The mass, or binding energy, is the basis property of the atomic nucleus. It determines its stability, and reaction and decay rates. Quantifying the nuclear binding is important for understanding the origin of elements in the universe. The astrophysical processes responsible for the nucleosynthesis in stars often take place far from the valley of stability, where experimental masses are not known. In such cases, missing nuclear information must be provided by theoretical predictions using extreme extrapolations. Bayesian machine learning techniques can be applied to improve predictions by taking full advantage of the information contained in the deviations between experimental and calculated masses. We consider 10 global models based on nuclear Density Functional Theory as well as two more phenomenological mass models. The emulators of S2n residuals and credibility intervals defining theoretical error bars are constructed using Bayesian Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks. We consider a large training dataset pertaining to nuclei whose masses were measured before 2003. For the testing datasets, we considered those exotic nuclei whose masses have been determined after 2003. We then carried out extrapolations towards the 2n dripline. While both Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks reduce the rms deviation from experiment significantly, GP offers a better and much more stable performance. The increase in the predictive power is quite astonishing: the resulting rms deviations from experiment on the testing dataset are similar to those of more phenomenological models. The empirical coverage probability curves we obtain match very well the reference values which is highly desirable to ensure honesty of uncertainty quantification, and the estimated credibility intervals on predictions make it possible to evaluate predictive power of individual models.

We consider the problem of including additional knowledge in estimating sparse Gaussian graphical models (sGGMs) from aggregated samples, arising often in bioinformatics and neuroimaging applications. Previous joint sGGM estimators either fail to use existing knowledge or cannot scale-up to many tasks (large $K$) under a high-dimensional (large $p$) situation. In this paper, we propose a novel \underline{J}oint \underline{E}lementary \underline{E}stimator incorporating additional \underline{K}nowledge (JEEK) to infer multiple related sparse Gaussian Graphical models from large-scale heterogeneous data. Using domain knowledge as weights, we design a novel hybrid norm as the minimization objective to enforce the superposition of two weighted sparsity constraints, one on the shared interactions and the other on the task-specific structural patterns. This enables JEEK to elegantly consider various forms of existing knowledge based on the domain at hand and avoid the need to design knowledge-specific optimization. JEEK is solved through a fast and entry-wise parallelizable solution that largely improves the computational efficiency of the state-of-the-art $O(p^5K^4)$ to $O(p^2K^4)$. We conduct a rigorous statistical analysis showing that JEEK achieves the same convergence rate $O(\log(Kp)/n_{tot})$ as the state-of-the-art estimators that are much harder to compute. Empirically, on multiple synthetic datasets and two real-world data, JEEK outperforms the speed of the state-of-arts significantly while achieving the same level of prediction accuracy.

Adversarial learning is one of the most successful approaches to modelling high-dimensional probability distributions from data. The quantum computing community has recently begun to generalize this idea and to look for potential applications. In this work, we derive an adversarial algorithm for the problem of approximating an unknown quantum pure state. Although this could be done on error-corrected quantum computers, the adversarial formulation enables us to execute the algorithm on near-term quantum computers. Two ansatz circuits are optimized in tandem: One tries to approximate the target state, the other tries to distinguish between target and approximated state. Supported by numerical simulations, we show that resilient backpropagation algorithms perform remarkably well in optimizing the two circuits. We use the bipartite entanglement entropy to design an efficient heuristic for the stopping criteria. Our approach may find application in quantum state tomography.

Learning to make decisions from observed data in dynamic environments remains a problem of fundamental importance in a number of fields, from artificial intelligence and robotics, to medicine and finance. This paper concerns the problem of learning control policies for unknown linear dynamical systems so as to maximize a quadratic reward function. We present a method to optimize the expected value of the reward over the posterior distribution of the unknown system parameters, given data. The algorithm involves sequential convex programing, and enjoys reliable local convergence and robust stability guarantees. Numerical simulations and stabilization of a real-world inverted pendulum are used to demonstrate the approach, with strong performance and robustness properties observed in both.

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Gibbs sampling is a MCMC method to draw samples from a complex distribution (usually a posterior in Bayesian inference). In this post I aim to show how to do Gibbs sampling using Edward, "a Python library for probabilistic modeling". If you are new to Edward, you can install the package by following up these steps. In above code x0 and x1 are two place holders for samples of X0X 0X0 and X1X 1X1 from previous iteration. Edward helped us to write Gibbs sampling with less than 10 line of codes.

We introduce collapsed compilation, a novel approximate inference algorithm for discrete probabilistic graphical models. It is a collapsed sampling algorithm that incrementally selects which variable to sample next based on the partial sample obtained so far. This online collapsing, together with knowledge compilation inference on the remaining variables, naturally exploits local structure and context- specific independence in the distribution. These properties are naturally exploited in exact inference, but are difficult to harness for approximate inference. More- over, by having a partially compiled circuit available during sampling, collapsed compilation has access to a highly effective proposal distribution for importance sampling. Our experimental evaluation shows that collapsed compilation performs well on standard benchmarks. In particular, when the amount of exact inference is equally limited, collapsed compilation is competitive with the state of the art, and outperforms it on several benchmarks.

We consider a particular instance of a common problem in recommender systems: using a database of book reviews to inform user-targeted recommendations. In our dataset, books are categorized into genres and sub-genres. To exploit this nested taxonomy, we use a hierarchical model that enables information pooling across across similar items at many levels within the genre hierarchy. The main challenge in deploying this model is computational: the data sizes are large, and fitting the model at scale using off-the-shelf maximum likelihood procedures is prohibitive. To get around this computational bottleneck, we extend a moment-based fitting procedure proposed for fitting single-level hierarchical models to the general case of arbitrarily deep hierarchies. This extension is an order of magnetite faster than standard maximum likelihood procedures. The fitting method can be deployed beyond recommender systems to general contexts with deeply-nested hierarchical generalized linear mixed models.

We present a new algorithm for stochastic variational inference that targets at models with non-differentiable densities. One of the key challenges in stochastic variational inference is to come up with a low-variance estimator of the gradient of a variational objective. We tackle the challenge by generalizing the reparameterization trick, one of the most effective techniques for addressing the variance issue for differentiable models, so that the trick works for non-differentiable models as well. Our algorithm splits the space of latent variables into regions where the density of the variables is differentiable, and their boundaries where the density may fail to be differentiable. For each differentiable region, the algorithm applies the standard reparameterization trick and estimates the gradient restricted to the region. For each potentially non-differentiable boundary, it uses a form of manifold sampling and computes the direction for variational parameters that, if followed, would increase the boundary's contribution to the variational objective. The sum of all the estimates becomes the gradient estimate of our algorithm. Our estimator enjoys the reduced variance of the reparameterization gradient while remaining unbiased even for non-differentiable models. The experiments with our preliminary implementation confirm the benefit of reduced variance and unbiasedness.

In statistics and machine learning, approximation of an intractable integration is often achieved by using the unbiased Monte Carlo estimator, but the variances of the estimation are generally high in many applications. Control variates approaches are well-known to reduce the variance of the estimation. These control variates are typically constructed by employing predefined parametric functions or polynomials, determined by using those samples drawn from the relevant distributions. Instead, we propose to construct those control variates by learning neural networks to handle the cases when test functions are complex. In many applications, obtaining a large number of samples for Monte Carlo estimation is expensive, which may result in overfitting when training a neural network. We thus further propose to employ auxiliary random variables induced by the original ones to extend data samples for training the neural networks. We apply the proposed control variates with augmented variables to thermodynamic integration and reinforcement learning. Experimental results demonstrate that our method can achieve significant variance reduction compared with other alternatives.