This research aims to identify how Bitcoin-related news publications and online discourse are expressed in Bitcoin exchange movements of price and volume. Being inherently digital, all Bitcoin-related fundamental data (from exchanges, as well as transactional data directly from the blockchain) is available online, something that is not true for traditional businesses or currencies traded on exchanges. This makes Bitcoin an interesting subject for such research, as it enables the mapping of sentiment to fundamental events that might otherwise be inaccessible. Furthermore, Bitcoin discussion largely takes place on online forums and chat channels. In stock trading, the value of sentiment data in trading decisions has been demonstrated numerous times [1] [2] [3], and this research aims to determine whether there is value in such data for Bitcoin trading models. To achieve this, data over the year 2015 has been collected from Bitcointalk.org, (the biggest Bitcoin forum in post volume), established news sources such as Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, the complete /r/btc and /r/Bitcoin subreddits, and the bitcoin-otc and bitcoin-dev IRC channels. By analyzing this data on sentiment and volume, we find weak to moderate correlations between forum, news, and Reddit sentiment and movements in price and volume from 1 to 5 days after the sentiment was expressed. A Granger causality test confirms the predictive causality of the sentiment on the daily percentage price and volume movements, and at the same time underscores the predictive causality of market movements on sentiment expressions in online communities

V oltage control plays an important role in the operation of electricity distribution networks, especially with high penetration of distributed energy resources. These resources introduce significant and fast varying uncertainties. In this paper, we focus on reactive power compensation to control voltage in the presence of uncertainties. We adopt a chance constraint approach that accounts for arbitrary correlations between renewable resources at each of the buses. We show how the problem can be solved efficiently using historical samples analogously to the stochastic quasi-gradient methods. We also show that this optimization problem is convex for a wide variety of probabilistic distributions. Compared to conventional per-bus chance constraints, our formulation is more robust to uncertainty and more computationally tractable. We illustrate the results using standard IEEE distribution test feeders. V oltage control is crucial to stable operations of power distribution systems, where it is used to maintain acceptable voltages at all buses under different operating conditions [1]. To control voltage, reactive power is traditionally regulated through tap-changing transformers and switched capacitors [2]. With recent advances in cyber-infrastructure for communication and control, it is also possible to utilize distributed energy resources (DERs, i.e., electric vehicles [3], PV panels [4], [5]) to provide voltage regulation.

We investigate the applicability of the formalism of quantum mechanics to everyday life. It seems to be directly relevant for situations in which the very act of coming to a conclusion or decision on one issue affects one's confidence about conclusions or decisions on another issue. Lie algebra theory is argued to be a very useful tool in guiding the construction of quantum descriptions of such situations. Tests, extensions and speculative applications and implications, including for the encoding of thoughts in neural networks, are discussed. It is suggested that the recognition and incorporation of such mathematical structure into machine learning and artificial intelligence might lead to significant efficiency and generality gains in addition to ensuring probabilistic reasoning at a fundamental level.

In many structured prediction problems, complex relationships between variables are compactly defined using graphical structures. The most prevalent graphical prediction methods---probabilistic graphical models and large margin methods---have their own distinct strengths but also possess significant drawbacks. Conditional random fields (CRFs) are Fisher consistent, but they do not permit integration of customized loss metrics into their learning process. Large-margin models, such as structured support vector machines (SSVMs), have the flexibility to incorporate customized loss metrics, but lack Fisher consistency guarantees. We present adversarial graphical models (AGM), a distributionally robust approach for constructing a predictor that performs robustly for a class of data distributions defined using a graphical structure. Our approach enjoys both the flexibility of incorporating customized loss metrics into its design as well as the statistical guarantee of Fisher consistency. We present exact learning and prediction algorithms for AGM with time complexity similar to existing graphical models and show the practical benefits of our approach with experiments.

