The health state assessment and remaining useful life (RUL) estimation play very important roles in prognostics and health management (PHM), owing to their abilities to reduce the maintenance and improve the safety of machines or equipment. However, they generally suffer from this problem of lacking prior knowledge to pre-define the exact failure thresholds for a machinery operating in a dynamic environment with a high level of uncertainty. In this case, dynamic thresholds depicted by the discrete states is a very attractive way to estimate the RUL of a dynamic machinery. Currently, there are only very few works considering the dynamic thresholds, and these studies adopted different algorithms to determine the discrete states and predict the continuous states separately, which largely increases the complexity of the learning process. In this paper, we propose a novel prognostics approach for RUL estimation of aero-engines with self-joint prediction of continuous and discrete states, wherein the prediction of continuous and discrete states are conducted simultaneously and dynamically within one learning framework.

Sequence-to-Sequence models were introduced to tackle many real-life problems like machine translation, summarization, image captioning, etc. The standard optimization algorithms are mainly based on example-to-example matching like maximum likelihood estimation, which is known to suffer from data sparsity problem. Here we present an alternate view to explain sequence-to-sequence learning as a distribution matching problem, where each source or target example is viewed to represent a local latent distribution in the source or target domain. Then, we interpret sequence-to-sequence learning as learning a transductive model to transform the source local latent distributions to match their corresponding target distributions. In our framework, we approximate both the source and target latent distributions with recurrent neural networks (augmenter). During training, the parallel augmenters learn to better approximate the local latent distributions, while the sequence prediction model learns to minimize the KL-divergence of the transformed source distributions and the approximated target distributions. This algorithm can alleviate the data sparsity issues in sequence learning by locally augmenting more unseen data pairs and increasing the model's robustness. Experiments conducted on machine translation and image captioning consistently demonstrate the superiority of our proposed algorithm over the other competing algorithms.

We present a novel framework that enables efficient probabilistic inference in large-scale scientific models by allowing the execution of existing domain-specific simulators as probabilistic programs, resulting in highly interpretable posterior inference. Our framework is general purpose and scalable, and is based on a cross-platform probabilistic execution protocol through which an inference engine can control simulators in a language-agnostic way. We demonstrate the technique in particle physics, on a scientifically accurate simulation of the tau lepton decay, which is a key ingredient in establishing the properties of the Higgs boson. High-energy physics has a rich set of simulators based on quantum field theory and the interaction of particles in matter. We show how to use probabilistic programming to perform Bayesian inference in these existing simulator codebases directly, in particular conditioning on observable outputs from a simulated particle detector to directly produce an interpretable posterior distribution over decay pathways. Inference efficiency is achieved via inference compilation where a deep recurrent neural network is trained to parameterize proposal distributions and control the stochastic simulator in a sequential importance sampling scheme, at a fraction of the computational cost of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.

These representations are able to capture the variability of the demonstrations from a teacher as a probability distribution over trajectories, providing a sensible region of exploration and the ability to adapt to changes in the robot environment. However, to be able to capture variability and correlations between different joints, a probabilistic movement primitive requires the estimation of a larger number of parameters compared to their deterministic counterparts, that focus on modeling only the mean behavior. In this paper, we make use of prior distributions over the parameters of a probabilistic movement primitive to make robust estimates of the parameters with few training instances. In addition, we introduce general purpose operators to adapt movement primitives in joint and task space. The proposed training method and adaptation operators are tested in a coffee preparation and in robot table tennis task. In the coffee preparation task we evaluate the generalization performance to changes in the location of the coffee grinder and brewing chamber in a target area, achieving the desired behavior after only two demonstrations. In the table tennis task we evaluate the hit and return rates, outperforming previous approaches while using fewer task specific heuristics.

Hybrid Bayesian networks have received an increasing attention during the last years. The difference with respect to standard Bayesian networks is that they can host discrete and continuous variables simultaneously, which extends the applicability of the Bayesian network framework in general. However, this extra feature also comes at a cost: inference in these types of models is computationally more challenging and the underlying models and updating procedures may not even support closed-form solutions. In this paper we provide an overview of the main trends and principled approaches for performing inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The methods covered in the paper are organized and discussed according to their methodological basis. We consider how the methods have been extended and adapted to also include (hybrid) dynamic Bayesian networks, and we end with an overview of established software systems supporting inference in these types of models.

Last Thursday, Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona introduced the following amendment to the U.S. Department of Defense appropriations bill currently in Congress: None of the amounts appropriated or otherwise made available by this Act may be obligated or expended for the development of a beerbot or other robot bartender. This sounds like a joke, but it's not: Legislation prohibiting Department of Defense funding of robot bartenders is on its way to becoming law. The reason why Senator Flake wants this to become law is based, at best, on a misunderstanding of how basic robotics research works. At worst, it's a deliberate decision to misrepresent the research for political gain. In 2015, MIT researchers presented a paper at the Robotics: Science and Systems (RSS) conference on "Policy Search for Multi-Robot Coordination under Uncertainty" [PDF].

Recent work used importance sampling ideas for better variational bounds on likelihoods. We clarify the applicability of these ideas to pure probabilistic inference, by showing the resulting Importance Weighted Variational Inference (IWVI) technique is an instance of augmented variational inference, thus identifying the looseness in previous work. Experiments confirm IWVI's practicality for probabilistic inference. As a second contribution, we investigate inference with elliptical distributions, which improves accuracy in low dimensions, and convergence in high dimensions.

This letter is concerned with a recently developed paradigm of population-based optimization, termed particle filter optimization (PFO). In contrast with the commonly used meta-heuristics based methods, the PFO paradigm is attractive in terms of coherence in theory and easiness in mathematical analysis and interpretation. However, current PFO algorithms only work for single-objective optimization cases, while many real-life problems involve multiple objectives to be optimized simultaneously. To this end, we make an effort to extend the scope of application of the PFO paradigm to multi-objective optimization (MOO) cases. An idea called path sampling is adopted within the PFO scheme to balance the different objectives to be optimized. The resulting algorithm is thus termed PFO with Path Sampling (PFOPS). Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm works consistently well for three different types of MOO problems, which are characterized by an associated convex, concave and discontinuous Pareto front, respectively.

PROBABILITY was initially called and for a quite a long time the doctrine of chances and was the mathematical description of game of chance (dice, cards and so on) and used to describe and quantify randomness or aleatory of uncertainty. Statisticians use it to describe uncertainty. How can you use probability to describe learning? How can you use it to describe an accumulation of information overtime so yo can modify probability, based on additional knowledge? However, using Bayes theorem is a thing and being Bayesian is something else.

In this blog post, I am going to unfold some reasonably technical ideas pertinent most directly to the fourth point in the list: How to make meta-learning work in reality, in the context of a complex multi-algorithm cognitive architecture carrying out a variety of complicated tasks. Dr. Nil Geisweiller has recently written a research blog post describing his current work on "probabilistic inference meta-learning." In his research, he discusses using OpenCog's Probabilistic Logic Networks (PLN) framework as the base-level algorithm for meta-learning, via using pattern-mining and then PLN itself to learn patterns in large sets of PLN inference examples, to learn what sorts of inferences work better in what contexts. This gets at the crux of the meta-learning problem in an OpenCog context; it is about using PLN to help PLN learn how to reason better. This blog post is complementary to Dr. Nil's, in this post I am going to describe some work currently underway to, in effect, fuse various learning/reasoning algorithms now working separately within OpenCog so that they appear as aspects of a single unified learning/reasoning algorithm. This sort of unification provides greater elegance than a situation where there are multiple markedly distinct learning/reasoning algorithms.