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 Uncertainty


Sequential Monte Carlo for Policy Optimization in Continuous POMDPs

Neural Information Processing Systems

Optimal decision-making under partial observability requires agents to balance reducing uncertainty (exploration) against pursuing immediate objectives (exploitation). In this paper, we introduce a novel policy optimization framework for continuous partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) that explicitly addresses this challenge. Our method casts policy learning as probabilistic inference in a non-Markovian Feynman-Kac model that inherently captures the value of information gathering by anticipating future observations, without requiring suboptimal approximations or handcrafted heuristics. To optimize policies under this model, we develop a nested sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that efficiently estimates a history-dependent policy gradient under samples from the optimal trajectory distribution induced by the POMDP. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm across standard continuous POMDP benchmarks, where existing methods struggle to act under uncertainty.


Uncertainty-Guided Exploration for Efficient AlphaZero Training

Neural Information Processing Systems

AlphaZero has achieved remarkable success in complex decision-making problems through self-play and neural network training. However, its self-play process remains inefficient due to limited exploration of high-uncertainty positions, the overlooked runner-up decisions in Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), and high variance in value labels. To address these challenges, we propose and evaluate uncertainty-guided exploration by branching from high-uncertainty positions using our proposed Label Change Rate (LCR) metric, which is further refined by a Bayesian inference framework. Our proposed approach leverages runner-up MCTS decisions to create multiple variations, and ensembles value labels across these variations to reduce variance. We investigate three key design parameters for our branching strategy: where to branch, how many variations to branch, and which move to play in the new branch. Our empirical findings indicate that branching with 10 variations per game provides the best performance-exploration balance. Overall, our end-to-end results show an improved sample efficiency over the baseline by 58.5% on 9x9 Go in the early stage of training and by 47.3% on 19x19 Go in the late stage of training.


Exploration from a Primal-Dual Lens: Value-Incentivized Actor-Critic Methods for Sample-Efficient Online RL

Neural Information Processing Systems

Online reinforcement learning (RL) with complex function approximations such as transformers and deep neural networks plays a significant role in the modern practice of artificial intelligence. Despite its popularity and importance, balancing the fundamental trade-off between exploration and exploitation remains a longstanding challenge; in particular, we are still in lack of efficient and practical schemes that are backed by theoretical performance guarantees. Motivated by recent developments in exploration via optimistic regularization, this paper provides an interpretation of the principle of optimism through the lens of primal-dual optimization. From this fresh perspective, we set forth a new value-incentivized actor-critic (VAC) method, which optimizes a single easy-to-optimize objective integrating exploration and exploitation -- it promotes state-action and policy estimates that are both consistent with collected data transitions and result in higher value functions. Theoretically, the proposed VAC method has near-optimal regret guarantees under linear Markov decision processes (MDPs) in both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon settings, which can be extended to the general function approximation setting under appropriate assumptions.


CausalDynamics: A large-scale benchmark for structural discovery of dynamical causal models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associated benchmarks are tailored to deterministic, low-dimensional and weakly nonlinear time-series data. To address these limitations, we present CausalDynamics, a large-scale benchmark and extensible data generation framework to advance the structural discovery of dynamical causal models. Our benchmark consists of true causal graphs derived from thousands of both linearly and nonlinearly coupled ordinary and stochastic differential equations as well as two idealized climate models. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms for graph reconstruction on systems with noisy, confounded, and lagged dynamics. CausalDynamics consists of a plug-and-play, build-yourown coupling workflow that enables the construction of a hierarchy of physical systems. We anticipate that our framework will facilitate the development of robust causal discovery algorithms that are broadly applicable across domains while addressing their unique challenges. We provide a user-friendly implementation and documentation on https://kausable.github.io/CausalDynamics.


