Bayesian Optimization (BO) methods are useful for optimizing functions that are expen- sive to evaluate, lack an analytical expression and whose evaluations can be contaminated by noise. These methods rely on a probabilistic model of the objective function, typically a Gaussian process (GP), upon which an acquisition function is built. The acquisition function guides the optimization process and measures the expected utility of performing an evaluation of the objective at a new point. GPs assume continous input variables. When this is not the case, for example when some of the input variables take categorical or integer values, one has to introduce extra approximations. Consider a suggested input location taking values in the real line. Before doing the evaluation of the objective, a common approach is to use a one hot encoding approximation for categorical variables, or to round to the closest integer, in the case of integer-valued variables. We show that this can lead to problems in the optimization process and describe a more principled approach to account for input variables that are categorical or integer-valued. We illustrate in both synthetic and a real experiments the utility of our approach, which significantly improves the results of standard BO methods using Gaussian processes on problems with categorical or integer-valued variables.

The first time I heard someone use the term maximum likelihood estimation, I went to Google and found out what it meant. Then I went to Wikipedia to find out what it really meant. To spare you the wrestling required to understand and incorporate MLE into your data science workflow, ethos, and projects, I've compiled this guide. This is funny (if you follow this strange domain of humor), and mostly right about the differences between the two camps. Not minding that our Sun going into nova is not really a repeatable experiment -- sorry, frequentists!

In many real-world robotic applications, an autonomous agent must act within and explore a partially observed environment that is unobserved by its human teammate. We consider such a setting in which the agent can, while acting, transmit declarative information to the human that helps them understand aspects of this unseen environment. Importantly, we should expect the human to have preferences about what information they are given and when they are given it. In this work, we adopt an information-theoretic view of the human's preferences: the human scores a piece of information as a function of the induced reduction in weighted entropy of their belief about the environment state. We formulate this setting as a POMDP and give a practical algorithm for solving it approximately. Then, we give an algorithm that allows the agent to sample-efficiently learn the human's preferences online. Finally, we describe an extension in which the human's preferences are time-varying. We validate our approach experimentally in two planning domains: a 2D robot mining task and a more realistic 3D robot fetching task.

Topic models have been widely explored as probabilistic generative models of documents. Traditional inference methods have sought closed-form derivations for updating the models, however as the expressiveness of these models grows, so does the difficulty of performing fast and accurate inference over their parameters. This paper presents alternative neural approaches to topic modelling by providing parameterisable distributions over topics which permit training by backpropagation in the framework of neural variational inference. In addition, with the help of a stick-breaking construction, we propose a recurrent network that is able to discover a notionally unbounded number of topics, analogous to Bayesian non-parametric topic models. Experimental results on the MXM Song Lyrics, 20NewsGroups and Reuters News datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of these neural topic models.

MAP perturbation models have emerged as a powerful framework for inference in structured prediction. Such models provide a way to efficiently sample from the Gibbs distribution and facilitate predictions that are robust to random noise. In this paper, we propose a provably polynomial time randomized algorithm for learning the parameters of perturbed MAP predictors. Our approach is based on minimizing a novel Rademacher-based generalization bound on the expected loss of a perturbed MAP predictor, which can be computed in polynomial time. We obtain conditions under which our randomized learning algorithm can guarantee generalization to unseen examples.

In Bayesian inference, the posterior distributions are difficult to obtain analytically for complex models such as neural networks. Variational inference usually uses a parametric distribution to approximate, from which we can easily draw samples. Recently discrete approximation by particles has attracted attention because of its expressive ability. An example is Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), which iteratively optimizes particles. Although SVGD has been shown to be computationally efficient empirically, its theoretical properties have not been clarified yet and no finite sample bound of a convergence rate is known. Another example is Stein points (SP), which minimizes kernelized Stein discrepancy directly. The finite sample bound of SP is $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\log{N}/N})$ for $N$ particles, which is computationally inefficient empirically, especially in high-dimensional problems. In this paper, we propose a novel method named \emph{Frank-Wolfe Stein sampling}, which minimizes the maximum mean discrepancy in a greedy way. Our method is computationally efficient empirically and theoretically achieves a faster convergence rate, $\mathcal{O}(e^{-N})$. Numerical experiments show the superiority of our method.

We introduce the Kronecker factored online Laplace approximation for overcoming catastrophic forgetting in neural networks. The method is grounded in a Bayesian online learning framework, where we recursively approximate the posterior after every task with a Gaussian, leading to a quadratic penalty on changes to the weights. The Laplace approximation requires calculating the Hessian around a mode, which is typically intractable for modern architectures. In order to make our method scalable, we leverage recent block-diagonal Kronecker factored approximations to the curvature. Our algorithm achieves over 90% test accuracy across a sequence of 50 instantiations of the permuted MNIST dataset, substantially outperforming related methods for overcoming catastrophic forgetting.

The central problem of this paper is the cost-sensitive binary classification problem, where different costs are associated with different types of mistakes. Several important machine learning applications such as medical decision making, targeted marketing, and intrusion detection can be naturally formalized as costsensitive classification setup ([1]). In these domains, the cost of missing a target is much higher than that of a false-positive, and classifiers that do not take misclassification costs into account do not perform well. The cost-sensitive classification problem has been extensively studied, and people have developed efficient algorithms with provable guarantees on the (generalization) error [6, 9, 26, 27, 11, 4]. These methods primarily take existing classification methods based on empirical risk minimization and try to adapt them in various ways to be sensitive to these misclassification costs. Despite all these efforts, the understanding of the fundamental limits of this problem is still missing. In this paper, we study the hardness of this problem by obtaining minimax lower bounds. In particular, we are interested in understanding how the cost parameter influences the hardness or complexity of the cost-sensitive classification. Minimax Lower Bounds Understanding the hardness or fundamental limits of a learning problem is important for practice for the following reasons: - They give an estimate on the number of samples required for a good performance of a learning algorithm.

Radio Frequency Identification technology has gained popularity for cheap and easy deployment. In the realm of manufacturing shopfloor, it can be used to track the location of manufacturing objects to achieve better efficiency. The underlying challenge of localization lies in the non-stationary characteristics of manufacturing shopfloor which calls for an adaptive life-long learning strategy in order to arrive at accurate localization results. This paper presents an evolving model based on a novel evolving intelligent system, namely evolving Type-2 Quantum Fuzzy Neural Network (eT2QFNN), which features an interval type-2 quantum fuzzy set with uncertain jump positions. The quantum fuzzy set possesses a graded membership degree which enables better identification of overlaps between classes. The eT2QFNN works fully in the evolving mode where all parameters including the number of rules are automatically adjusted and generated on the fly. The parameter adjustment scenario relies on decoupled extended Kalman filter method. Our numerical study shows that eT2QFNN is able to deliver comparable accuracy compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

Just FYI: "Judea Pearl created the representational and computational foundation for the processing of information under uncertainty. He is credited with the invention of Bayesian networks,..." His wiki page doesn't list his contributions, it links to other people's summaries of his contributions. The guy you say is stuck in an old paradigm is one of the main inventors of the new paradigm.