Most policy search algorithms require thousands of training episodes to find an effective policy, which is often infeasible with a physical robot. This survey article focuses on the extreme other end of the spectrum: how can a robot adapt with only a handful of trials (a dozen) and a few minutes? By analogy with the word "big-data", we refer to this challenge as "micro-data reinforcement learning". We show that a first strategy is to leverage prior knowledge on the policy structure (e.g., dynamic movement primitives), on the policy parameters (e.g., demonstrations), or on the dynamics (e.g., simulators). A second strategy is to create data-driven surrogate models of the expected reward (e.g., Bayesian optimization) or the dynamical model (e.g., model-based policy search), so that the policy optimizer queries the model instead of the real system. Overall, all successful micro-data algorithms combine these two strategies by varying the kind of model and prior knowledge. The current scientific challenges essentially revolve around scaling up to complex robots (e.g., humanoids), designing generic priors, and optimizing the computing time.

We introduce a methodology for nonlinear inverse problems using a variational Bayesian approach where the unknown quantity is a spatial field. A structured Bayesian Gaussian process latent variable model is used both to construct a low-dimensional generative model of the sample-based stochastic prior as well as a surrogate for the forward evaluation. Its Bayesian formulation captures epistemic uncertainty introduced by the limited number of input and output examples, automatically selects an appropriate dimensionality for the learned latent representation of the data, and rigorously propagates the uncertainty of the data-driven dimensionality reduction of the stochastic space through the forward model surrogate. The structured Gaussian process model explicitly leverages spatial information for an informative generative prior to improve sample efficiency while achieving computational tractability through Kronecker product decompositions of the relevant kernel matrices. Importantly, the Bayesian inversion is carried out by solving a variational optimization problem, replacing traditional computationally-expensive Monte Carlo sampling. The methodology is demonstrated on an elliptic PDE and is shown to return well-calibrated posteriors and is tractable with latent spaces with over 100 dimensions.

Human posture recognition provides a dynamic field that has produced many methods. Using fuzzy subsets based data fusion methods to aggregate the results given by different types of recognition processes is a convenient way to improve recognition methods. Nevertheless, choosing a defuzzification method to imple-ment the decision is a crucial point of this approach. The goal of this paper is to present an approach where the choice of the defuzzification method is driven by the constraints of the final data user, which are expressed as limitations on indica-tors like confidence or accuracy. A practical experimentation illustrating this ap-proach is presented: from a depth camera sensor, human posture is interpreted and the defuzzification method is selected in accordance with the constraints of the final information consumer. The paper illustrates the interest of the approach in a context of postures based human robot communication.

Abstract--While we are usually focused on predicting future values of time series, it is often valuable to additionally predict their entire probability distributions, for example to evaluate risk or Monte Carlo simulations. On example of time series of 30000 Dow Jones Industrial Averages, there will be shown application of hierarchical correlation reconstruction for this purpose: mean-square fitting polynomial as joint density for (current value, context), where context is for example a few previous values. Then substituting the currently observed context and normalizing density to 1, we get predicted probability distribution for the current value. In contrast to standard machine learning approaches like neural networks, optimal coefficients here can be inexpensively directly calculated, are unique and independent, each has a specific cumulant-like interpretation, and such approximation can approach complete description of any joint distribution - providing a perfect tool to quantitatively describe and exploit statistical dependencies in time series. Modeling spatial or temporal correlation between observed values is a difficult task required in a countless number of applications.

The problem of distributed representation learning is one in which multiple sources of information $X_1,\ldots,X_K$ are processed separately so as to learn as much information as possible about some ground truth $Y$. We investigate this problem from information-theoretic grounds, through a generalization of Tishby's centralized Information Bottleneck (IB) method to the distributed setting. Specifically, $K$ encoders, $K \geq 2$, compress their observations $X_1,\ldots,X_K$ separately in a manner such that, collectively, the produced representations preserve as much information as possible about $Y$. We study both discrete memoryless (DM) and memoryless vector Gaussian data models. For the discrete model, we establish a single-letter characterization of the optimal tradeoff between complexity (or rate) and relevance (or information) for a class of memoryless sources (the observations $X_1,\ldots,X_K$ being conditionally independent given $Y$). For the vector Gaussian model, we provide an explicit characterization of the optimal complexity-relevance tradeoff. Furthermore, we develop a variational bound on the complexity-relevance tradeoff which generalizes the evidence lower bound (ELBO) to the distributed setting. We also provide two algorithms that allow to compute this bound: i) a Blahut-Arimoto type iterative algorithm which enables to compute optimal complexity-relevance encoding mappings by iterating over a set of self-consistent equations, and ii) a variational inference type algorithm in which the encoding mappings are parametrized by neural networks and the bound approximated by Markov sampling and optimized with stochastic gradient descent. Numerical results on synthetic and real datasets are provided to support the efficiency of the approaches and algorithms developed in this paper.

