A classic approach for learning Bayesian networks from data is to identify a maximum a posteriori (MAP) network structure. In the case of discrete Bayesian networks, MAP networks are selected by maximising one of several possible Bayesian Dirichlet (BD) scores; the most famous is the Bayesian Dirichlet equivalent uniform (BDeu) score from Heckerman et al (1995). The key properties of BDeu arise from its uniform prior over the parameters of each local distribution in the network, which makes structure learning computationally efficient; it does not require the elicitation of prior knowledge from experts; and it satisfies score equivalence. In this paper we will review the derivation and the properties of BD scores, and of BDeu in particular, and we will link them to the corresponding entropy estimates to study them from an information theoretic perspective. To this end, we will work in the context of the foundational work of Giffin and Caticha (2007), who showed that Bayesian inference can be framed as a particular case of the maximum relative entropy principle. We will use this connection to show that BDeu should not be used for structure learning from sparse data, since it violates the maximum relative entropy principle; and that it is also problematic from a more classic Bayesian model selection perspective, because it produces Bayes factors that are sensitive to the value of its only hyperparameter. Using a large simulation study, we found in our previous work (Scutari, 2016) that the Bayesian Dirichlet sparse (BDs) score seems to provide better accuracy in structure learning; in this paper we further show that BDs does not suffer from the issues above, and we recommend to use it for sparse data instead of BDeu. Finally, will show that these issues are in fact different aspects of the same problem and a consequence of the distributional assumptions of the prior.

Predictive models learned from historical data are widely used to help companies and organizations make decisions. However, they may digitally unfairly treat unwanted groups, raising concerns about fairness and discrimination. In this paper, we study the fairness-aware ranking problem which aims to discover discrimination in ranked datasets and reconstruct the fair ranking. Existing methods in fairness-aware ranking are mainly based on statistical parity that cannot measure the true discriminatory effect since discrimination is causal. On the other hand, existing methods in causal-based anti-discrimination learning focus on classification problems and cannot be directly applied to handle the ranked data. To address these limitations, we propose to map the rank position to a continuous score variable that represents the qualification of the candidates. Then, we build a causal graph that consists of both the discrete profile attributes and the continuous score. The path-specific effect technique is extended to the mixed-variable causal graph to identify both direct and indirect discrimination. The relationship between the path-specific effects for the ranked data and those for the binary decision is theoretically analyzed. Finally, algorithms for discovering and removing discrimination from a ranked dataset are developed. Experiments using the real dataset show the effectiveness of our approaches.

An important metric of users' satisfaction and engagement within on-line streaming services is the user session length, i.e. the amount of time they spend on a service continuously without interruption. Being able to predict this value directly benefits the recommendation and ad pacing contexts in music and video streaming services. Recent research has shown that predicting the exact amount of time spent is highly nontrivial due to many external factors for which a user can end a session, and the lack of predictive covariates. Most of the other related literature on duration based user engagement has focused on dwell time for websites, for search and display ads, mainly for post-click satisfaction prediction or ad ranking. In this work we present a novel framework inspired by hierarchical Bayesian modeling to predict, at the moment of login, the amount of time a user will spend in the streaming service. The time spent by a user on a platform depends upon user-specific latent variables which are learned via hierarchical shrinkage. Our framework enjoys theoretical guarantees, naturally incorporates flexible parametric/nonparametric models on the covariates and is found to outperform state-of- the-art estimators in terms of efficiency and predictive performance on real world datasets.

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs, also known as Bayesian networks) is a challenging problem since the search space of DAGs is combinatorial and scales superexponentially with the number of nodes. Existing approaches rely on various local heuristics for enforcing the acyclicity constraint and are not well-suited to general purpose optimization packages for their solution. In this paper, we introduce a fundamentally different strategy: We formulate the structure learning problem as a smooth, constrained optimization problem over real matrices that avoids this combinatorial constraint entirely. This is achieved by a novel characterization of acyclicity that is not only smooth but also exact. The resulting nonconvex, constrained program involves smooth functions whose gradients are easy to compute and only involve elementary matrix operations. By using existing black-box optimization routines, our method uses global search to find an optimal DAG and can be implemented in about 50 lines of Python and outperforms existing methods without imposing any structural constraints.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) often require good regularizers to generalize well. Currently, state-of-the-art DNN regularization techniques consist in randomly dropping units and/or connections on each iteration of the training algorithm. Dropout and DropConnect are characteristic examples of such regularizers, that are widely popular among practitioners. However, a drawback of such approaches consists in the fact that their postulated probability of random unit/connection omission is a constant that must be heuristically selected based on the obtained performance in some validation set. To alleviate this burden, in this paper we regard the DNN regularization problem from a Bayesian inference perspective: We impose a sparsity-inducing prior over the network synaptic weights, where the sparsity is induced by a set of Bernoulli-distributed binary variables with Beta (hyper-)priors over their prior parameters. This way, we eventually allow for marginalizing over the DNN synaptic connectivity for output generation, thus giving rise to an effective, heuristics-free, network regularization scheme. We perform Bayesian inference for the resulting hierarchical model by means of an efficient Black-Box Variational inference scheme. We exhibit the advantages of our method over existing approaches by conducting an extensive experimental evaluation using benchmark datasets.

