Last Thursday, Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona introduced the following amendment to the U.S. Department of Defense appropriations bill currently in Congress: None of the amounts appropriated or otherwise made available by this Act may be obligated or expended for the development of a beerbot or other robot bartender. This sounds like a joke, but it's not: Legislation prohibiting Department of Defense funding of robot bartenders is on its way to becoming law. The reason why Senator Flake wants this to become law is based, at best, on a misunderstanding of how basic robotics research works. At worst, it's a deliberate decision to misrepresent the research for political gain. In 2015, MIT researchers presented a paper at the Robotics: Science and Systems (RSS) conference on "Policy Search for Multi-Robot Coordination under Uncertainty" [PDF].

Recent work used importance sampling ideas for better variational bounds on likelihoods. We clarify the applicability of these ideas to pure probabilistic inference, by showing the resulting Importance Weighted Variational Inference (IWVI) technique is an instance of augmented variational inference, thus identifying the looseness in previous work. Experiments confirm IWVI's practicality for probabilistic inference. As a second contribution, we investigate inference with elliptical distributions, which improves accuracy in low dimensions, and convergence in high dimensions.

This letter is concerned with a recently developed paradigm of population-based optimization, termed particle filter optimization (PFO). In contrast with the commonly used meta-heuristics based methods, the PFO paradigm is attractive in terms of coherence in theory and easiness in mathematical analysis and interpretation. However, current PFO algorithms only work for single-objective optimization cases, while many real-life problems involve multiple objectives to be optimized simultaneously. To this end, we make an effort to extend the scope of application of the PFO paradigm to multi-objective optimization (MOO) cases. An idea called path sampling is adopted within the PFO scheme to balance the different objectives to be optimized. The resulting algorithm is thus termed PFO with Path Sampling (PFOPS). Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm works consistently well for three different types of MOO problems, which are characterized by an associated convex, concave and discontinuous Pareto front, respectively.

PROBABILITY was initially called and for a quite a long time the doctrine of chances and was the mathematical description of game of chance (dice, cards and so on) and used to describe and quantify randomness or aleatory of uncertainty. Statisticians use it to describe uncertainty. How can you use probability to describe learning? How can you use it to describe an accumulation of information overtime so yo can modify probability, based on additional knowledge? However, using Bayes theorem is a thing and being Bayesian is something else.

In this blog post, I am going to unfold some reasonably technical ideas pertinent most directly to the fourth point in the list: How to make meta-learning work in reality, in the context of a complex multi-algorithm cognitive architecture carrying out a variety of complicated tasks. Dr. Nil Geisweiller has recently written a research blog post describing his current work on "probabilistic inference meta-learning." In his research, he discusses using OpenCog's Probabilistic Logic Networks (PLN) framework as the base-level algorithm for meta-learning, via using pattern-mining and then PLN itself to learn patterns in large sets of PLN inference examples, to learn what sorts of inferences work better in what contexts. This gets at the crux of the meta-learning problem in an OpenCog context; it is about using PLN to help PLN learn how to reason better. This blog post is complementary to Dr. Nil's, in this post I am going to describe some work currently underway to, in effect, fuse various learning/reasoning algorithms now working separately within OpenCog so that they appear as aspects of a single unified learning/reasoning algorithm. This sort of unification provides greater elegance than a situation where there are multiple markedly distinct learning/reasoning algorithms.

Existing fuzzy neural networks (FNNs) are mostly developed under a shallow network configuration having lower generalization power than those of deep structures. This paper proposes a novel self-organizing deep fuzzy neural network, namely deep evolving fuzzy neural networks (DEVFNN). Fuzzy rules can be automatically extracted from data streams or removed if they play little role during their lifespan. The structure of the network can be deepened on demand by stacking additional layers using a drift detection method which not only detects the covariate drift, variations of input space, but also accurately identifies the real drift, dynamic changes of both feature space and target space. DEVFNN is developed under the stacked generalization principle via the feature augmentation concept where a recently developed algorithm, namely Generic Classifier (gClass), drives the hidden layer. It is equipped by an automatic feature selection method which controls activation and deactivation of input attributes to induce varying subsets of input features. A deep network simplification procedure is put forward using the concept of hidden layer merging to prevent uncontrollable growth of input space dimension due to the nature of feature augmentation approach in building a deep network structure. DEVFNN works in the sample-wise fashion and is compatible for data stream applications. The efficacy of DEVFNN has been thoroughly evaluated using six datasets with non-stationary properties under the prequential test-then-train protocol. It has been compared with four state-of the art data stream methods and its shallow counterpart where DEVFNN demonstrates improvement of classification accuracy.

