Online symptom checkers have significant potential to improve patient care, however their reliability and accuracy remain variable. We hypothesised that an artificial intelligence (AI) powered triage and diagnostic system would compare favourably with human doctors with respect to triage and diagnostic accuracy. We performed a prospective validation study of the accuracy and safety of an AI powered triage and diagnostic system. Identical cases were evaluated by both an AI system and human doctors. Differential diagnoses and triage outcomes were evaluated by an independent judge, who was blinded from knowing the source (AI system or human doctor) of the outcomes. Independently of these cases, vignettes from publicly available resources were also assessed to provide a benchmark to previous studies and the diagnostic component of the MRCGP exam. Overall we found that the Babylon AI powered Triage and Diagnostic System was able to identify the condition modelled by a clinical vignette with accuracy comparable to human doctors (in terms of precision and recall). In addition, we found that the triage advice recommended by the AI System was, on average, safer than that of human doctors, when compared to the ranges of acceptable triage provided by independent expert judges, with only a minimal reduction in appropriateness.

This list is intended to introduce some of the tools of Bayesian statistics and machine learning that can be useful to computational research in cognitive science. The first section mentions several useful general references, and the others provide supplementary readings on specific topics. If you would like to suggest some additions to the list, contact Tom Griffiths.

We specialize the decoupled extended Kalman filter (DEKF) for online parameter learning in factorization models, including factorization machines, matrix and tensor factorization, and illustrate the effectiveness of the approach through simulations. Learning model parameters through the DEKF makes factorization models more broadly useful by allowing for more flexible observations through the entire exponential family, modeling parameter drift, and producing parameter uncertainty estimates that can enable explore/exploit and other applications. We use a more general dynamics of the parameters than the standard DEKF, allowing parameter drift while encouraging reasonable values. We also present an alternate derivation of the regular extended Kalman filter and DEKF that connects these methods to natural gradient methods, and suggests a similarly decoupled version of the iterated extended Kalman filter.

The problem of low-rank matrix estimation recently received a lot of attention due to challenging applications. A lot of work has been done on rank-penalized methods and convex relaxation, both on the theoretical and applied sides. However, only a few papers considered Bayesian estimation. In this paper, we review the different type of priors considered on matrices to favour low-rank. We also prove that the obtained Bayesian estimators, under suitable assumptions, enjoys the same optimality properties as the ones based on penalization.

Consider the following problem: given a database of records indexed by names (e.g., name of companies, restaurants, businesses, or universities) and a new name, determine whether the new name is in the database, and if so, which record it refers to. This problem is an instance of record linkage problem and is a challenging problem because people do not consistently use the official name, but use abbreviations, synonyms, different order of terms, different spelling of terms, short form of terms, and the name can contain typos or spacing issues. We provide a probabilistic model using relational logistic regression to find the probability of each record in the database being the desired record for a given query and find the best record(s) with respect to the probabilities. Building on term-matching and translational approaches for search, our model addresses many of the aforementioned challenges and provides good results when existing baselines fail. Using the probabilities outputted by the model, we can automate the search process for a portion of queries whose desired documents get a probability higher than a trust threshold. We evaluate our model on a large real-world dataset from a telecommunications company and compare it to several state-of-the-art baselines. The obtained results show that our model is a promising probabilistic model for record linkage for names. We also test if the knowledge learned by our model on one domain can be effectively transferred to a new domain. For this purpose, we test our model on an unseen test set from the business names of the secondString dataset. Promising results show that our model can be effectively applied to unseen datasets. Finally, we study the sensitivity of our model to the statistics of datasets.

We introduce inference trees (ITs), a new class of inference methods that build on ideas from Monte Carlo tree search to perform adaptive sampling in a manner that balances exploration with exploitation, ensures consistency, and alleviates pathologies in existing adaptive methods. ITs adaptively sample from hierarchical partitions of the parameter space, while simultaneously learning these partitions in an online manner. This enables ITs to not only identify regions of high posterior mass, but also maintain uncertainty estimates to track regions where significant posterior mass may have been missed. ITs can be based on any inference method that provides a consistent estimate of the marginal likelihood. They are particularly effective when combined with sequential Monte Carlo, where they capture long-range dependencies and yield improvements beyond proposal adaptation alone.

Natural gradient descent (NGD) minimises the cost function on a Riemannian manifold whose metric is defined by the Fisher information. In this work, we prove that if the model predictions on the training set approach the true conditional distribution of labels given inputs, then the noise inherent in minibatch gradients causes the stationary distribution of NGD to approach a Bayesian posterior, whose temperature $T \approx \epsilon N/(2B)$ is controlled by the learning rate $\epsilon$, training set size $N$ and batch size $B$. The parameter-dependence of the Fisher metric introduces an implicit prior over the parameters, which we identify as the well-known Jeffreys prior. To support our claims, we show that the distribution of samples from NGD is close to the Laplace approximation to the posterior when $T = 1$. Furthermore, the test loss of ensembles drawn using NGD falls rapidly as we increase the batch size until $B \approx \epsilon N/2$, while above this point the test loss is constant or rises slowly.

Using stochastic gradient search and the optimal filter derivative, it is possible to perform recursive (i.e., online) maximum likelihood estimation in a non-linear state-space model. As the optimal filter and its derivative are analytically intractable for such a model, they need to be approximated numerically. In [Poyiadjis, Doucet and Singh, Biometrika 2018], a recursive maximum likelihood algorithm based on a particle approximation to the optimal filter derivative has been proposed and studied through numerical simulations. Here, this algorithm and its asymptotic behavior are analyzed theoretically. We show that the algorithm accurately estimates maxima to the underlying (average) log-likelihood when the number of particles is sufficiently large. We also derive (relatively) tight bounds on the estimation error. The obtained results hold under (relatively) mild conditions and cover several classes of non-linear state-space models met in practice.

As artificial intelligence is increasingly affecting all parts of society and life, there is growing recognition that human interpretability of machine learning models is important. It is often argued that accuracy or other similar generalization performance metrics must be sacrificed in order to gain interpretability. Such arguments, however, fail to acknowledge that the overall decision-making system is composed of two entities: the learned model and a human who fuses together model outputs with his or her own information. As such, the relevant performance criteria should be for the entire system, not just for the machine learning component. In this work, we characterize the performance of such two-node tandem data fusion systems using the theory of distributed detection. In doing so, we work in the population setting and model interpretable learned models as multi-level quantizers. We prove that under our abstraction, the overall system of a human with an interpretable classifier outperforms one with a black box classifier.

Learning of dynamical systems, or state-space models, is central to many machine learning problems, such as reinforcement learning, sequence modeling, and autonomous systems. Furthermore, state-space models are at the core of recent model developments within the machine learning area, such as Gaussian process state-space models (Frigola et al. 2014a; Mattos et al. 2016; etc.), infinite factorial dynamical models (Gael et al., 2009; Valera et al., 2015), and stochastic recurrent neural networks (Fraccaro et al., 2016, for example). A strategy to learn state-space models, independently suggested by Digalakis et al. (1993) and Ghahramani and Hinton (1996), is the use of the Expectation Maximization (EM, Dempster et al. 1977) method. Even though originally proposed only for maximum likelihood estimation of linear models with Gaussian noise, the strategy can be generalized to the more challenging nonlinear and non-Gaussian cases, as well as the empirical Bayes setting. Many contributions have been made during the last decade, and this paper takes another step along the path towards a more computationally efficient method with a solid theoretical ground for learning of nonlinear dynamical systems.