Many scientifically well-motivated statistical models in natural, engineering and environmental sciences are specified through a generative process, but in some cases it may not be possible to write down a likelihood for these models analytically. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods, which allow Bayesian inference in these situations, are typically computationally intensive. Recently, computationally attractive empirical likelihood based ABC methods have been suggested in the literature. These methods heavily rely on the availability of a set of suitable analytically tractable estimating equations. We propose an easy-to-use empirical likelihood ABC method, where the only inputs required are a choice of summary statistic, it's observed value, and the ability to simulate summary statistics for any parameter value under the model. It is shown that the posterior obtained using the proposed method is consistent, and its performance is explored using various examples.

The Normalizing Flow (NF) models a general probability density by estimating an invertible transformation applied on samples drawn from a known distribution. We introduce a new type of NF, called Deep Diffeomorphic Normalizing Flow (DDNF). A diffeomorphic flow is an invertible function where both the function and its inverse are smooth. We construct the flow using an ordinary differential equation (ODE) governed by a time-varying smooth vector field. We use a neural network to parametrize the smooth vector field and a recursive neural network (RNN) for approximating the solution of the ODE. Each cell in the RNN is a residual network implementing one Euler integration step. The architecture of our flow enables efficient likelihood evaluation, straightforward flow inversion, and results in highly flexible density estimation. An end-to-end trained DDNF achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art methods on a suite of density estimation and variational inference tasks. Finally, our method brings concepts from Riemannian geometry that, we believe, can open a new research direction for neural density estimation.

We propose deep convolutional Gaussian processes, a deep Gaussian process architecture with convolutional structure. The model is a principled Bayesian framework for detecting hierarchical combinations of local features for image classification. We demonstrate greatly improved image classification performance compared to current Gaussian process approaches on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets. In particular, we improve CIFAR-10 accuracy by over 10 percentage points.

We present the first PAC optimal algorithm for Bayes-Adaptive Markov Decision Processes (BAMDPs) in continuous state and action spaces, to the best of our knowledge. The BAMDP framework elegantly addresses model uncertainty by incorporating Bayesian belief updates into long-term expected return. However, computing an exact optimal Bayesian policy is intractable. Our key insight is to compute a near-optimal value function by covering the continuous state-belief-action space with a finite set of representative samples and exploiting the Lipschitz continuity of the value function. We prove the near-optimality of our algorithm and analyze a number of schemes that boost the algorithm's efficiency. Finally, we empirically validate our approach on a number of discrete and continuous BAMDPs and show that the learned policy has consistently competitive performance against baseline approaches.

Ensemble learning is a statistical paradigm built on the premise that many weak learners can perform exceptionally well when deployed collectively. The BART method of Chipman et al. (2010) is a prominent example of Bayesian ensemble learning, where each learner is a tree. Due to its impressive performance, BART has received a lot of attention from practitioners. Despite its wide popularity, however, theoretical studies of BART have begun emerging only very recently. Laying the foundations for the theoretical analysis of Bayesian forests, Rockova and van der Pas (2017) showed optimal posterior concentration under conditionally uniform tree priors. These priors deviate from the actual priors implemented in BART. Here, we study the exact BART prior and propose a simple modification so that it also enjoys optimality properties. To this end, we dive into branching process theory. We obtain tail bounds for the distribution of total progeny under heterogeneous Galton-Watson (GW) processes exploiting their connection to random walks. We conclude with a result stating the optimal rate of posterior convergence for BART.

