The use of formal statistical methods to analyse quantitative data in data science has increased considerably over the last few years. One such approach, Bayesian Decision Theory (BDT), also known as Bayesian Hypothesis Testing and Bayesian inference, is a fundamental statistical approach that quantifies the tradeoffs between various decisions using distributions and costs that accompany such decisions. In pattern recognition it is used for designing classifiers making the assumption that the problem is posed in probabilistic terms, and that all of the relevant probability values are known. Generally, we don't have such perfect information but it is a good place to start when studying machine learning, statistical inference, and detection theory in signal processing. BDT also has many applications in science, engineering, and medicine.

Distribution grid is the medium and low voltage part of a large power system. Structurally, the majority of distribution networks operate radially, such that energized lines form a collection of trees, i.e. forest, with a substation being at the root of any tree. The operational topology/forest may change from time to time, however tracking these changes, even though important for the distribution grid operation and control, is hindered by limited real-time monitoring. This paper develops a learning framework to reconstruct radial operational structure of the distribution grid from synchronized voltage measurements in the grid subject to the exogenous fluctuations in nodal power consumption. To detect operational lines our learning algorithm uses conditional independence tests for continuous random variables that is applicable to a wide class of probability distributions of the nodal consumption and Gaussian injections in particular. Moreover, our algorithm applies to the practical case of unbalanced three-phase power flow. Algorithm performance is validated on AC power flow simulations over IEEE distribution grid test cases.

In this paper we study the frequentist convergence rate for the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (Blei et al., 2003) topic models. We show that the maximum likelihood estimator converges to one of the finitely many equivalent parameters in Wasserstein's distance metric at a rate of $n^{-1/4}$ without assuming separability or non-degeneracy of the underlying topics and/or the existence of more than three words per document, thus generalizing the previous works of Anandkumar et al. (2012, 2014) from an information-theoretical perspective. We also show that the $n^{-1/4}$ convergence rate is optimal in the worst case.

In order to alleviate data sparsity and over-fitting problems in maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for sequence prediction tasks, we propose the Generative Bridging Network (GBN), in which a novel bridge module is introduced to assist the training of the sequence prediction model (the generator network). Unlike MLE directly maximizing the conditional likelihood, the bridge extends the point-wise ground truth to a bridge distribution conditioned on it, and the generator is optimized to minimize their KL-divergence. Three different GBNs, namely uniform GBN, language-model GBN and coaching GBN, are proposed to penalize confidence, enhance language smoothness and relieve learning burden. Experiments conducted on two recognized sequence prediction tasks (machine translation and abstractive text summarization) show that our proposed GBNs can yield significant improvements over strong baselines. Furthermore, by analyzing samples drawn from different bridges, expected influences on the generator are verified.

Data quality issues have attracted widespread attention due to the negative impacts of dirty data on data mining and machine learning results. The relationship between data quality and the accuracy of results could be applied on the selection of the appropriate algorithm with the consideration of data quality and the determination of the data share to clean. However, rare research has focused on exploring such relationship. Motivated by this, this paper conducts an experimental comparison for the effects of missing, inconsistent and conflicting data on classification, clustering, and regression algorithms. Based on the experimental findings, we provide guidelines for algorithm selection and data cleaning.

We formalize the notion of nesting probabilistic programming queries and investigate the resulting statistical implications. We demonstrate that query nesting allows the definition of models which could not otherwise be expressed, such as those involving agents reasoning about other agents, but that existing systems take approaches that lead to inconsistent estimates. We show how to correct this by delineating possible ways one might want to nest queries and asserting the respective conditions required for convergence. We further introduce, and prove the correctness of, a new online nested Monte Carlo estimation method that makes it substantially easier to ensure these conditions are met, thereby providing a simple framework for designing statistically correct inference engines.

Bayesian Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) is a promising approach for understanding uncertainty and structure in matrix data. However, a large volume of applied work optimizes traditional non-Bayesian NMF objectives that fail to provide a principled understanding of the non-identifiability inherent in NMF-- an issue ideally addressed by a Bayesian approach. Despite their suitability, current Bayesian NMF approaches have failed to gain popularity in an applied setting; they sacrifice flexibility in modeling for tractable computation, tend to get stuck in local modes, and require many thousands of samples for meaningful uncertainty estimates. We address these issues through a particle-based variational approach to Bayesian NMF that only requires the joint likelihood to be differentiable for tractability, uses a novel initialization technique to identify multiple modes in the posterior, and allows domain experts to inspect a `small' set of factorizations that faithfully represent the posterior. We introduce and employ a class of likelihood and prior distributions for NMF that formulate a Bayesian model using popular non-Bayesian NMF objectives. On several real datasets, we obtain better particle approximations to the Bayesian NMF posterior in less time than baselines and demonstrate the significant role that multimodality plays in NMF-related tasks.

Model selection is crucial to high-dimensional learning and inference for contemporary big data applications in pinpointing the best set of covariates among a sequence of candidate interpretable models. Most existing work assumes implicitly that the models are correctly specified or have fixed dimensionality. Yet both features of model misspecification and high dimensionality are prevalent in practice. In this paper, we exploit the framework of model selection principles in misspecified models originated in Lv and Liu (2014) and investigate the asymptotic expansion of Bayesian principle of model selection in the setting of high-dimensional misspecified models. With a natural choice of prior probabilities that encourages interpretability and incorporates Kullback-Leibler divergence, we suggest the high-dimensional generalized Bayesian information criterion with prior probability (HGBIC_p) for large-scale model selection with misspecification. Our new information criterion characterizes the impacts of both model misspecification and high dimensionality on model selection. We further establish the consistency of covariance contrast matrix estimation and the model selection consistency of HGBIC_p in ultra-high dimensions under some mild regularity conditions. The advantages of our new method are supported by numerical studies.

Edward is a Python library for probabilistic modeling, inference, and criticism. It is a testbed for fast experimentation and research with probabilistic models, ranging from classical hierarchical models on small data sets to complex deep probabilistic models on large data sets. Edward is built on TensorFlow. It enables features such as computational graphs, distributed training, CPU/GPU integration, automatic differentiation, and visualization with TensorBoard. Edward is led by Dustin Tran with guidance by David Blei.

We consider the problem of bipartite community detection in networks, or more generally the network biclustering problem. We present a fast two-stage procedure based on spectral initialization followed by the application of a pseudo-likelihood classifier twice. Under mild regularity conditions, we establish the weak consistency of the procedure (i.e., the convergence of the misclassification rate to zero) under a general bipartite stochastic block model. We show that the procedure is optimal in the sense that it achieves the optimal convergence rate that is achievable by a biclustering oracle, adaptively over the whole class, up to constants. The optimal rate we obtain sharpens some of the existing results and generalizes others to a wide regime of average degree growth. As a special case, we recover the known exact recovery threshold in the $\log n$ regime of sparsity. To obtain the general consistency result, as part of the provable version of the algorithm, we introduce a sub-block partitioning scheme that is also computationally attractive, allowing for distributed implementation of the algorithm without sacrificing optimality. The provable version of the algorithm is derived from a general blueprint for pseudo-likelihood biclustering algorithms that employ simple EM type updates. We show the effectiveness of this general class by numerical simulations.