet challenging in recommender systems. With the computation only on the non-zero ratings, Poisson Factorization (PF) enabled by variational inference has shown its high efficiency in scalable recommendation, e.g., modeling millions of ratings. However, as PF learns the ratings by individual users on items with the Gamma distribution, it cannot capture the coupling relations between users (items) and the rating popularity (i.e., favorable rating scores that are given to one item) and rating sparsity (i.e., those users (items) with many zero ratings) for one item (user). This work proposes Coupled Poisson Factorization (CPF) to learn the couplings between users (items), and the user/item attributes (i.e., metadata) are integrated into CPF to form the Metadata-integrated CPF (mCPF) to not only handle sparse but also popular ratings in very large-scale data. Our empirical results show that the proposed models significantly outperform PF and address the key limitations in PF for scalable recommendation.

Parameter tying is a regularization method in which parameters (weights) of a machine learning model are partitioned into groups by leveraging prior knowledge and all parameters in each group are constrained to take the same value. In this paper, we consider the problem of parameter learning in Markov networks and propose a novel approach called automatic parameter tying (APT) that uses automatic instead of a priori and soft instead of hard parameter tying as a regularization method to alleviate overfitting. The key idea behind APT is to set up the learning problem as the task of finding parameters and groupings of parameters such that the likelihood plus a regularization term is maximized. The regularization term penalizes models where parameter values deviate from their group mean parameter value. We propose and use a block coordinate ascent algorithm to solve the optimization task. We analyze the sample complexity of our new learning algorithm and show that it yields optimal parameters with high probability when the groups are well separated. Experimentally, we show that our method improves upon L 2 regularization and suggest several pragmatic techniques for good practical performance.

Cell nuclei detection and fine-grained classification have been fundamental yet challenging problems in histopathology image analysis. Due to the nuclei tiny size, significant inter-/intra-class variances, as well as the inferior image quality, previous automated methods would easily suffer from limited accuracy and robustness. In the meanwhile, existing approaches usually deal with these two tasks independently, which would neglect the close relatedness of them. In this paper, we present a novel method of sibling fully convolutional network with prior objectness interaction (called SFCN-OPI) to tackle the two tasks simultaneously and interactively using a unified end-to-end framework. Specifically, the sibling FCN branches share features in earlier layers while holding respective higher layers for specific tasks. More importantly, the detection branch outputs the objectness prior which dynamically interacts with the fine-grained classification sibling branch during the training and testing processes. With this mechanism, the fine-grained classification successfully focuses on regions with high confidence of nuclei existence and outputs the conditional probability, which in turn benefits the detection through back propagation. Extensive experiments on colon cancer histology images have validated the effectiveness of our proposed SFCN-OPI and our method has outperformed the state-of-the-art methods by a large margin.

Understanding politics is challenging because the politics take the influence from everything. Even we limit ourselves to the political context in the legislative processes; we need a better understanding of latent factors, such as legislators, bills, their ideal points, and their relations. From the modeling perspective, this is difficult 1) because these observations lie in a high dimension that requires learning on low dimensional representations, and 2) because these observations require complex probabilistic modeling with latent variables to reflect the causalities. This paper presents a new model to reflect and understand this political setting, NIPEN, including factors mentioned above in the legislation. We propose two versions of NIPEN: one is a hybrid model of deep learning and probabilistic graphical model, and the other model is a neural tensor model. Our result indicates that NIPEN successfully learns the manifold of the legislative bill's text, and NIPEN utilizes the learned low-dimensional latent variables to increase the prediction performance of legislators' votings. Additionally, by virtue of being a domain-rich probabilistic model, NIPEN shows the hidden strength of the legislators' trust network and their various characteristics on casting votes.

Collaborative filtering is an important technique for recommendation. Whereas it has been repeatedly shown to be effective in previous work,its performance remains unsatisfactory in many real-world applications, especially those where the items or users are highly diverse. In this paper, we explore an ensemble-based framework to enhance thecapability of a recommender in handling diverse data. Specifically, we formulate a probabilistic model which integrates the items, the users, as well as the associations between them into a generative process. On top of this formulation, we further derive a progressive algorithm to construct an ensemble of collaborative filters. In each iteration, a new filter is derived from re-weighted entries and incorporated into the ensemble. It is noteworthy that while the algorithmic procedure of our algorithm is apparently similar to boosting, it is derived from an essentially different formulation and thus differs in several key technical aspects. We tested the proposed method on three large datasets, and observed substantial improvement over the state of the art, including L 2 Boost, an effective method based on boosting.

