The digital telecommunications receiver is an important context for inference methodology, the key objective being to minimize the expected loss function in recovering the transmitted information. For that criterion, the optimal decision is the Bayesian minimum-risk estimator. However, the computational load of the Bayesian estimator is often prohibitive and, hence, efficient computational schemes are required. The design of novel schemes, striking new balances between accuracy and computational load, is the primary concern of this thesis. Two popular techniques, one exact and one approximate, will be studied. The exact scheme is a recursive one, namely the generalized distributive law (GDL), whose purpose is to distribute all operators across the conditionally independent (CI) factors of the joint model, so as to reduce the total number of operators required. In a novel theorem derived in this thesis, GDL, if applicable, will be shown to guarantee such a reduction in all cases. An associated lemma also quantifies this reduction. For practical use, two novel algorithms, namely the no-longer-needed (NLN) algorithm and the generalized form of the Markovian Forward-Backward (FB) algorithm, recursively factorizes and computes the CI factors of an arbitrary model, respectively. The approximate scheme is an iterative one, namely the Variational Bayes (VB) approximation, whose purpose is to find the independent (i.e. zero-order Markov) model closest to the true joint model in the minimum Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) sense. Despite being computationally efficient, this naive mean field approximation confers only modest performance for highly correlated models. A novel approximation, namely Transformed Variational Bayes (TVB), will be designed in the thesis in order to relax the zero-order constraint in the VB approximation, further reducing the KLD of the optimal approximation.

Extracting common narratives from multi-author dynamic text corpora requires complex models, such as the Dynamic Author Persona (DAP) topic model. However, such models are complex and can struggle to scale to large corpora, often because of challenging non-conjugate terms. To overcome such challenges, in this paper we adapt new ideas in approximate inference to the DAP model, resulting in the DAP Performed Exceedingly Rapidly (DAPPER) topic model. Specifically, we develop Conjugate-Computation Variational Inference (CVI) based variational Expectation-Maximization (EM) for learning the model, yielding fast, closed form updates for each document, replacing iterative optimization in earlier work. Our results show significant improvements in model fit and training time without needing to compromise the model's temporal structure or the application of Regularized Variation Inference (RVI). We demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of the DAPPER model by extracting health journeys from the CaringBridge corpus --- a collection of 9 million journals written by 200,000 authors during health crises.

Heteroscedastic regression which considers varying noises across input domain has many applications in fields like machine learning and statistics. Here we focus on the heteroscedastic Gaussian process (HGP) regression which integrates the latent function and the noise together in a unified non-parametric Bayesian framework. Though showing flexible and powerful performance, HGP suffers from the cubic time complexity, which strictly limits its application to big data. To improve the scalability of HGP, we first develop a variational sparse inference algorithm, named VSHGP, to handle large-scale datasets. Furthermore, to enhance the model capability of capturing quick-varying features, we follow the Bayesian committee machine (BCM) formalism to distribute the learning over multiple local VSHGP experts with many inducing points, and aggregate their predictive distributions. The proposed distributed VSHGP (DVSHGP) (i) enables large-scale HGP regression via distributed computations, and (ii) achieves high model capability via localized experts and many inducing points. Superiority of the proposed DVSHGP as compared to existing large-scale heteroscedastic/homoscedastic GPs is then verified using a synthetic dataset and three real-world datasets.

As a non-parametric Bayesian model which produces informative predictive distribution, Gaussian process (GP) has been widely used in various fields, like regression, classification and optimization. The cubic complexity of standard GP however leads to poor scalability, which poses challenges in the era of big data. Hence, various scalable GPs have been developed in the literature in order to improve the scalability while retaining desirable prediction accuracy. This paper devotes to investigating the methodological characteristics and performance of representative global and local scalable GPs including sparse approximations and local aggregations from four main perspectives: scalability, capability, controllability and robustness. The numerical experiments on two toy examples and five real-world datasets with up to 250K points offer the following findings. In terms of scalability, most of the scalable GPs own a time complexity that is linear to the training size. In terms of capability, the sparse approximations capture the long-term spatial correlations, the local aggregations capture the local patterns but suffer from over-fitting in some scenarios. In terms of controllability, we could improve the performance of sparse approximations by simply increasing the inducing size. But this is not the case for local aggregations. In terms of robustness, local aggregations are robust to various initializations of hyperparameters due to the local attention mechanism. Finally, we highlight that the proper hybrid of global and local scalable GPs may be a promising way to improve both the model capability and scalability for big data.

Logit models are usually applied when studying individual travel behavior, i.e., to predict travel mode choice and to gain behavioral insights on traveler preferences. Recently, some studies have applied machine learning to model travel mode choice and reported higher out-of-sample prediction accuracy than conventional logit models (e.g., multinomial logit). However, there has not been a comprehensive comparison between logit models and machine learning that covers both prediction and behavioral analysis. This paper aims at addressing this gap by examining the key differences in model development, evaluation, and behavioral interpretation between logit and machine-learning models for travel-mode choice modeling. To complement the theoretical discussions, we also empirically evaluated the two approaches on stated-preference survey data for a new type of transit system integrating high-frequency fixed routes and micro-transit. The results show that machine learning can produce significantly higher predictive accuracy than logit models and are better at capturing the nonlinear relationships between trip attributes and mode-choice outcomes. On the other hand, compared to the multinomial logit model, the best-performing machine-learning model, the random forest model, produces less reasonable behavioral outputs (i.e. marginal effects and elasticities) when they were computed from a standard approach. By introducing some behavioral constraints into the computation of behavioral outputs from a random forest model, however, we obtained better results that are somewhat comparable with the multinomial logit model. We believe that there is great potential in merging ideas from machine learning and conventional statistical methods to develop refined models for travel-behavior research and suggest some possible research directions.