Many hallmarks of human intelligence, such as generalizing from limited experience, abstract reasoning and planning, analogical reasoning, creative problem solving, and capacity for language require the ability to consolidate experience into concepts, which act as basic building blocks of understanding and reasoning. We present a framework that defines a concept by an energy function over events in the environment, as well as an attention mask over entities participating in the event. Given few demonstration events, our method uses inference-time optimization procedure to generate events involving similar concepts or identify entities involved in the concept. We evaluate our framework on learning visual, quantitative, relational, temporal concepts from demonstration events in an unsupervised manner. Our approach is able to successfully generate and identify concepts in a few-shot setting and resulting learned concepts can be reused across environments. Example videos of our results are available at sites.google.com/site/energyconceptmodels

We describe a simple, low-level approach for embedding probabilistic programming in a deep learning ecosystem. In particular, we distill probabilistic programming down to a single abstraction---the random variable. Our lightweight implementation in TensorFlow enables numerous applications: a model-parallel variational auto-encoder (VAE) with 2nd-generation tensor processing units (TPUv2s); a data-parallel autoregressive model (Image Transformer) with TPUv2s; and multi-GPU No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS). For both a state-of-the-art VAE on 64x64 ImageNet and Image Transformer on 256x256 CelebA-HQ, our approach achieves an optimal linear speedup from 1 to 256 TPUv2 chips. With NUTS, we see a 100x speedup on GPUs over Stan and 37x over PyMC3.

We introduce TzK (pronounced "task"), a conditional flow-based encoder/decoder generative model, formulated in terms of maximum likelihood (ML). TzK offers efficient approximation of arbitrary data sample distributions (similar to GAN and flow-based ML), and stable training (similar to VAE and ML), while avoiding variational approximations (similar to ML). TzK exploits meta-data to facilitate a bottleneck, similar to autoencoders, thereby producing a low-dimensional representation. Unlike autoencoders, our bottleneck does not limit model expressiveness, similar to flow-based ML. Supervised, unsupervised, and semi-supervised learning are supported by replacing missing observations with samples from learned priors. We demonstrate TzK by jointly training on MNIST and Omniglot with minimal preprocessing, and weak supervision, with results which are comparable to state-of-the-art.

Abstract--In this paper, we consider the problem of low-rank phase retrieval whose objective is to estimate a complex low-rank matrix from magnitude-only measurements. We propose a hierarchical prior model for low-rank phase retrieval, in which a Gaussian-Wishart hierarchical prior is placed on the underlying low-rank matrix to promote the low-rankness of the matrix. Based on the proposed hierarchical model, a variational expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is developed. The proposed method is less sensitive to the choice of the initialization point and works well with random initialization. Simulation results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

When observing the actions of others, humans carry out inferences about why the others acted as they did, and what this implies about their view of the world. Humans also use the fact that their actions will be interpreted in this manner when observed by others, allowing them to act informatively and thereby communicate efficiently with others. Although learning algorithms have recently achieved superhuman performance in a number of two-player, zero-sum games, scalable multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms that can discover effective strategies and conventions in complex, partially observable settings have proven elusive. We present the Bayesian action decoder (BAD), a new multi-agent learning method that uses an approximate Bayesian update to obtain a public belief that conditions on the actions taken by all agents in the environment. Together with the public belief, this Bayesian update effectively defines a new Markov decision process, the public belief MDP, in which the action space consists of deterministic partial policies, parameterised by deep neural networks, that can be sampled for a given public state. It exploits the fact that an agent acting only on this public belief state can still learn to use its private information if the action space is augmented to be over partial policies mapping private information into environment actions. The Bayesian update is also closely related to the theory of mind reasoning that humans carry out when observing others' actions. We first validate BAD on a proof-of-principle two-step matrix game, where it outperforms traditional policy gradient methods. We then evaluate BAD on the challenging, cooperative partial-information card game Hanabi, where in the two-player setting the method surpasses all previously published learning and hand-coded approaches.

This study introduces a stochastic predictive-coding RNN model that can learn to extract probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the uncertainty of latent variables. The learning process of the model involves maximizing the lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data, which consists of two terms. The first one is the expectation of prediction errors and the second one is the divergence of the prior and the approximated posterior. The main focus in the current study is to examine how weighting of the second term during learning affects the way of internally representing the uncertainty hidden in the sequence data. The simulation experiment on learning a simple probabilistic finite state machine demonstrates that the estimation of uncertainty in the latent variable approaches zero at each time step and that the network imitates the probabilistic structure of the target sequences by developing deterministic chaos in the case of the high weighting. On the contrary, in the case of the low weighting, the estimate of uncertainty increases significantly because of developing a random process in the network. The analysis shows that generalization in learning is most successful between these two extremes. Qualitatively, the same property has been observed in a trail of learning more complex sequence data consisting of probabilistic transitions between a set of hand-drawn primitive patterns using the model extended with hierarchy.