Information Theoretic Learning for Diffusion Models with Warm Start

Neural Information Processing Systems

Generative models that maximize model likelihood have gained traction in many practical settings. Among them, perturbation-based approaches underpin many state-of-the-art likelihood estimation models, yet they often face slow convergence and limited theoretical understanding. In this paper, we derive a tighter likelihood bound for noise-driven models to improve both the accuracy and efficiency of maximum likelihood learning. Our key insight extends the classical Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence-Fisher information relationship to arbitrary noise perturbations, going beyond the Gaussian assumption and enabling structured noise distributions. This formulation allows flexible use of randomized noise distributions that naturally account for sensor artifacts, quantization effects, and data distribution smoothing, while remaining compatible with standard diffusion training. Treating the diffusion process as a Gaussian channel, we further express the mismatched entropy between data and model, showing that the proposed objective upper-bounds the negative log-likelihood (NLL). In experiments, our models achieve competitive NLL on CIFAR-10 and state-of-the-art results on ImageNet across multiple resolutions, all without data augmentation, and the framework extends naturally to discrete data.


Adversary Aware Optimization for Robust Defense

Neural Information Processing Systems

Deep neural networks remain highly susceptible to adversarial attacks, where small, subtle perturbations to input images may induce misclassification. We propose a novel optimization-based purification framework that directly removes these perturbations by maximizing a Bayesian-inspired objective combining a pretrained diffusion prior with a likelihood term tailored to the adversarial perturbation space. Our method iteratively refines a given input through gradient-based updates of a combined score-based loss to guide the purification process. Unlike existing optimization-based defenses that treat adversarial noise as generic corruption, our approach explicitly integrates the adversarial landscape into the objective. Experiments performed on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 demonstrate strong robust accuracy against a range of common adversarial attacks. Our work offers a principled testtime defense grounded in probabilistic inference using score-based generative models.


Stochastic Process Learning via Operator Flow Matching

Neural Information Processing Systems

Expanding on neural operators, we propose a novel framework for stochastic process learning across arbitrary domains. In particular, we develop operator flow matching (OFM) for learning stochastic process priors on function spaces. OFM provides the probability density of the values of any collection of points and enables mathematically tractable functional regression at new points with mean and density estimation. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art models in stochastic process learning, functional regression, and prior learning.


36526ff8f18e4654cf95acd81921e00b-Paper-Conference.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

Effective trajectory stitching for long-horizon planning is a significant challenge in robotic decision-making. While diffusion models have shown promise in planning, they are limited to solving tasks similar to those seen in their training data. We propose CompDiffuser, a novel generative approach that can solve new tasks by learning to compositionally stitch together shorter trajectory chunks from previously seen tasks. Our key insight is modeling the trajectory distribution by subdividing it into overlapping chunks and learning their conditional relationships through a single bidirectional diffusion model. This allows information to propagate between segments during generation, ensuring physically consistent connections. We conduct experiments on benchmark tasks of various difficulties, covering different environment sizes, agent state dimension, trajectory types, training data quality, and show that CompDiffuser significantly outperforms existing methods.


Inexact Column Generation for Bayesian Network Structure Learning via Difference-of-Submodular Optimization

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we consider a score-based Integer Programming (IP) approach for solving the Bayesian Network Structure Learning (BNSL) problem. State-of-theart BNSLIP formulations suffer from the exponentially large number of variables and constraints. A standard approach in IP to address such challenges is to employ row and column generation techniques, which dynamically generate rows and columns, while the complex pricing problem remains a computational bottleneck for BNSL. For the general class of ℓ0-penalized likelihood scores, we show how the pricing problem can be reformulated as a difference of submodular optimization problem, and how the Difference of Convex Algorithm (DCA) can be applied as an inexact method to efficiently solve the pricing problems. Empirically, we show that, for continuous Gaussian data, our row and column generation approach yields solutions with higher quality than state-of-the-art score-based approaches, especially when the graph density increases, and achieves comparable performance against benchmark constraint-based and hybrid approaches, even when the graph size increases.