Parameter learning is the technique for obtaining the probabilistic parameters in conditional probability tables in Bayesian networks from tables with (observed) data --- where it is assumed that the underlying graphical structure is known. There are basically two ways of doing so, referred to as maximal likelihood estimation (MLE) and as Bayesian learning. This paper provides a categorical analysis of these two techniques and describes them in terms of basic properties of the multiset monad M, the distribution monad D and the Giry monad G. In essence, learning is about the reltionships between multisets (used for counting) on the one hand and probability distributions on the other. These relationsips will be described as suitable natural transformations.

Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to the gradient or a large number of likelihood evaluations. We introduce here a novel sample-efficient inference framework, Variational Bayesian Monte Carlo (VBMC). VBMC combines variational inference with Gaussian-process based, active-sampling Bayesian quadrature, using the latter to efficiently approximate the intractable integral in the variational objective. Our method produces both a nonparametric approximation of the posterior distribution and an approximate lower bound of the model evidence, useful for model selection. We demonstrate VBMC both on several synthetic likelihoods and on a neuronal model with data from real neurons. Across all tested problems and dimensions (up to $D = 10$), VBMC performs consistently well in reconstructing the posterior and the model evidence with a limited budget of likelihood evaluations, unlike other methods that work only in very low dimensions. Our framework shows great promise as a novel tool for posterior and model inference with expensive, black-box likelihoods.

In this paper, we develop a non-parametric Bayesian estimation of Hawkes process kernel functions. Our method is based on the cluster representation of Hawkes processes. We sample random branching structures, and thus split the Hawkes process into clusters of Poisson processes, where the intensity function of each of these processes is the nonparametric triggering kernel of the Hawkes process. We derive both a block Gibbs sampler and a maximum a posteriori estimator based on stochastic expectation maximization. On synthetic data, we show our method to be flexible and scalable, and on two largescale Twitter diffusion datasets, we show our method to outperform the parametric Hawkes model. We observe that the learned non-parametric kernel reflects the longevity of different content types. Code has been made publicly available.

Making decisions requires information relevant to the task at hand. Many real-life decision-making situations allow acquiring further relevant information at a specific cost. For example, in assessing the health status of a patient we may decide to take additional measurements such as diagnostic tests or imaging scans before making a final assessment. More information that is relevant allows for better decisions but it may be costly to acquire all of this information. How can we trade off the desire to make good decisions with the option to acquire further information at a cost? To this end, we propose a principled framework, named EDDI (Efficient Dynamic Discovery of high-value Information), based on the theory of Bayesian experimental design. In EDDI we propose a novel partial variational autoencoder (Partial VAE), to efficiently handle missing data over varying subsets of known information. EDDI combines this Partial VAE with an acquisition function that maximizes expected information gain on a set of target variables. EDDI is efficient and demonstrates that dynamic discovery of high-value information is possible; we show cost reduction at the same decision quality and improved decision quality at the same cost in benchmarks and in two health-care applications. We believe there is great potential for realizing these gains in real-world decision support systems.

Most of agents that learn policy for tasks with reinforcement learning (RL) lack the ability to communicate with people, which makes human-agent collaboration challenging. We believe that, in order for RL agents to comprehend utterances from human colleagues, RL agents must infer the mental states that people attribute to them because people sometimes infer an interlocutor's mental states and communicate on the basis of this mental inference. This paper proposes PublicSelf model, which is a model of a person who infers how the person's own behavior appears to their colleagues. We implemented the PublicSelf model for an RL agent in a simulated environment and examined the inference of the model by comparing it with people's judgment. The results showed that the agent's intention that people attributed to the agent's movement was correctly inferred by the model in scenes where people could find certain intentionality from the agent's behavior.

We investigate deep Bayesian neural networks with Gaussian priors on the weights and ReLU-like nonlinearities, shedding light on novel sparsity-inducing mechanisms at the level of the units of the network, both pre- and post-nonlinearities. The main thrust of the paper is to establish that the units prior distribution becomes increasingly heavy-tailed with depth. We show that first layer units are Gaussian, second layer units are sub-Exponential, and we introduce sub-Weibull distributions to characterize the deeper layers units. Bayesian neural networks with Gaussian priors are well known to induce the weight decay penalty on the weights. In contrast, our result indicates a more elaborate regularisation scheme at the level of the units, ranging from convex penalties for the first two layers - weight decay for the first and Lasso for the second - to non convex penalties for deeper layers. Thus, despite weight decay does not allow for the weights to be set exactly to zero, sparse solutions tend to be selected for the units from the second layer onward. This result provides new theoretical insight on deep Bayesian neural networks, underpinning their natural shrinkage properties and practical potential.

