Reconstructing the position of an interaction for any dual-phase time projection chamber (TPC) with the best precision is key to directly detect Dark Matter. Using the likelihood-free framework, a new algorithm to reconstruct the 2-D (x; y) position and the size of the charge signal (e) of an interaction is presented. The algorithm uses the charge signal (S2) light distribution obtained by simulating events using a waveform generator. To deal with the computational effort required by the likelihood-free approach, we employ the Bayesian Optimization for Likelihood-Free Inference (BOLFI) algorithm. Together with BOLFI, prior distributions for the parameters of interest (x; y; e) and highly informative discrepancy measures to perform the analyses are introduced. We evaluate the quality of the proposed algorithm by a comparison against the currently existing alternative methods using a large-scale simulation study. BOLFI provides a natural probabilistic uncertainty measure for the reconstruction and it improved the accuracy of the reconstruction over the next best algorithm by up to 15% when focusing on events over a large radii (R > 30 cm). In addition, BOLFI provides the smallest uncertainties among all the tested methods.

Bayesian experimental design involves the optimal allocation of resources in an experiment, with the aim of optimising cost and performance. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling from the model is possible, this task is particularly difficult and therefore largely unexplored. This is mainly due to technical difficulties associated with approximating posterior distributions and utility functions. We devise a novel experimental design framework for implicit models that improves upon previous work in two ways. First, we use the mutual information between parameters and data as the utility function, which has previously not been feasible. We achieve this by utilising Likelihood-Free Inference by Ratio Estimation (LFIRE) to approximate posterior distributions, instead of the traditional approximate Bayesian computation or synthetic likelihood methods. Secondly, we use Bayesian optimisation in order to solve the optimal design problem, as opposed to the typically used grid search. We find that this increases efficiency and allows us to consider higher design dimensions.

Parametric statistical models that are implicitly defined in terms of a stochastic data generating process are used in a wide range of scientific disciplines because they enable accurate modeling. However, learning the parameters from observed data is generally very difficult because their likelihood function is typically intractable. Likelihood-free Bayesian inference methods have been proposed which include the frameworks of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), synthetic likelihood, and its recent generalization that performs likelihood-free inference by ratio estimation (LFIRE). A major difficulty in all these methods is choosing summary statistics that reduce the dimensionality of the data to facilitate inference. While several methods for choosing summary statistics have been proposed for ABC, the literature for synthetic likelihood and LFIRE is very thin to date. We here address this gap in the literature, focusing on the important special case of time-series models. We show that convolutional neural networks trained to predict the input parameters from the data provide suitable summary statistics for LFIRE. On a wide range of time-series models, a single neural network architecture produced equally or more accurate posteriors than alternative methods.

Existing guarantees in terms of rigorous upper bounds on the generalization error for the original random forest algorithm, one of the most frequently used machine learning methods, are unsatisfying. We discuss and evaluate various PAC-Bayesian approaches to derive such bounds. The bounds do not require additional hold-out data, because the out-of-bag samples from the bagging in the training process can be exploited. A random forest predicts by taking a majority vote of an ensemble of decision trees. The first approach is to bound the error of the vote by twice the error of the corresponding Gibbs classifier (classifying with a single member of the ensemble selected at random). However, this approach does not take into account the effect of averaging out of errors of individual classifiers when taking the majority vote. This effect provides a significant boost in performance when the errors are independent or negatively correlated, but when the correlations are strong the advantage from taking the majority vote is small. The second approach based on PAC-Bayesian C-bounds takes dependencies between ensemble members into account, but it requires estimating correlations between the errors of the individual classifiers. When the correlations are high or the estimation is poor, the bounds degrade. In our experiments, we compute generalization bounds for random forests on various benchmark data sets. Because the individual decision trees already perform well, their predictions are highly correlated and the C-bounds do not lead to satisfactory results. For the same reason, the bounds based on the analysis of Gibbs classifiers are typically superior and often reasonably tight. Bounds based on a validation set coming at the cost of a smaller training set gave better performance guarantees, but worse performance in most experiments.