Predicting travel times of vehicles in urban settings is a useful and tangible quantity of interest in the context of intelligent transportation systems. We address the problem of travel time prediction in arterial roads using data sampled from probe vehicles. There is only a limited literature on methods using data input from probe vehicles. The spatio-temporal dependencies captured by existing data driven approaches are either too detailed or very simplistic. We strike a balance of the existing data driven approaches to account for varying degrees of influence a given road may experience from its neighbors, while controlling the number of parameters to be learnt. Specifically, we use a NoisyOR conditional probability distribution (CPD) in conjunction with a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to model state transitions of various roads. We propose an efficient algorithm to learn model parameters. We also propose an algorithm for predicting travel times on trips of arbitrary durations. Using synthetic and real world data traces we demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method under different traffic conditions.

In this paper, we consider the problem of fair statistical inference involving outcome variables. Examples include classification and regression problems, and estimating treatment effects in randomized trials or observational data. The issue of fairness arises in such problems where some covariates or treatments are "sensitive," in the sense of having potential of creating discrimination. In this paper, we argue that the presence of discrimination can be formalized in a sensible way as the presence of an effect of a sensitive covariate on the outcome along certain causal pathways, a view which generalizes (Pearl 2009). A fair outcome model can then be learned by solving a constrained optimization problem. We discuss a number of complications that arise in classical statistical inference due to this view and provide workarounds based on recent work in causal and semi-parametric inference.

Juba recently proposed a formulation of learning abductive reasoning from examples, in which both the relative plausibility of various explanations, as well as which explanations are valid, are learned directly from data. The main shortcoming of this formulation of the task is that it assumes access to full-information (i.e., fully specified) examples; relatedly, it offers no role for declarative background knowledge, as such knowledge is rendered redundant in the abduction task by complete information. In this work we extend the formulation to utilize such partially specified examples, along with declarative background knowledge about the missing data. We show that it is possible to use implicitly learned rules together with the explicitly given declarative knowledge to support hypotheses in the course of abduction. We also show how to use knowledge in the form of graphical causal models to refine the proposed hypotheses. Finally, we observe that when a small explanation exists, it is possible to obtain a much-improved guarantee in the challenging exception-tolerant setting. Such small, human-understandable explanations are of particular interest for potential applications of the task.

Assessing the veracity of claims made on the Internet is an important, challenging, and timely problem. While automated fact-checking models have potential to help people better assess what they read, we argue such models must be explainable, accurate, and fast to be useful in practice; while prediction accuracy is clearly important, model transparency is critical in order for users to trust the system and integrate their own knowledge with model predictions. To achieve this, we propose a novel probabilistic graphical model (PGM) which combines machine learning with crowd annotations. Nodes in our model correspond to claim veracity, article stance regarding claims, reputation of news sources, and annotator reliabilities. We introduce a fast variational method for parameter estimation. Evaluation across two real-world datasets and three scenarios shows that: (1) joint modeling of sources, claims and crowd annotators in a PGM improves the predictive performance and interpretability for predicting claim veracity; and (2) our variational inference method achieves scalably fast parameter estimation, with only modest degradation in performance compared to Gibbs sampling. Regarding model transparency, we designed and deployed a prototype fact-checker Web tool, including a visual interface for explaining model predictions. Results of a small user study indicate that model explanations improve user satisfaction and trust in model predictions. We share our web demo, model source code, and the 13K crowd labels we collected.

Stackelberg equilibria have become increasingly important as a solution concept in computational game theory, largely inspired by practical problems such as security settings. In practice, however, there is typically uncertainty regarding the model about the opponent. This paper is, to our knowledge, the first to investigate Stackelberg equilibria under uncertainty in extensive-form games, one of the broadest classes of game. We introduce robust Stackelberg equilibria, where the uncertainty is about the opponent’s payoffs, as well as ones where the opponent has limited lookahead and the uncertainty is about the opponent’s node evaluation function. We develop a new mixed-integer program for the deterministic limited-lookahead setting. We then extend the program to the robust setting for Stackelberg equilibrium under unlimited and under limited lookahead by the opponent. We show that for the specific case of interval uncertainty about the opponent’s payoffs (or about the opponent’s node evaluations in the case of limited lookahead), robust Stackelberg equilibria can be computed with a mixed-integer program that is of the same asymptotic size as that for the deterministic setting.