We propose PANDA, an AdaPtive Noise Augmentation technique to regularize estimating and constructing undirected graphical models (UGMs). PANDA iteratively solves MLEs given noise augmented data in the regression-based framework until convergence to achieve the designed regularization effects. The augmented noises can be designed to achieve various regularization effects on graph estimation, including the bridge, elastic net, adaptive lasso, and SCAD penalization; it can also offer group lasso and fused ridge when some nodes belong to the same group. We establish theoretically that the noise-augmented loss functions and its minimizer converge almost surely to the expected penalized loss function and its minimizer, respectively. We derive the asymptotic distributions for the regularized regression coefficients through PANDA in GLMs, based on which, the inferences for the parameters can be obtained simultaneously with variable selection. Our empirical results suggest the inferences achieve nominal or near-nominal coverage and are far more efficient compared to some existing post-selection procedures. On the algorithm level, PANDA can be easily programmed in any standard software without resorting to complicated optimization techniques. We show the non-inferior performance of PANDA in constructing graphs of different types in simulation studies and also apply PANDA to the autism spectrum disorder data to construct a mixed-node graph.

The Viterbi process is the limiting maximum a-posteriori estimate of the unobserved path in a hidden Markov model as the length of the time horizon grows. The existence of such a process suggests that approximate estimation using optimization algorithms which process data segments in parallel may be accurate. For models on state-space $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ satisfying a new "decay-convexity" condition, we approach the existence of the Viterbi process through fixed points of ordinary differential equations in a certain infinite dimensional Hilbert space. Quantitative bounds on the distance to the Viterbi process show that approximate estimation via parallelization can indeed be accurate and scaleable to high-dimensional problems because the rate of convergence to the Viterbi process does not necessarily depend on $d$.

Learning robot objective functions from human input has become increasingly important, but state-of-the-art techniques assume that the human's desired objective lies within the robot's hypothesis space. When this is not true, even methods that keep track of uncertainty over the objective fail because they reason about which hypothesis might be correct, and not whether any of the hypotheses are correct. We focus specifically on learning from physical human corrections during the robot's task execution, where not having a rich enough hypothesis space leads to the robot updating its objective in ways that the person did not actually intend. We observe that such corrections appear irrelevant to the robot, because they are not the best way of achieving any of the candidate objectives. Instead of naively trusting and learning from every human interaction, we propose robots learn conservatively by reasoning in real time about how relevant the human's correction is for the robot's hypothesis space. We test our inference method in an experiment with human interaction data, and demonstrate that this alleviates unintended learning in an in-person user study with a 7DoF robot manipulator.

Abstract-- Feature Selection (FS) plays an important role in learning and classification tasks. The object of FS is to select the relevant and non-redundant features. Considering the huge amount number of features in real-world applications, FS methods using batch learning technique can't resolve big data problem especially when data arrive sequentially. In this paper, we propose an online feature selection system which resolves this problem. More specifically, we treat the problem of online supervised feature selection for binary classification as a decision-making problem. A philosophical vision to this problem leads to a hybridization between two important domains: feature selection using online learning technique (OFS) and automated negotiation (AN). The proposed OFS system called MOANOFS (Multi-Objective Automated Negotiation based Online Feature Selection) uses two levels of decision. In the first level, from n learners (or OFS methods), we decide which are the k trustful ones (with high confidence or trust value). These elected k learners will participate in the second level. In this level, we integrate our proposed Multilateral Automated Negotiation based OFS (MANOFS) method to decide finally which is the best solution or which are relevant features. We show that MOANOFS system is applicable to different domains successfully and achieves high accuracy with several real-world applications. Index Terms-- Feature selection, online learning, multi-objective automated negotiation, trust, classification, big data. URING the last three decades, Feature Selection (FS) has been extensively studied in Data Mining [1], [2], Pattern Classification [3], [4] and Machine Learning [5], [6]. FS is defined as the process of selecting a subset of relevant features and removing the redundant ones from a dataset for building effective prediction models. In recent years, an enormous increase in data (news, medical imaging) has been observed which allows an increase in redundant information. Even worse, the redundancy of irrelevant data has a negative impact on the performance of classification methods associated. With the rapid development of the Internet, current tremendous amounts of data up to millions or billions, can be collected for training machine learning models.