Neuromorphic hardware platforms, such as Intel's Loihi chip, support the implementation of Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) as an energy-efficient alternative to Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). SNNs are networks of neurons with internal analogue dynamics that communicate by means of binary time series. In this work, a probabilistic model is introduced for a generalized set-up in which the synaptic time series can take values in an arbitrary alphabet and are characterized by both causal and instantaneous statistical dependencies. The model, which can be considered as an extension of exponential family harmoniums to time series, is introduced by means of a hybrid directed-undirected graphical representation. Furthermore, distributed learning rules are derived for Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian criteria under the assumption of fully observed time series in the training set.

State space models (SSMs) are a flexible approach to modeling complex time series. However, inference in SSMs is often computationally prohibitive for long time series. Stochastic gradient MCMC (SGMCMC) is a popular method for scalable Bayesian inference for large independent data. Unfortunately when applied to dependent data, such as in SSMs, SGMCMC's stochastic gradient estimates are biased as they break crucial temporal dependencies. To alleviate this, we propose stochastic gradient estimators that control this bias by performing additional computation in a `buffer' to reduce breaking dependencies. Furthermore, we derive error bounds for this bias and show a geometric decay under mild conditions. Using these estimators, we develop novel SGMCMC samplers for discrete, continuous and mixed-type SSMs. Our experiments on real and synthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of our SGMCMC algorithms compared to batch MCMC, allowing us to scale inference to long time series with millions of time points.

A Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) [1-3] is a widely used family of graphical model for representing and reasoning within dynamic systems whose progress is recorded over a discrete time intervals [4-10]. However, in some context a DBN model is not able to represent all structural information of the target process [11]. This is particularly the case when the process is more naturally described by concatenations of unfolding events rather than by a product space of preassigned set of random variables. In other situations, a relevant statement corresponding to a conditioned variable cannot be directly incorporated into a DBN model using directed edges because it is valid only for a certain combinations of values assumed by the conditioning variables. In the literature, this type of statements is sometimes referred to context-specific information [12, 13]. To circumvent these issues, collections of networks and embellishments in the form of trees have been added to the DBN framework and computationally implemented using the object-oriented programming paradigm [14]: for instance, see the developments on context-specific BNs [11, 13, 15], Bayesian Multinet [16], Similarity Networks [17] and Object-Oriented BNs [18, 19].

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many applications. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to the large number of parameters and data. Ensembling NNs provides a practical and scalable method for uncertainty quantification. Its drawback is that its justification is heuristic rather than Bayesian. In this work we propose one modification to the usual ensembling process, that does result in Bayesian behaviour: regularising parameters about values drawn from a prior distribution. Hence, we present an easily implementable, scalable technique for performing approximate Bayesian inference in NNs.

Implicit probabilistic models are models defined naturally in terms of a sampling procedure and often induces a likelihood function that cannot be expressed explicitly. We develop a simple method for estimating parameters in implicit models that does not require knowledge of the form of the likelihood function or any derived quantities, but can be shown to be equivalent to maximizing likelihood under some conditions. Our result holds in the non-asymptotic parametric setting, where both the capacity of the model and the number of data examples are finite. We also demonstrate encouraging experimental results.

In this chapter we discuss soft concept analysis, a study which identifies an enriched notion of "conceptual scale" as developed in formal concept analysis with an enriched notion of "linguistic variable" as discussed in fuzzy logic. The identification "enriched conceptual scale" = "enriched linguistic variable" was made in a previous paper (Enriched interpretation, Robert E. Kent). In this chapter we offer further arguments for the importance of this identification by discussing the philosophy, spirit, and practical application of conceptual scaling to the discovery, conceptual analysis, interpretation, and categorization of networked information resources. We argue that a linguistic variable, which has been defined at just the right generalization of valuated categories, provides a natural definition for the process of soft conceptual scaling. This enrichment using valuated categories models the relation of indiscernability, a notion of central importance in rough set theory. At a more fundamental level for soft concept analysis, it also models the derivation of formal concepts, a process of central importance in formal concept analysis. Soft concept analysis is synonymous with enriched concept analysis. From one viewpoint, the study of soft concept analysis that is initiated here extends formal concept analysis to soft computational structures. From another viewpoint, soft concept analysis provides a natural foundation for soft computation by unifying and explaining notions from soft computation in terms of suitably generalized notions from formal concept analysis, rough set theory and fuzzy set theory.