Recent progress in variational inference has paid much attention to the flexibility of variational posteriors. One promising direction is to use implicit distributions, i.e., distributions without tractable densities as the variational posterior. However, existing methods on implicit posteriors still face challenges of noisy estimation and computational infeasibility when applied to models with high-dimensional latent variables. In this paper, we present a new approach named Kernel Implicit Variational Inference that addresses these challenges. As far as we know, for the first time implicit variational inference is successfully applied to Bayesian neural networks, which shows promising results on both regression and classification tasks.

Implicit models, which allow for the generation of samples but not for point-wise evaluation of probabilities, are omnipresent in real-world problems tackled by machine learning and a hot topic of current research. Some examples include data simulators that are widely used in engineering and scientific research, generative adversarial networks (GANs) for image synthesis, and hot-off-the-press approximate inference techniques relying on implicit distributions. The majority of existing approaches to learning implicit models rely on approximating the intractable distribution or optimisation objective for gradient-based optimisation, which is liable to produce inaccurate updates and thus poor models. This paper alleviates the need for such approximations by proposing the Stein gradient estimator, which directly estimates the score function of the implicitly defined distribution. The efficacy of the proposed estimator is empirically demonstrated by examples that include meta-learning for approximate inference, and entropy regularised GANs that provide improved sample diversity.

Trial-and-error based reinforcement learning (RL) has seen rapid advancements in recent times, especially with the advent of deep neural networks. However, the majority of autonomous RL algorithms require a large number of interactions with the environment. A large number of interactions may be impractical in many real-world applications, such as robotics, and many practical systems have to obey limitations in the form of state space or control constraints. To reduce the number of system interactions while simultaneously handling constraints, we propose a model-based RL framework based on probabilistic Model Predictive Control (MPC). In particular, we propose to learn a probabilistic transition model using Gaussian Processes (GPs) to incorporate model uncertainty into long-term predictions, thereby, reducing the impact of model errors. We then use MPC to find a control sequence that minimises the expected long-term cost. We provide theoretical guarantees for first-order optimality in the GP-based transition models with deterministic approximate inference for long-term planning. We demonstrate that our approach does not only achieve state-of-the-art data efficiency, but also is a principled way for RL in constrained environments.

Visual analytics systems combine machine learning or other analytic techniques with interactive data visualization to promote sensemaking and analytical reasoning. It is through such techniques that people can make sense of large, complex data. While progress has been made, the tactful combination of machine learning and data visualization is still under-explored. This state-of-the-art report presents a summary of the progress that has been made by highlighting and synthesizing select research advances. Further, it presents opportunities and challenges to enhance the synergy between machine learning and visual analytics for impactful future research directions.

The $k$-means algorithm is the most popular nonparametric clustering method in use, but cannot generally be applied to data sets with missing observations. The usual practice with such data sets is to either impute the values under an assumption of a missing-at-random mechanism or to ignore the incomplete records, and then to use the desired clustering method. We develop an efficient version of the $k$-means algorithm that allows for clustering cases where not all the features have observations recorded. Our extension is called $k_m$-means and reduces to the $k$-means algorithm when all records are complete. We also provide strategies to initialize our algorithm and to estimate the number of groups in the data set. Illustrations and simulations demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in a variety of settings and patterns of missing data. Our methods are also applied to the clustering of gamma-ray bursts and to the analysis of activation images obtained from a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging experiment.

Causal discovery from empirical data is a fundamental problem in many scientific domains. Observational data allows for identifiability only up to Markov equivalence class. In this paper we first propose a polynomial time algorithm for learning the exact correctly-oriented structure of the transitive reduction of any causal Bayesian networks with high probability, by using interventional path queries. Each path query takes as input an origin node and a target node, and answers whether there is a directed path from the origin to the target. This is done by intervening the origin node and observing samples from the target node. We theoretically show the logarithmic sample complexity for the size of interventional data per path query, for continuous and discrete networks. We further extend our work to learn the transitive edges using logarithmic sample complexity (albeit in time exponential in the maximum number of parents for discrete networks). This allows us to learn the full network. We also provide an analysis of imperfect interventions.

Distribution regression has recently attracted much interest as a generic solution to the problem of supervised learning where labels are available at the group level, rather than at the individual level. Current approaches, however, do not propagate the uncertainty in observations due to sampling variability in the groups. This effectively assumes that small and large groups are estimated equally well, and should have equal weight in the final regression. We account for this uncertainty with a Bayesian distribution regression formalism, improving the robustness and performance of the model when group sizes vary. We frame our models in a neural network style, allowing for simple MAP inference using backpropagation to learn the parameters, as well as MCMC-based inference which can fully propagate uncertainty. We demonstrate our approach on illustrative toy datasets, as well as on a challenging problem of predicting age from images.

"Limited-Service Restaurants" (LSRs) is how the restaurant industry refers collectively to fast food and fast-casual dining establishments. Marketers who specialize in LSRs often employ marketing research to evaluate hypotheses about their brands or to detect segments within their markets. An important additional purpose of market research is to understand the total structure of a market, to find out what guests consider important about the LSR experience. Without understanding the way that LSR guests think, marketers fly blind about what innovations in menu or service will appeal to guests. Fundamental market research helps with brand positioning and allocating marketing resources (Marketing Mix Analysis), and also in generating unexpected directions for additional research.

In multi-objective decision planning and learning, much attention is paid to producing optimal solution sets that contain an optimal policy for every possible user preference profile. We argue that the step that follows, i.e, determining which policy to execute by maximising the user's intrinsic utility function over this (possibly infinite) set, is under-studied. This paper aims to fill this gap. We build on previous work on Gaussian processes and pairwise comparisons for preference modelling, extend it to the multi-objective decision support scenario, and propose new ordered preference elicitation strategies based on ranking and clustering. Our main contribution is an in-depth evaluation of these strategies using computer and human-based experiments. We show that our proposed elicitation strategies outperform the currently used pairwise methods, and found that users prefer ranking most. Our experiments further show that utilising monotonicity information in GPs by using a linear prior mean at the start and virtual comparisons to the nadir and ideal points, increases performance. We demonstrate our decision support framework in a real-world study on traffic regulation, conducted with the city of Amsterdam.

We present a novel model architecture which leverages deep learning tools to perform exact Bayesian inference on sets of high dimensional, complex observations. Our model is provably exchangeable, meaning that the joint distribution over observations is invariant under permutation: this property lies at the heart of Bayesian inference. The model does not require variational approximations to train, and new samples can be generated conditional on previous samples, with cost linear in the size of the conditioning set. The advantages of our architecture are demonstrated on learning tasks requiring generalisation from short observed sequences while modelling sequence variability, such as conditional image generation, few-shot learning, set completion, and anomaly detection.