Computing the partition function $Z$ of a discrete graphical model is a fundamental inference challenge. Since this is computationally intractable, variational approximations are often used in practice. Recently, so-called gauge transformations were used to improve variational lower bounds on $Z$. In this paper, we propose a new gauge-variational approach, termed WMBE-G, which combines gauge transformations with the weighted mini-bucket elimination (WMBE) method. WMBE-G can provide both upper and lower bounds on $Z$, and is easier to optimize than the prior gauge-variational algorithm. We show that WMBE-G strictly improves the earlier WMBE approximation for symmetric models including Ising models with no magnetic field. Our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of WMBE-G even for generic, nonsymmetric models.

We propose SEARNN, a novel training algorithm for recurrent neural networks (RNNs) inspired by the "learning to search" (L2S) approach to structured prediction. RNNs have been widely successful in structured prediction applications such as machine translation or parsing, and are commonly trained using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Unfortunately, this training loss is not always an appropriate surrogate for the test error: by only maximizing the ground truth probability, it fails to exploit the wealth of information offered by structured losses. Further, it introduces discrepancies between training and predicting (such as exposure bias) that may hurt test performance. Instead, SEARNN leverages test-alike search space exploration to introduce global-local losses that are closer to the test error. We first demonstrate improved performance over MLE on two different tasks: OCR and spelling correction. Then, we propose a subsampling strategy to enable SEARNN to scale to large vocabulary sizes. This allows us to validate the benefits of our approach on a machine translation task.

In the medical community, there is a pressing need for personalized predictions of how a disruptive event, such as a treatment or disease, will impact particular bodily function levels. Of particular interest is the extent to which the function is initially perturbed by the event and the ensuing pattern of recovery. In many contexts, such as mental acuity following a stroke or sexual function following prostatectomy, the post-event trajectory generally exhibits what we call a recovery curve shape, characterized by an initial instantaneous drop followed by a monotonic rise towards an asymptotic level not exceeding the original function level. Here, we propose a Bayesian model that can be used to predict a patient's expected recovery curve, given information about the patient that is available before the event. This paper presents a decision aid for patients considering a medical treatment who want to know what adverse side effect the treatment would have on a particular bodily function. In particular, our model will be used to display to the patient a distribution over post-treatment function trajectories, conveying the uncertainty in predictions that should be considered in decision-making.

We show that Entropy-SGD (Chaudhari et al., 2017), when viewed as a learning algorithm, optimizes a PAC-Bayes bound on the risk of a Gibbs (posterior) classifier, i.e., a randomized classifier obtained by a risk-sensitive perturbation of the weights of a learned classifier. Entropy-SGD works by optimizing the bound's prior, violating the hypothesis of the PAC-Bayes theorem that the prior is chosen independently of the data. Indeed, available implementations of Entropy-SGD rapidly obtain zero training error on random labels and the same holds of the Gibbs posterior. In order to obtain a valid generalization bound, we rely on a result showing that data-dependent priors obtained by stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) yield valid PAC-Bayes bounds provided the target distribution of SGLD is $\epsilon$-differentially private. We observe that test error on MNIST and CIFAR10 falls within the (empirically nonvacuous) risk bounds computed under the assumption that SGLD reaches stationarity. In particular, Entropy-SGLD can be configured to yield relatively tight generalization bounds and still fit real labels, although these same settings do not obtain state-of-the-art performance.

PageRank and RBMs are not Markov chain approximations, rather they use Markov chains in their implementation. Similarly, LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) is a generative probabilistic model (aka Bayesian hierarchical model) and not a variational approximation. LDA may use variational approximation methods for inference. Let me take the LDA model as an example. In LDA, a complicated generative model is constructed to learn the topic allocation probabilities of different documents.