To backpropagate the gradients through discrete stochastic layers, we encode the true gradients into a multiplication between random noises and the difference of the same function of two different sets of discrete latent variables, which are correlated with these random noises. The expectations of that multiplication over iterations are zeros combined with spikes from time to time. To modulate the frequencies, amplitudes, and signs of the spikes to capture the temporal evolution of the true gradients, we propose the augment-REINFORCE-merge (ARM) estimator that combines data augmentation, the score-function estimator, permutation of the indices of latent variables, and variance reduction for Monte Carlo integration using common random numbers. The ARM estimator provides low-variance and unbiased gradient estimates for the parameters of discrete distributions, leading to state-of-the-art performance in both auto-encoding variational Bayes and maximum likelihood inference, for discrete latent variable models with one or multiple discrete stochastic layers.

A preference order or ranking aggregated from pairwise comparison data is commonly understood as a strict total order. However, in real-world scenarios, some items are intrinsically ambiguous in comparisons, which may very well be an inherent uncertainty of the data. In this case, the conventional total order ranking can not capture such uncertainty with mere global ranking or utility scores. In this paper, we are specifically interested in the recent surge in crowdsourcing applications to predict partial but more accurate (i.e., making less incorrect statements) orders rather than complete ones. To do so, we propose a novel framework to learn some probabilistic models of partial orders as a \emph{margin-based Maximum Likelihood Estimate} (MLE) method. We prove that the induced MLE is a joint convex optimization problem with respect to all the parameters, including the global ranking scores and margin parameter. Moreover, three kinds of generalized linear models are studied, including the basic uniform model, Bradley-Terry model, and Thurstone-Mosteller model, equipped with some theoretical analysis on FDR and Power control for the proposed methods. The validity of these models are supported by experiments with both simulated and real-world datasets, which shows that the proposed models exhibit improvements compared with traditional state-of-the-art algorithms.

Reviews of a product are defined as the individual assessment of the product or service 1. Reviews must contain information about quality, or characteristics of the product. The reviews have become a good resource for decision making. In recent years, along with web spam 19, 22, email spam 23, 10 and blog spam 20, 18, review spam detection has attracted attention from research community 11, 14. Reviews on products are very important for both sellers and buyers in purchasing online. Customers who use the service from e-commerce websites will reference information from other customers through these reviews and make the best decision when they intend to buy a product.

Latent truth discovery, LTD for short, refers to the problem of aggregating ltiple claims from various sources in order to estimate the plausibility of atements about entities. In the absence of a ground truth, this problem is highly challenging, when some sources provide conflicting claims and others no claims at all. In this work we provide an unsupervised stochastic inference procedure on top of a model that combines restricted Boltzmann machines with feed-forward neural networks to accurately infer the reliability of sources as well as the plausibility of statements about entities. In comparison to prior work our approach stands out (1) by allowing the incorporation of arbitrary features about sources and claims, (2) by generalizing from reliability per source towards a reliability function, and thus (3) enabling the estimation of source reliability even for sources that have provided no or very few claims, (4) by building on efficient and scalable stochastic inference algorithms, and (5) by outperforming the state-of-the-art by a considerable margin.

Farr and Mandel reanalyze our data, finding initial mass function slopes for high-mass stars in 30 Doradus that agree with our results. However, their reanalysis appears to underpredict the observed number of massive stars. Their technique results in more precise slopes than in our work, strengthening our conclusion that there is an excess of massive stars ( 30 solar masses) in 30 Doradus. Farr and Mandel (1) reanalyzed the results of our study (2), in which we investigated the star formation history (SFH) and stellar initial mass function (IMF) of the local 30 Doradus (30 Dor) starburst in the Large Magellanic Cloud and found an overabundance of stars with initial mass exceeding 30 solar masses (M). They use an alternative and potentially more powerful statistical framework, hierarchical Bayesian inference, and infer IMF power-law indices for massive stars that are in agreement with our results (compare the IMF slope distributions in their figure 1 to the 1σ range inferred in our analysis).