We describe a framework of hybrid cognition by formulating a hybrid cognitive agent that performs hierarchical active inference across a human and a machine part. We suggest that, in addition to enhancing human cognitive functions with an intelligent and adaptive interface, integrated cognitive processing could accelerate emergent properties within artificial intelligence. To establish this, a machine learning part learns to integrate into human cognition by explaining away multi-modal sensory measurements from the environment and physiology simultaneously with the brain signal. With ongoing training, the amount of predictable brain signal increases. This lends the agent the ability to self-supervise on increasingly high levels of cognitive processing in order to further minimize surprise in predicting the brain signal. Furthermore, with increasing level of integration, the access to sensory information about environment and physiology is substituted with access to their representation in the brain. While integrating into a joint embodiment of human and machine, human action and perception are treated as the machine's own. The framework can be implemented with invasive as well as non-invasive sensors for environment, body and brain interfacing. Online and offline training with different machine learning approaches are thinkable. Building on previous research on shared representation learning, we suggest a first implementation leading towards hybrid active inference with non-invasive brain interfacing and state of the art probabilistic deep learning methods. We further discuss how implementation might have effect on the meta-cognitive abilities of the described agent and suggest that with adequate implementation the machine part can continue to execute and build upon the learned cognitive processes autonomously.

Recent increases in computing power, coupled with rapid growth in the availability and quantity of data have rekindled our interest in the theory and applications of artificial intelligence (AI). However, for AI to be confidently rolled out by industries and governments, users want greater transparency through explainable AI (XAI) systems. The author introduces XAI concepts, and gives an overview of areas in need of further exploration--such as type-2 fuzzy logic systems--to ensure such systems can be fully understood and analyzed by the lay user.

This paper discusses predictive inference and feature selection for generalized linear models with scarce but high-dimensional data. We argue that in many cases one can benefit from a decision theoretically justified two-stage approach: first, construct a possibly non-sparse model that predicts well, and then find a minimal subset of features that characterize the predictions. The model built in the first step is referred to as the \emph{reference model} and the operation during the latter step as predictive \emph{projection}. The key characteristic of this approach is that it finds an excellent tradeoff between sparsity and predictive accuracy, and the gain comes from utilizing all available information including prior and that coming from the left out features. We review several methods that follow this principle and provide novel methodological contributions. We present a new projection technique that unifies two existing techniques and is both accurate and fast to compute. We also propose a way of evaluating the feature selection process using fast leave-one-out cross-validation that allows for easy and intuitive model size selection. Furthermore, we prove a theorem that helps to understand the conditions under which the projective approach could be beneficial. The benefits are illustrated via several simulated and real world examples.

Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible class of priors for nonparametric Bayesian regression, but popular GP posterior inference methods are typically prohibitively slow or lack desirable finite-data guarantees on quality. We develop an approach to scalable approximate GP regression with finite-data guarantees on the accuracy of pointwise posterior mean and variance estimates. Our main contribution is a novel objective for approximate inference in the nonparametric setting: the preconditioned Fisher (pF) divergence. We show that unlike the Kullback--Leibler divergence (used in variational inference), the pF divergence bounds the 2-Wasserstein distance, which in turn provides tight bounds the pointwise difference of the mean and variance functions. We demonstrate that, for sparse GP likelihood approximations, we can minimize the pF divergence efficiently. Our experiments show that optimizing the pF divergence has the same computational requirements as variational sparse GPs while providing comparable empirical performance--in addition to our novel finite-data quality guarantees.

We present a new method for uncertainty estimation and out-of-distribution detection in neural networks with softmax output. We extend softmax layer with an additional constant input. The corresponding additional output is able to represent the uncertainty of the network. The proposed method requires neither additional parameters nor multiple forward passes nor input preprocessing nor out-of-distribution datasets. We show that our method performs comparably to more computationally expensive methods and outperforms baselines on our experiments from image recognition and sentiment analysis domains. The applications of computational learning systems might cause intrusive effects if we assume that predictions are always as accurate as during the experimental phase. Examples include misclassified traffic signs (Evtimov et al., 2018) and an image tagger that classified two African Americans as gorillas (Curtis, 2015). This is often caused by overconfidence of models that has been observed in the case of deep neural networks (Guo et al., 2017). Such malfunctions can be prevented if we estimate correctly the uncertainty of the machine learning system.