Missing data are ubiquitous in many domains such as healthcare. Depending on how they are missing, the (conditional) independence relations in the observed data may be different from those for the complete data generated by the underlying causal process and, as a consequence, simply applying existing causal discovery methods to the observed data may lead to wrong conclusions. It is then essential to extend existing causal discovery approaches to find true underlying causal structure from such incomplete data. In this paper, we aim at solving this problem for data that are missing with different mechanisms, including missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), and missing not at random (MNAR). With missingness mechanisms represented by missingness Graph (m-Graph), we analyze conditions under which addition correction is needed to derive conditional independence/dependence relations in the complete data. Based on our analysis, we propose missing value PC (MVPC), which combines additional corrections with traditional causal discovery algorithm, in particular, PC. Our proposed MVPC is shown in theory to give asymptotically correct results even using data that are MAR and MNAR. Experiment results illustrate that the proposed algorithm can correct the conditional independence for values MCAR, MAR and rather general cases of values MNAR both with synthetic data as well as real-life healthcare application.

Humans use signs, e.g., sentences in a spoken language, for communication and thought. Hence, symbol systems like language are crucial for our communication with other agents and adaptation to our real-world environment. The symbol systems we use in our human society adaptively and dynamically change over time. In the context of artificial intelligence (AI) and cognitive systems, the symbol grounding problem has been regarded as one of the central problems related to {\it symbols}. However, the symbol grounding problem was originally posed to connect symbolic AI and sensorimotor information and did not consider many interdisciplinary phenomena in human communication and dynamic symbol systems in our society, which semiotics considered. In this paper, we focus on the symbol emergence problem, addressing not only cognitive dynamics but also the dynamics of symbol systems in society, rather than the symbol grounding problem. We first introduce the notion of a symbol in semiotics from the humanities, to leave the very narrow idea of symbols in symbolic AI. Furthermore, over the years, it became more and more clear that symbol emergence has to be regarded as a multifaceted problem. Therefore, secondly, we review the history of the symbol emergence problem in different fields, including both biological and artificial systems, showing their mutual relations. We summarize the discussion and provide an integrative viewpoint and comprehensive overview of symbol emergence in cognitive systems. Additionally, we describe the challenges facing the creation of cognitive systems that can be part of symbol emergence systems.

Despite their popularity, many questions about the algebraic constraints imposed by linear structural equation models remain open problems. For causal discovery, two of these problems are especially important: the enumeration of the constraints imposed by a model, and deciding whether two graphs define the same statistical model. We show how the half-trek criterion can be used to make progress in both of these problems. We apply our theoretical results to a small-scale model selection problem, and find that taking the additional algebraic constraints into account may lead to significant improvements in model selection accuracy.

One of the challenges in model-based control of stochastic dynamical systems is that the state transition dynamics are involved, and it is not easy or efficient to make good-quality predictions of the states. Moreover, there are not many representational models for the majority of autonomous systems, as it is not easy to build a compact model that captures the entire dynamical subtleties and uncertainties. In this work, we present a hierarchical Bayesian linear regression model with local features to learn the dynamics of a micro-robotic system as well as two simpler examples, consisting of a stochastic mass-spring damper and a stochastic double inverted pendulum on a cart. The model is hierarchical since we assume non-stationary priors for the model parameters. These non-stationary priors make the model more flexible by imposing priors on the priors of the model. To solve the maximum likelihood (ML) problem for this hierarchical model, we use the variational expectation maximization (EM) algorithm, and enhance the procedure by introducing hidden target variables. The algorithm yields parsimonious model structures, and consistently provides fast and accurate predictions for all our examples involving large training and test sets. This demonstrates the effectiveness of the method in learning stochastic dynamics, which makes it suitable for future use in a paradigm, such as model-based reinforcement learning, to compute optimal control policies in real time.

The quantification problem consists of determining the prevalence of a given label in a target population. However, one often has access to the labels in a sample from the training population but not in the target population. A common assumption in this situation is that of prior probability shift, that is, once the labels are known, the distribution of the features is the same in the training and target populations. In this paper, we derive a new lower bound for the risk of the quantification problem under the prior shift assumption. Complementing this lower bound, we present a new approximately minimax class of estimators, ratio estimators, which generalize several previous proposals in the literature. Using a weaker version of the prior shift assumption, which can be tested, we show that ratio estimators can be used to build confidence intervals for the quantification problem. We also extend the ratio estimator so that it can: (i) incorporate labels from the target population, when they are available and (ii) estimate how the prevalence of positive labels varies according to a function of certain covariates.