As the issue of freshwater shortage is increasing daily, it is critical to take effective measures for water conservation. According to previous studies, device level consumption could lead to significant freshwater conservation. Existing water disaggregation methods focus on learning the signatures for appliances; however, they are lack of the mechanism to accurately discriminate parallel appliances' consumption. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian Discriminative Sparse Coding model using Laplace Prior (BDSC-LP) to extensively enhance the disaggregation performance. To derive discriminative basis functions, shape features are presented to describe the low-sampling-rate water consumption patterns. A Gibbs sampling based inference method is designed to extend the discriminative capability of the disaggregation dictionaries. Extensive experiments were performed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model using both real-world and synthetic datasets.

With the rising influence of machine learning algorithms on many important aspects of our daily lives, there are growing concerns that biases inherent in data can lead the behavior of these algorithms to discriminate against certain populations [1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 28, 29, 15]. In recent years, substantial research effort has been devoted to the development of mathematical definitions of bias, or its opposite, fairness, in algorithms and in data [15, 18, 26, 23, 19, 32]. In this work, we focus on the fairness scenario where there are multiple protected attributes that we aim to ensure fairness for, and which may potentially overlap with each other, such as gender, race, and sexual orientation. Our guiding principle is intersectionality, the core theoretical framework underlying the thirdwave feminist movement [13]. The principle of intersectionality states that racism, sexism, and other social systems which harm marginalized groups are interlocking in their effects, such that the lived experience of, e.g., black women, is very different than that of, e.g., white women. Intersectionality was defined by Kimberlé Crenshaw in the 1980's [13] and popularized in the 1990's, e.g. by Patricia Hill Collins [10], although the ideas are much older [11, 35]. In the context of machine learning and fairness, intersectionality was recently considered by [7], who studied the impact of the intersection of gender and skin color on computer vision performance, and by [23, 19], who aimed to protect certain subgroups in order to prevent "fairness gerrymandering."

In the context of dynamic emission tomography, the conventional processing pipeline consists of independent image reconstruction of single time frames, followed by the application of a suitable kinetic model to time activity curves (TACs) at the voxel or region-of-interest level. The relatively new field of 4D PET direct reconstruction, by contrast, seeks to move beyond this scheme and incorporate information from multiple time frames within the reconstruction task. Existing 4D direct models are based on a deterministic description of voxels' TACs, captured by the chosen kinetic model, considering the photon counting process the only source of uncertainty. In this work, we introduce a new probabilistic modeling strategy based on the key assumption that activity time course would be subject to uncertainty even if the parameters of the underlying dynamic process were known. This leads to a hierarchical Bayesian model, which we formulate using the formalism of Probabilistic Graphical Modeling (PGM). The inference of the joint probability density function arising from PGM is addressed using a new gradient-based iterative algorithm, which presents several advantages compared to existing direct methods: it is flexible to an arbitrary choice of linear and nonlinear kinetic model; it enables the inclusion of arbitrary (sub)differentiable priors for parametric maps; it is simpler to implement and suitable to integration in computing frameworks for machine learning. Computer simulations and an application to real patient scan showed how the proposed approach allows us to weight the importance of the kinetic model, providing a bridge between indirect and deterministic direct methods.

There are many models, often called unnormalized models, whose normalizing constants are not calculated in closed form. Maximum likelihood estimation is not directly applicable to unnormalized models. Score matching, contrastive divergence method, pseudo-likelihood, Monte Carlo maximum likelihood, and noise contrastive estimation (NCE) are popular methods for estimating parameters of such models. In this paper, we focus on NCE. The estimator derived from NCE is consistent and asymptotically normal because it is an M-estimator. NCE characteristically uses an auxiliary distribution to calculate the normalizing constant in the same spirit of the importance sampling. In addition, there are several candidates as objective functions of NCE. We focus on how to reduce asymptotic variance. First, we propose a method for reducing asymptotic variance by estimating the parameters of the auxiliary distribution. Then, we determine the form of the objective functions, where the asymptotic variance takes the smallest values in the original estimator class and the proposed estimator classes. We further analyze the robustness of the estimator.