It is said that beauty is in the eye of the beholder. But how exactly can we characterize such discrepancies in interpretation? For example, are there any specific features of an image that makes person A regard an image as beautiful while person B finds the same image displeasing? Such questions ultimately aim at explaining our individual ways of interpretation, an intention that has been of fundamental importance to the social sciences from the beginning. More recently, advances in computer science brought up two related questions: First, can computational tools be adopted for analyzing ways of interpretation? Second, what if the "beholder" is a computer model, i.e., how can we explain a computer model's point of view? Numerous efforts have been made regarding both of these points, while many existing approaches focus on particular aspects and are still rather separate. With this paper, in order to connect these approaches we introduce a theoretical framework for analyzing interpretation, which is applicable to interpretation of both human beings and computer models. We give an overview of relevant computational approaches from various fields, and discuss the most common and promising application areas. The focus of this paper lies on interpretation of text and image data, while many of the presented approaches are applicable to other types of data as well.

Applying for life insurance is a long and often frustrating process. Thousands of questions on seemingly every medical condition ever suffered – except yours. "We've had multiple occurrences where people answer no to all the [medical] questions, then they come to the'other' box at the end and they'll go – 'oh yeah I've had X'. And that question is actually back there, but they didn't understand it so they defaulted to'other' and started writing chapter and verse about their medical condition," explains ANZ OnePath's chief underwriter Peter Tilocca. Whenever answers are given free form, typically the application will require the scrutiny of an underwriter.

The benefits of automating design cycles for Bayesian inference-based algorithms are becoming increasingly recognized by the machine learning community. As a result, interest in probabilistic programming frameworks has much increased over the past few years. This paper explores a specific probabilistic programming paradigm, namely message passing in Forney-style factor graphs (FFGs), in the context of automated design of efficient Bayesian signal processing algorithms. To this end, we developed "ForneyLab" (https://github.com/biaslab/ForneyLab.jl) as a Julia toolbox for message passing-based inference in FFGs. We show by example how ForneyLab enables automatic derivation of Bayesian signal processing algorithms, including algorithms for parameter estimation and model comparison. Crucially, due to the modular makeup of the FFG framework, both the model specification and inference methods are readily extensible in ForneyLab. In order to test this framework, we compared variational message passing as implemented by ForneyLab with automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI) and Monte Carlo methods as implemented by state-of-the-art tools "Edward" and "Stan". In terms of performance, extensibility and stability issues, ForneyLab appears to enjoy an edge relative to its competitors for automated inference in state-space models.

We study density estimation for classes of shift-invariant distributions over $\mathbb{R}^d$. A multidimensional distribution is "shift-invariant" if, roughly speaking, it is close in total variation distance to a small shift of it in any direction. Shift-invariance relaxes smoothness assumptions commonly used in non-parametric density estimation to allow jump discontinuities. The different classes of distributions that we consider correspond to different rates of tail decay. For each such class we give an efficient algorithm that learns any distribution in the class from independent samples with respect to total variation distance. As a special case of our general result, we show that $d$-dimensional shift-invariant distributions which satisfy an exponential tail bound can be learned to total variation distance error $\epsilon$ using $\tilde{O}_d(1/ \epsilon^{d+2})$ examples and $\tilde{O}_d(1/ \epsilon^{2d+2})$ time. This implies that, for constant $d$, multivariate log-concave distributions can be learned in $\tilde{O}_d(1/\epsilon^{2d+2})$ time using $\tilde{O}_d(1/\epsilon^{d+2})$ samples, answering a question of [Diakonikolas, Kane and Stewart, 2016] All of our results extend to a model of noise-tolerant density estimation using Huber's contamination model, in which the target distribution to be learned is a $(1-\epsilon,\epsilon)$ mixture of some unknown distribution in the class with some other arbitrary and unknown distribution, and the learning algorithm must output a hypothesis distribution with total variation distance error $O(\epsilon)$ from the target distribution. We show that our general results are close to best possible by proving a simple $\Omega\left(1/\epsilon^d\right)$ information-theoretic lower bound on sample complexity even for learning bounded distributions that are shift-invariant.

We introduce a novel framework for the estimation of the posterior distribution of the weights of a neural network, based on a new probabilistic interpretation of adaptive subgradient algorithms such as AdaGrad and Adam. Having a confidence measure of the weights allows several shortcomings of neural networks to be addressed. In particular, the robustness of the network can be improved by performing weight pruning based on signal-to-noise ratios from the weight posterior distribution. Using the MNIST dataset, we demonstrate that the empirical performance of Badam, a particular instance of our framework based on Adam, is competitive in comparison to related Bayesian approaches such as Bayes By Backprop.