Stan is a probabilistic programming language that has been increasingly used for real-world scalable projects. However, to make practical inference possible, the language sacrifices some of its usability by adopting a block syntax, which lacks compositionality and flexible user-defined functions. Moreover, the semantics of the language has been mainly given in terms of intuition about implementation, and has not been formalised. This paper provides a formal treatment of the Stan language, and introduces the probabilistic programming language SlicStan --- a compositional, self-optimising version of Stan. Our main contributions are: (1) the formalisation of a core subset of Stan through an operational density-based semantics; (2) the design and semantics of the Stan-like language SlicStan, which facilities better code reuse and abstraction through its compositional syntax, more flexible functions, and information-flow type system; and (3) a formal, semantic-preserving procedure for translating SlicStan to Stan.

Such information includes: the database in modern hospital systems, usually known as Electronic Health Records (EHR), which store the patients' diagnosis, medication, laboratory test results, medical image data, etc.; information on various health behaviors tracked and stored by wearable devices, ubiquitous sensors and mobile applications, such as the smoking status, alcoholism history, exercise level, sleeping conditions, etc.; information collected by census or various surveys regarding sociodemographic factors of the target cohort; and information on people's mental health inferred from their social media activities or social networks such as Twitter, Facebook, etc. These health-related data come from heterogeneous sources, describe assorted aspects of the individual's health conditions. Such data is rich in structure and information which has great research potentials for revealing unknown medical knowledge about genomic epidemiology, disease developments and correlations, drug discoveries, medical diagnosis, mental illness prevention, health behavior adaption, etc. In real-world problems, the number of features relating to a certain health condition could grow exponentially with the development of new information techniques for collecting and measuring data. To reveal the causal influence between various factors and a certain disease or to discover the correlations among diseases from data at such a tremendous scale, requires the assistance of advanced information technology such as data mining, machine learning, text mining, etc. Machine learning technology not only provides a way for learning qualitative relationships among features and patients, but also the quantitative parameters regarding the strength of such correlations.

Identification of patterns from discrete data time-series for statistical inference, threat detection, social opinion dynamics, brain activity prediction has received recent momentum. In addition to the huge data size, the associated challenges are, for example, (i) missing data to construct a closed time-varying complex network, and (ii) contribution of unknown sources which are not probed. Towards this end, the current work focuses on statistical neuron system model with multi-covariates and unknown inputs. Previous research of neuron activity analysis is mainly limited with effects from the spiking history of target neuron and the interaction with other neurons in the system while ignoring the influence of unknown stimuli. We propose to use unknown unknowns, which describes the effect of unknown stimuli, undetected neuron activities and all other hidden sources of error. The maximum likelihood estimation with the fixed-point iteration method is implemented. The fixed-point iterations converge fast, and the proposed methods can be efficiently parallelized and offer computational advantage especially when the input spiking trains are over long time-horizon. The developed framework provides an intuition into the meaning of having extra degrees-of-freedom in the data to support the need for unknowns. The proposed algorithm is applied to simulated spike trains and on real-world experimental data of mouse somatosensory, mouse retina and cat retina. The model shows a successful increasing of system likelihood with respect to the conditional intensity function, and it also reveals the convergence with iterations. Results suggest that the neural connection model with unknown unknowns can efficiently estimate the statistical properties of the process by increasing the network likelihood.

We study the Automatic Relevance Determination procedure applied to deep neural networks. We show that ARD applied to Bayesian DNNs with Gaussian approximate posterior distributions leads to a variational bound similar to that of variational dropout, and in the case of a fixed dropout rate, objectives are exactly the same. Experimental results show that the two approaches yield comparable results in practice even when the dropout rates are trained. This leads to an alternative Bayesian interpretation of dropout and mitigates some of the theoretical issues that arise with the use of improper priors in the variational dropout model. Additionally, we explore the use of the hierarchical priors in ARD and show that it helps achieve higher sparsity for the same accuracy.

Electronic health records (EHR) are rich heterogeneous collection of patient health information, whose broad adoption provides great opportunities for systematic health data mining. However, heterogeneous EHR data types and biased ascertainment impose computational challenges. Here, we present mixEHR, an unsupervised generative model integrating collaborative filtering and latent topic models, which jointly models the discrete distributions of data observation bias and actual data using latent disease-topic distributions. We apply mixEHR on 12.8 million phenotypic observations from the MIMIC dataset, and use it to reveal latent disease topics, interpret EHR results, impute missing data, and predict mortality in intensive care units. Using both simulation and real data, we show that mixEHR outperforms previous methods and reveals meaningful multi-disease insights.