Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient approach to global optimization that relies on theoretically motivated value heuristics (acquisition functions) to guide the search process. Fully maximizing acquisition functions produces the Bayes' decision rule, but this ideal is difficult to achieve since these functions are frequently non-trivial to optimize. This statement is especially true when evaluating queries in parallel, where acquisition functions are routinely non-convex, high-dimensional, and intractable. We present two modern approaches for maximizing acquisition functions that exploit key properties thereof, namely the differentiability of Monte Carlo integration and the submodularity of parallel querying.

Estimation of reliable whole-brain connectivity is a crucial step towards the use of connectivity information in quantitative approaches to the study of neuropsychiatric disorders. When estimating brain connectivity a challenge is imposed by the paucity of time samples and the large dimensionality of the measurements. Bayesian estimation methods for network models offer a number of advantages in this context but are not commonly employed. Here we compare three different estimation methods for the multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model, that has recently gained some popularity for characterizing whole-brain connectivity. We first show that a Bayesian estimation of model parameters assuming uniform priors is equivalent to an application of the method of moments. Then, using synthetic data, we show that the Bayesian estimate scales poorly with number of nodes in the network as compared to an iterative Lyapunov optimization. In particular when the network size is in the order of that used for whole-brain studies (about 100 nodes) the Bayesian method needs about eight times more time samples than Lyapunov method in order to achieve similar estimation accuracy. We also show that the higher estimation accuracy of Lyapunov method is reflected in a much better classification of individuals based on the estimated connectivity from a real dataset of BOLD fMRI. Finally we show that the poor accuracy of Bayesian method is due to numerical errors, when the imaginary part of the connectivity estimate gets large compared to its real part.

We investigate the use of bootstrapping in the bandit setting. We first show that the commonly used non-parametric bootstrapping (NPB) procedure can be provably inefficient and establish a near-linear lower bound on the regret incurred by it under the bandit model with Bernoulli rewards. We show that NPB with an appropriate amount of forced exploration can result in sub-linear albeit sub-optimal regret. As an alternative to NPB, we propose a weighted bootstrapping (WB) procedure. For Bernoulli rewards, WB with multiplicative exponential weights is mathematically equivalent to Thompson sampling (TS) and results in near-optimal regret bounds. Similarly, in the bandit setting with Gaussian rewards, we show that WB with additive Gaussian weights achieves near-optimal regret. Beyond these special cases, we show that WB leads to better empirical performance than TS for several reward distributions bounded on $[0,1]$. For the contextual bandit setting, we give practical guidelines that make bootstrapping simple and efficient to implement and result in good empirical performance on real-world datasets.

Continual learning experiments used in current deep learning papers do not faithfully assess fundamental challenges of learning continually, masking weak-points of the suggested approaches instead. We study gaps in such existing evaluations, proposing essential experimental evaluations that are more representative of continual learning's challenges, and suggest a re-prioritization of research efforts in the field. We show that current approaches fail with our new evaluations and, to analyse these failures, we propose a variational loss which unifies many existing solutions to continual learning under a Bayesian framing, as either 'prior-focused' or 'likelihood-focused'. We show that while prior-focused approaches such as EWC and VCL perform well on existing evaluations, they perform dramatically worse when compared to likelihood-focused approaches on other simple tasks.

In our previous study, we introduced stable specification search for cross-sectional data (S3C). It is an exploratory causal method that combines stability selection concept and multi-objective optimization to search for stable and parsimonious causal structures across the entire range of model complexities. In this study, we extended S3C to S3C-Latent, to model causal relations between latent variables. We evaluated S3C-Latent on simulated data and compared the results to those of PC-MIMBuild, an extension of the PC algorithm, the state-of-the-art causal discovery method. The comparison showed that S3C-Latent achieved better performance. We also applied S3C-Latent to real-world data of children with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder and data about measuring mental abilities among pupils. The results are consistent with those of previous studies.

We design a new myopic strategy for a wide class of sequential design of experiment (DOE) problems, where the goal is to collect data in order to to fulfil a certain problem specific goal. Our approach, Myopic Posterior Sampling (MPS), is inspired by the classical posterior (Thompson) sampling algorithm for multi-armed bandits and leverages the flexibility of probabilistic programming and approximate Bayesian inference to address a broad set of problems. Empirically, this general-purpose strategy is competitive with more specialised methods in a wide array of DOE tasks, and more importantly, enables addressing complex DOE goals where no existing method seems applicable. On the theoretical side, we leverage ideas from adaptive submodularity and reinforcement learning to derive conditions under which MPS achieves sublinear regret against natural benchmark policies.

In this paper we consider the problem of combining multiple probabilistic causal models, provided by different experts, under the requirement that the aggregated model satisfy the criterion of counterfactual fairness. We build upon the work on causal models and fairness in machine learning, and we express the problem of combining multiple models within the framework of opinion pooling. We propose two simple algorithms, grounded in the theory of counterfactual fairness and causal judgment aggregation, that are guaranteed to generate aggregated probabilistic causal models respecting the criterion of fairness, and we compare their behaviors on a toy case study.

We consider testing and learning problems on causal Bayesian networks as defined by Pearl (Pearl, 2009). Given a causal Bayesian network $\mathcal{M}$ on a graph with $n$ discrete variables and bounded in-degree and bounded `confounded components', we show that $O(\log n)$ interventions on an unknown causal Bayesian network $\mathcal{X}$ on the same graph, and $\tilde{O}(n/\epsilon^2)$ samples per intervention, suffice to efficiently distinguish whether $\mathcal{X}=\mathcal{M}$ or whether there exists some intervention under which $\mathcal{X}$ and $\mathcal{M}$ are farther than $\epsilon$ in total variation distance. We also obtain sample/time/intervention efficient algorithms for: (i) testing the identity of two unknown causal Bayesian networks on the same graph; and (ii) learning a causal Bayesian network on a given graph. Although our algorithms are non-adaptive, we show that adaptivity does not help in general: $\Omega(\log n)$ interventions are necessary for testing the identity of two unknown causal Bayesian networks on the same graph, even adaptively. Our algorithms are enabled by a new subadditivity inequality for the squared Hellinger distance between two causal Bayesian networks.

Mathematics has played a substantial role to revolutionize the medical science. Intelligent systems based on mathematical theories have proved to be efficient in diagnosing various diseases. In this paper, we used an expert system based on soft set theory and fuzzy set theory named as a soft expert system to diagnose tropical disease dengue. The objective to use soft expert system is to predict the risk level of a patient having dengue fever by using input variables like age, TLC, SGOT, platelets count and blood pressure. The proposed method explicitly demonstrates the exact percentage of the risk level of dengue fever automatically circumventing for all possible (medical) imprecisions.

We present a scalable approach to performing approximate fully Bayesian inference in generic state space models. The proposed method is an alternative to particle MCMC that provides full Bayesian inference of both the dynamic latent states and the static parameters of the model. We build up on recent advances in computational statistics that combine variational methods with sequential Monte Carlo sampling and we demonstrate the advantages of performing full Bayesian inference over the static parameters rather than just performing variational EM approximations. We illustrate how our approach enables scalable inference in multivariate stochastic volatility models and self-exciting point process models that allow for flexible dynamics in the latent intensity function.