We describe algorithms for use by prediction markets in forming a crowd consensus joint probability distribution over thousands of related events. Equivalently, we describe market mechanisms to efficiently crowdsource both structure and parameters of a Bayesian network. Prediction markets are among the most accurate methods to combine forecasts; forecasters form a consensus probability distribution by trading contingent securities. A combinatorial prediction market forms a consensus joint distribution over many related events by allowing conditional trades or trades on Boolean combinations of events. Explicitly representing the joint distribution is infeasible, but standard inference algorithms for graphical probability models render it tractable for large numbers of base events. We show how to adapt these algorithms to compute expected assets conditional on a prospective trade, and to find the conditional state where a trader has minimum assets, allowing full asset reuse. We compare the performance of three algorithms: the straightforward algorithm from the DAGGRE (Decomposition-Based Aggregation) prediction market for geopolitical events, the simple block-merge model from the SciCast market for science and technology forecasting, and a more sophisticated algorithm we developed for future markets.

This paper addresses the mapping problem. Using a conjugate prior form, we derive the exact theoretical batch multi-object posterior density of the map given a set of measurements. The landmarks in the map are modeled as extended objects, and the measurements are described as a Poisson process, conditioned on the map. We use a Poisson process prior on the map and prove that the posterior distribution is a hybrid Poisson, multi-Bernoulli mixture distribution. We devise a Gibbs sampling algorithm to sample from the batch multi-object posterior. The proposed method can handle uncertainties in the data associations and the cardinality of the set of landmarks, and is parallelizable, making it suitable for large-scale problems. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated on synthetic data and is shown to outperform a state-of-the-art method.

Conditional kernel mean embeddings are nonparametric models that encode conditional expectations in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. While they provide a flexible and powerful framework for probabilistic inference, their performance is highly dependent on the choice of kernel and regularization hyperparameters. Nevertheless, current hyperparameter tuning methods predominantly rely on expensive cross validation or heuristics that is not optimized for the inference task. For conditional kernel mean embeddings with categorical targets and arbitrary inputs, we propose a hyperparameter learning framework based on Rademacher complexity bounds to prevent overfitting by balancing data fit against model complexity. Our approach only requires batch updates, allowing scalable kernel hyperparameter tuning without invoking kernel approximations. Experiments demonstrate that our learning framework outperforms competing methods, and can be further extended to incorporate and learn deep neural network weights to improve generalization.

An intelligent agent performs actions in order to achieve its goals. Such actions can either be externally directed, such as opening a door, or internally directed, such as writing data to a memory location or strengthening a synaptic connection. Some internal actions, to which we refer as computations, potentially help the agent choose better actions. Considering that (external) actions and computations might draw upon the same resources, such as time and energy, deciding when to act or compute, as well as what to compute, are detrimental to the performance of an agent. In an environment that provides rewards depending on an agent's behavior, an action's value is typically defined as the sum of expected long-term rewards succeeding the action (itself a complex quantity that depends on what the agent goes on to do after the action in question). However, defining the value of a computation is not as straightforward, as computations are only valuable in a higher order way, through the alteration of actions. This thesis offers a principled way of computing the value of a computation in a planning setting formalized as a Markov decision process. We present two different definitions of computation values: static and dynamic. They address two extreme cases of the computation budget: affording calculation of zero or infinitely many steps in the future. We show that these values have desirable properties, such as temporal consistency and asymptotic convergence. Furthermore, we propose methods for efficiently computing and approximating the static and dynamic computation values. We describe a sense in which the policies that greedily maximize these values can be optimal. We utilize these principles to construct Monte Carlo tree search algorithms that outperform most of the state-of-the-art in terms of finding higher quality actions given the same simulation resources.

Analysis of the Bitcoin Blockchain [26] is an area of intense activity [20, 1], and one which has witnessed an explosion of interest as the value of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency hasskyrocketed. Research areas include explorations of address clustering techniques toidentify logical agents [11, 21, 11, 7], de-anonymization using side-channel attacks [8, 13]. An understanding of the properties of Bitcoin transactions is paramount to the legitimation ofthe cryptocurrency economy; it constitutes a building block to the conception of effective and adequate regulations [9], and to the design of novel and integrated services benefiting society as a whole. As of 2018, with more than 500 million address nodes, the Bitcoin graph is comparable insize to a large social network. Yet while probabilistic models of social networks have received considerable attention, from community detection [19] to diffusion models andinfluence maximization [34], to probabilistic graph modeling [17], probabilistic models of the Bitcoin Blockchain network have not. 1 Bitcoin transactions are tantamount to a partially observed social network, within which participants can have multiple seemingly independent aliases.