Schneider et al. (Reports, 5 January 2018, p. 69) used an ad hoc statistical method in their calculation of the stellar initial mass function. Adopting an improved approach, we reanalyze their data and determine a power-law exponent of . Alternative assumptions regarding dataset completeness and the star formation history model can shift the inferred exponent to and, respectively. They estimate the ages and masses of individual stars with the BONNSAI Bayesian code (3), then obtain an overall mass distribution by effectively adding together the posterior probability density functions of individual stars. There is no statistical meaning to a distribution obtained in this way, which does not represent the posterior probability density function on the mass distribution. Hierarchical Bayesian inference provides the statistically justified solution to this problem (4).

We consider the problem of discovering the simplest latent variable that can make two observed discrete variables conditionally independent. This problem has appeared in the literature as probabilistic latent semantic analysis (pLSA), and has connections to non-negative matrix factorization. When the simplicity of the variable is measured through its cardinality, we show that a solution to this latent variable discovery problem can be used to distinguish direct causal relations from spurious correlations among almost all joint distributions on simple causal graphs with two observed variables. Conjecturing a similar identifiability result holds with Shannon entropy, we study a loss function that trades-off between entropy of the latent variable and the conditional mutual information of the observed variables. We then propose a latent variable discovery algorithm -- LatentSearch -- and show that its stationary points are the stationary points of our loss function. We experimentally show that LatentSearch can indeed be used to distinguish direct causal relations from spurious correlations.

Multi-Task Learning (MTL) is a learning paradigm in machine learning and its aim is to leverage useful information contained in multiple related tasks to help improve the generalization performance of all the tasks. In this paper, we give a survey for MTL. First, we classify different MTL algorithms into several categories, including feature learning approach, low-rank approach, task clustering approach, task relation learning approach, and decomposition approach, and then discuss the characteristics of each approach. In order to improve the performance of learning tasks further, MTL can be combined with other learning paradigms including semi-supervised learning, active learning, unsupervised learning, reinforcement learning, multi-view learning and graphical models. When the number of tasks is large or the data dimensionality is high, batch MTL models are difficult to handle this situation and online, parallel and distributed MTL models as well as dimensionality reduction and feature hashing are reviewed to reveal their computational and storage advantages. Many real-world applications use MTL to boost their performance and we review representative works. Finally, we present theoretical analyses and discuss several future directions for MTL.

We consider the exploration-exploitation trade-off in reinforcement learning and we show that an agent imbued with a risk-seeking utility function is able to explore efficiently, as measured by regret. The parameter that controls how risk-seeking the agent is can be optimized exactly, or annealed according to a schedule. We call the resulting algorithm K-learning and show that the corresponding K-values are optimistic for the expected Q-values at each state-action pair. The K-values induce a natural Boltzmann exploration policy for which the `temperature' parameter is equal to the risk-seeking parameter. This policy achieves an expected regret bound of $\tilde O(L^{3/2} \sqrt{S A T})$, where $L$ is the time horizon, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $T$ is the total number of elapsed time-steps. This bound is only a factor of $L$ larger than the established lower bound. K-learning can be interpreted as mirror descent in the policy space, and it is similar to other well-known methods in the literature, including Q-learning, soft-Q-learning, and maximum entropy policy gradient, and is closely related to optimism and count based exploration methods. K-learning is simple to implement, as it only requires adding a bonus to the reward at each state-action and then solving a Bellman equation. We conclude with a numerical example demonstrating that K-learning is competitive with other state-of-the-art algorithms in practice.

Contextual multi-armed bandit problems arise frequently in important industrial applications. Existing solutions model the context either linearly, which enables uncertainty driven (principled) exploration, or non-linearly, by using epsilon-greedy exploration policies. Here we present a deep learning framework for contextual multi-armed bandits that is both non-linear and enables principled exploration at the same time. We tackle the exploration vs. exploitation trade-off through Thompson sampling by exploiting the connection between inference time dropout and sampling from the posterior over the weights of a Bayesian neural network. In order to adjust the level of exploration automatically as more data is made available to the model, the dropout rate is learned rather than considered a hyperparameter. We demonstrate that our approach substantially reduces regret on two tasks (the UCI Mushroom task and the Casino Parity task) when compared to 1) non-contextual bandits, 2) epsilon-greedy deep contextual bandits, and 3) fixed dropout rate deep contextual bandits. Our approach is currently being applied to marketing optimization problems at HubSpot.