We describe algorithms for use by prediction markets in forming a crowd consensus joint probability distribution over thousands of related events. Equivalently, we describe market mechanisms to efficiently crowdsource both structure and parameters of a Bayesian network. Prediction markets are among the most accurate methods to combine forecasts; forecasters form a consensus probability distribution by trading contingent securities. A combinatorial prediction market forms a consensus joint distribution over many related events by allowing conditional trades or trades on Boolean combinations of events. Explicitly representing the joint distribution is infeasible, but standard inference algorithms for graphical probability models render it tractable for large numbers of base events. We show how to adapt these algorithms to compute expected assets conditional on a prospective trade, and to find the conditional state where a trader has minimum assets, allowing full asset reuse. We compare the performance of three algorithms: the straightforward algorithm from the DAGGRE (Decomposition-Based Aggregation) prediction market for geopolitical events, the simple block-merge model from the SciCast market for science and technology forecasting, and a more sophisticated algorithm we developed for future markets.

This paper addresses the mapping problem. Using a conjugate prior form, we derive the exact theoretical batch multi-object posterior density of the map given a set of measurements. The landmarks in the map are modeled as extended objects, and the measurements are described as a Poisson process, conditioned on the map. We use a Poisson process prior on the map and prove that the posterior distribution is a hybrid Poisson, multi-Bernoulli mixture distribution. We devise a Gibbs sampling algorithm to sample from the batch multi-object posterior. The proposed method can handle uncertainties in the data associations and the cardinality of the set of landmarks, and is parallelizable, making it suitable for large-scale problems. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated on synthetic data and is shown to outperform a state-of-the-art method.

Conditional kernel mean embeddings are nonparametric models that encode conditional expectations in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. While they provide a flexible and powerful framework for probabilistic inference, their performance is highly dependent on the choice of kernel and regularization hyperparameters. Nevertheless, current hyperparameter tuning methods predominantly rely on expensive cross validation or heuristics that is not optimized for the inference task. For conditional kernel mean embeddings with categorical targets and arbitrary inputs, we propose a hyperparameter learning framework based on Rademacher complexity bounds to prevent overfitting by balancing data fit against model complexity. Our approach only requires batch updates, allowing scalable kernel hyperparameter tuning without invoking kernel approximations. Experiments demonstrate that our learning framework outperforms competing methods, and can be further extended to incorporate and learn deep neural network weights to improve generalization.

An intelligent agent performs actions in order to achieve its goals. Such actions can either be externally directed, such as opening a door, or internally directed, such as writing data to a memory location or strengthening a synaptic connection. Some internal actions, to which we refer as computations, potentially help the agent choose better actions. Considering that (external) actions and computations might draw upon the same resources, such as time and energy, deciding when to act or compute, as well as what to compute, are detrimental to the performance of an agent. In an environment that provides rewards depending on an agent's behavior, an action's value is typically defined as the sum of expected long-term rewards succeeding the action (itself a complex quantity that depends on what the agent goes on to do after the action in question). However, defining the value of a computation is not as straightforward, as computations are only valuable in a higher order way, through the alteration of actions. This thesis offers a principled way of computing the value of a computation in a planning setting formalized as a Markov decision process. We present two different definitions of computation values: static and dynamic. They address two extreme cases of the computation budget: affording calculation of zero or infinitely many steps in the future. We show that these values have desirable properties, such as temporal consistency and asymptotic convergence. Furthermore, we propose methods for efficiently computing and approximating the static and dynamic computation values. We describe a sense in which the policies that greedily maximize these values can be optimal. We utilize these principles to construct Monte Carlo tree search algorithms that outperform most of the state-of-the-art in terms of finding higher quality actions given the same simulation resources.

Analysis of the Bitcoin Blockchain [26] is an area of intense activity [20, 1], and one which has witnessed an explosion of interest as the value of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency hasskyrocketed. Research areas include explorations of address clustering techniques toidentify logical agents [11, 21, 11, 7], de-anonymization using side-channel attacks [8, 13]. An understanding of the properties of Bitcoin transactions is paramount to the legitimation ofthe cryptocurrency economy; it constitutes a building block to the conception of effective and adequate regulations [9], and to the design of novel and integrated services benefiting society as a whole. As of 2018, with more than 500 million address nodes, the Bitcoin graph is comparable insize to a large social network. Yet while probabilistic models of social networks have received considerable attention, from community detection [19] to diffusion models andinfluence maximization [34], to probabilistic graph modeling [17], probabilistic models of the Bitcoin Blockchain network have not. 1 Bitcoin transactions are tantamount to a partially observed social network, within which participants can have multiple seemingly independent aliases.