This research aims to identify how Bitcoin-related news publications and online discourse are expressed in Bitcoin exchange movements of price and volume. Being inherently digital, all Bitcoin-related fundamental data (from exchanges, as well as transactional data directly from the blockchain) is available online, something that is not true for traditional businesses or currencies traded on exchanges. This makes Bitcoin an interesting subject for such research, as it enables the mapping of sentiment to fundamental events that might otherwise be inaccessible. Furthermore, Bitcoin discussion largely takes place on online forums and chat channels. In stock trading, the value of sentiment data in trading decisions has been demonstrated numerous times [1] [2] [3], and this research aims to determine whether there is value in such data for Bitcoin trading models. To achieve this, data over the year 2015 has been collected from Bitcointalk.org, (the biggest Bitcoin forum in post volume), established news sources such as Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, the complete /r/btc and /r/Bitcoin subreddits, and the bitcoin-otc and bitcoin-dev IRC channels. By analyzing this data on sentiment and volume, we find weak to moderate correlations between forum, news, and Reddit sentiment and movements in price and volume from 1 to 5 days after the sentiment was expressed. A Granger causality test confirms the predictive causality of the sentiment on the daily percentage price and volume movements, and at the same time underscores the predictive causality of market movements on sentiment expressions in online communities

V oltage control plays an important role in the operation of electricity distribution networks, especially with high penetration of distributed energy resources. These resources introduce significant and fast varying uncertainties. In this paper, we focus on reactive power compensation to control voltage in the presence of uncertainties. We adopt a chance constraint approach that accounts for arbitrary correlations between renewable resources at each of the buses. We show how the problem can be solved efficiently using historical samples analogously to the stochastic quasi-gradient methods. We also show that this optimization problem is convex for a wide variety of probabilistic distributions. Compared to conventional per-bus chance constraints, our formulation is more robust to uncertainty and more computationally tractable. We illustrate the results using standard IEEE distribution test feeders. V oltage control is crucial to stable operations of power distribution systems, where it is used to maintain acceptable voltages at all buses under different operating conditions [1]. To control voltage, reactive power is traditionally regulated through tap-changing transformers and switched capacitors [2]. With recent advances in cyber-infrastructure for communication and control, it is also possible to utilize distributed energy resources (DERs, i.e., electric vehicles [3], PV panels [4], [5]) to provide voltage regulation.

We investigate the applicability of the formalism of quantum mechanics to everyday life. It seems to be directly relevant for situations in which the very act of coming to a conclusion or decision on one issue affects one's confidence about conclusions or decisions on another issue. Lie algebra theory is argued to be a very useful tool in guiding the construction of quantum descriptions of such situations. Tests, extensions and speculative applications and implications, including for the encoding of thoughts in neural networks, are discussed. It is suggested that the recognition and incorporation of such mathematical structure into machine learning and artificial intelligence might lead to significant efficiency and generality gains in addition to ensuring probabilistic reasoning at a fundamental level.

In many structured prediction problems, complex relationships between variables are compactly defined using graphical structures. The most prevalent graphical prediction methods---probabilistic graphical models and large margin methods---have their own distinct strengths but also possess significant drawbacks. Conditional random fields (CRFs) are Fisher consistent, but they do not permit integration of customized loss metrics into their learning process. Large-margin models, such as structured support vector machines (SSVMs), have the flexibility to incorporate customized loss metrics, but lack Fisher consistency guarantees. We present adversarial graphical models (AGM), a distributionally robust approach for constructing a predictor that performs robustly for a class of data distributions defined using a graphical structure. Our approach enjoys both the flexibility of incorporating customized loss metrics into its design as well as the statistical guarantee of Fisher consistency. We present exact learning and prediction algorithms for AGM with time complexity similar to existing graphical models and show the practical benefits of our approach with experiments.

Many hallmarks of human intelligence, such as generalizing from limited experience, abstract reasoning and planning, analogical reasoning, creative problem solving, and capacity for language require the ability to consolidate experience into concepts, which act as basic building blocks of understanding and reasoning. We present a framework that defines a concept by an energy function over events in the environment, as well as an attention mask over entities participating in the event. Given few demonstration events, our method uses inference-time optimization procedure to generate events involving similar concepts or identify entities involved in the concept. We evaluate our framework on learning visual, quantitative, relational, temporal concepts from demonstration events in an unsupervised manner. Our approach is able to successfully generate and identify concepts in a few-shot setting and resulting learned concepts can be reused across environments. Example videos of our results are available at sites.google.com/site/energyconceptmodels