Dropout regularization of deep neural networks has been a mysterious yet effective tool to prevent overfitting. Explanations for its success range from the prevention of "co-adapted" weights to it being a form of cheap Bayesian inference. We propose a novel framework for understanding multiplicative noise in neural networks, considering continuous distributions as well as Bernoulli (i.e. dropout). We show that multiplicative noise induces structured shrinkage priors on a network's weights. We derive the equivalence through reparametrization properties of scale mixtures and not via any approximation. Given the equivalence, we then show that dropout's usual Monte Carlo training objective approximates marginal MAP estimation. We analyze this MAP objective under strong shrinkage, showing the expanded parametrization (i.e. likelihood noise) is more stable than a hierarchical representation. Lastly, we derive analogous priors for ResNets, RNNs, and CNNs and reveal their equivalent implementation as noise.

We formulate stochastic gradient descent (SGD) as a Bayesian filtering problem. Inference in the Bayesian setting naturally gives rise to BRMSprop and BAdam: Bayesian variants of RMSprop and Adam. Remarkably, the Bayesian approach recovers many features of state-of-the-art adaptive SGD methods, including amoungst others root-mean-square normalization, Nesterov acceleration and AdamW. As such, the Bayesian approach provides one explanation for the empirical effectiveness of state-of-the-art adaptive SGD algorithms. Empirically comparing BRMSprop and BAdam with naive RMSprop and Adam on MNIST, we find that Bayesian methods have the potential to considerably reduce test loss and classification error.

Connection between the theory of aggregation functions and formal concept analysis is discussed and studied, thus filling a gap in the literature by building a bridge between these two theories, one of them living in the world of data fusion, the second one in the area of data mining. We show how Galois connections can be used to describe an important class of aggregation functions preserving suprema, and, by duality, to describe aggregation functions preserving infima. Our discovered method gives an elegant and complete description of these classes. Also possible applications of our results within certain biclustering fuzzy FCA-based methods are discussed.

Meta-learning, or learning to learn, is the science of systematically observing how different machine learning approaches perform on a wide range of learning tasks, and then learning from this experience, or meta-data, to learn new tasks much faster than otherwise possible. Not only does this dramatically speed up and improve the design of machine learning pipelines or neural architectures, it also allows us to replace hand-engineered algorithms with novel approaches learned in a data-driven way. In this chapter, we provide an overview of the state of the art in this fascinating and continuously evolving field.

We formulate probabilistic numerical approximations to solutions of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as problems in Gaussian process (GP) regression with non-linear measurement functions. This is achieved by defining the measurement sequence to consists of the observations of the difference between the derivative of the GP and the vector field evaluated at the GP---which are all identically zero at the solution of the ODE. When the GP has a state-space representation, the problem can be reduced to a Bayesian state estimation problem and all widely-used approximations to the Bayesian filtering and smoothing problems become applicable. Furthermore, all previous GP-based ODE solvers, which were formulated in terms of generating synthetic measurements of the vector field, come out as specific approximations. We derive novel solvers, both Gaussian and non-Gaussian, from the Bayesian state estimation problem posed in this paper and compare them with other probabilistic solvers in illustrative experiments.

Many scientifically well-motivated statistical models in natural, engineering and environmental sciences are specified through a generative process, but in some cases it may not be possible to write down a likelihood for these models analytically. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods, which allow Bayesian inference in these situations, are typically computationally intensive. Recently, computationally attractive empirical likelihood based ABC methods have been suggested in the literature. These methods heavily rely on the availability of a set of suitable analytically tractable estimating equations. We propose an easy-to-use empirical likelihood ABC method, where the only inputs required are a choice of summary statistic, it's observed value, and the ability to simulate summary statistics for any parameter value under the model. It is shown that the posterior obtained using the proposed method is consistent, and its performance is explored using various examples.

The Normalizing Flow (NF) models a general probability density by estimating an invertible transformation applied on samples drawn from a known distribution. We introduce a new type of NF, called Deep Diffeomorphic Normalizing Flow (DDNF). A diffeomorphic flow is an invertible function where both the function and its inverse are smooth. We construct the flow using an ordinary differential equation (ODE) governed by a time-varying smooth vector field. We use a neural network to parametrize the smooth vector field and a recursive neural network (RNN) for approximating the solution of the ODE. Each cell in the RNN is a residual network implementing one Euler integration step. The architecture of our flow enables efficient likelihood evaluation, straightforward flow inversion, and results in highly flexible density estimation. An end-to-end trained DDNF achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art methods on a suite of density estimation and variational inference tasks. Finally, our method brings concepts from Riemannian geometry that, we believe, can open a new research direction for neural density estimation.

We propose deep convolutional Gaussian processes, a deep Gaussian process architecture with convolutional structure. The model is a principled Bayesian framework for detecting hierarchical combinations of local features for image classification. We demonstrate greatly improved image classification performance compared to current Gaussian process approaches on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets. In particular, we improve CIFAR-10 accuracy by over 10 percentage points.

We present the first PAC optimal algorithm for Bayes-Adaptive Markov Decision Processes (BAMDPs) in continuous state and action spaces, to the best of our knowledge. The BAMDP framework elegantly addresses model uncertainty by incorporating Bayesian belief updates into long-term expected return. However, computing an exact optimal Bayesian policy is intractable. Our key insight is to compute a near-optimal value function by covering the continuous state-belief-action space with a finite set of representative samples and exploiting the Lipschitz continuity of the value function. We prove the near-optimality of our algorithm and analyze a number of schemes that boost the algorithm's efficiency. Finally, we empirically validate our approach on a number of discrete and continuous BAMDPs and show that the learned policy has consistently competitive performance against baseline approaches.

Ensemble learning is a statistical paradigm built on the premise that many weak learners can perform exceptionally well when deployed collectively. The BART method of Chipman et al. (2010) is a prominent example of Bayesian ensemble learning, where each learner is a tree. Due to its impressive performance, BART has received a lot of attention from practitioners. Despite its wide popularity, however, theoretical studies of BART have begun emerging only very recently. Laying the foundations for the theoretical analysis of Bayesian forests, Rockova and van der Pas (2017) showed optimal posterior concentration under conditionally uniform tree priors. These priors deviate from the actual priors implemented in BART. Here, we study the exact BART prior and propose a simple modification so that it also enjoys optimality properties. To this end, we dive into branching process theory. We obtain tail bounds for the distribution of total progeny under heterogeneous Galton-Watson (GW) processes exploiting their connection to random walks. We conclude with a result stating the optimal rate of posterior convergence for BART.