Uncertainty
On Human Robot Interaction using Multiple Modes
Humanoid robots have apparently similar body structure like human beings. Due to their technical design, they are sharing the same workspace with humans. They are placed to clean things, to assist old age people, to entertain us and most importantly to serve us. To be acceptable in the household, they must have higher level of intelligence than industrial robots and they must be social and capable of interacting people around it, who are not supposed to be robot specialist. All these come under the field of human robot interaction (HRI). There are various modes like speech, gesture, behavior etc. through which human can interact with robots. To solve all these challenges, a multimodel technique has been introduced where gesture as well as speech is used as a mode of interaction.
Monotonic classification: an overview on algorithms, performance measures and data sets
Cano, Josรฉ-Ramรณn, Gutiรฉrrez, Pedro Antonio, Krawczyk, Bartosz, Woลบniak, Michaล, Garcรญa, Salvador
Currently, knowledge discovery in databases is an essential step to identify valid, novel and useful patterns for decision making. There are many real-world scenarios, such as bankruptcy prediction, option pricing or medical diagnosis, where the classification models to be learned need to fulfil restrictions of monotonicity (i.e. the target class label should not decrease when input attributes values increase). For instance, it is rational to assume that a higher debt ratio of a company should never result in a lower level of bankruptcy risk. Consequently, there is a growing interest from the data mining research community concerning monotonic predictive models. This paper aims to present an overview about the literature in the field, analyzing existing techniques and proposing a taxonomy of the algorithms based on the type of model generated. For each method, we review the quality metrics considered in the evaluation and the different data sets and monotonic problems used in the analysis. In this way, this paper serves as an overview of the research about monotonic classification in specialized literature and can be used as a functional guide of the field.
A Bayesian Clearing Mechanism for Combinatorial Auctions
Brero, Gianluca, Lahaie, Sรฉbastien
We cast the problem of combinatorial auction design in a Bayesian framework in order to incorporate prior information into the auction process and minimize the number of rounds to convergence. We first develop a generative model of agent valuations and market prices such that clearing prices become maximum a posteriori estimates given observed agent valuations. This generative model then forms the basis of an auction process which alternates between refining estimates of agent valuations and computing candidate clearing prices. We provide an implementation of the auction using assumed density filtering to estimate valuations and expectation maximization to compute prices. An empirical evaluation over a range of valuation domains demonstrates that our Bayesian auction mechanism is highly competitive against the combinatorial clock auction in terms of rounds to convergence, even under the most favorable choices of price increment for this baseline.
Infinite-Horizon Gaussian Processes
Solin, Arno, Hensman, James, Turner, Richard E.
Gaussian processes provide a flexible framework for forecasting, removing noise, and interpreting long temporal datasets. State space modelling (Kalman filtering) enables these non-parametric models to be deployed on long datasets by reducing the complexity to linear in the number of data points. The complexity is still cubic in the state dimension $m$ which is an impediment to practical application. In certain special cases (Gaussian likelihood, regular spacing) the GP posterior will reach a steady posterior state when the data are very long. We leverage this and formulate an inference scheme for GPs with general likelihoods, where inference is based on single-sweep EP (assumed density filtering). The infinite-horizon model tackles the cubic cost in the state dimensionality and reduces the cost in the state dimension $m$ to $\mathcal{O}(m^2)$ per data point. The model is extended to online-learning of hyperparameters. We show examples for large finite-length modelling problems, and present how the method runs in real-time on a smartphone on a continuous data stream updated at 100~Hz.
Granularity and Generalized Inclusion Functions - Their Variants and Contamination
Rough inclusion functions (RIFs) are known by many other names in formal approaches to vagueness, belief, and uncertainty. Their use is often poorly grounded in factual knowledge or involve wild statistical assumptions. The concept of contamination introduced and studied by the present author across a number of her papers, concerns mixing up of information across semantic domains (or domains of discourse). RIFs play a key role in contaminating algorithms and some solutions that seek to replace or avoid them have been proposed and investigated by the present author in some of her earlier papers. The proposals break many algorithms of rough sets in a serious way. In this research, algorithm-friendly granular generalizations of such functions that reduce contamination are proposed and investigated from a mathematically sound perspective. Interesting representation results are proved and a core algebraic strategy for generalizing Skowron-Polkowski style of rough mereology is formulated.
Structural Damage Detection and Localization with Unknown Post-Damage Feature Distribution Using Sequential Change-Point Detection Method
Liao, Yizheng, Kiremidjian, Anne S., Rajagopal, Ram, Loh, Chin-Hsuing
The high structural deficient rate poses serious risks to the operation of many bridges and buildings. To prevent critical damage and structural collapse, a quick structural health diagnosis tool is needed during normal operation or immediately after extreme events. In structural health monitoring (SHM), many existing works will have limited performance in the quick damage identification process because 1) the damage event needs to be identified with short delay and 2) the post-damage information is usually unavailable. To address these drawbacks, we propose a new damage detection and localization approach based on stochastic time series analysis. Specifically, the damage sensitive features are extracted from vibration signals and follow different distributions before and after a damage event. Hence, we use the optimal change point detection theory to find damage occurrence time. As the existing change point detectors require the post-damage feature distribution, which is unavailable in SHM, we propose a maximum likelihood method to learn the distribution parameters from the time-series data. The proposed damage detection using estimated parameters also achieves the optimal performance. Also, we utilize the detection results to find damage location without any further computation. Validation results show highly accurate damage identification in American Society of Civil Engineers benchmark structure and two shake table experiments.
Unsupervised learning with contrastive latent variable models
Severson, Kristen, Ghosh, Soumya, Ng, Kenney
In unsupervised learning, dimensionality reduction is an important tool for data exploration and visualization. Because these aims are typically open-ended, it can be useful to frame the problem as looking for patterns that are enriched in one dataset relative to another. These pairs of datasets occur commonly, for instance a population of interest vs. control or signal vs. signal free recordings.However, there are few methods that work on sets of data as opposed to data points or sequences. Here, we present a probabilistic model for dimensionality reduction to discover signal that is enriched in the target dataset relative to the background dataset. The data in these sets do not need to be paired or grouped beyond set membership. By using a probabilistic model where some structure is shared amongst the two datasets and some is unique to the target dataset, we are able to recover interesting structure in the latent space of the target dataset. The method also has the advantages of a probabilistic model, namely that it allows for the incorporation of prior information, handles missing data, and can be generalized to different distributional assumptions. We describe several possible variations of the model and demonstrate the application of the technique to de-noising, feature selection, and subgroup discovery settings.
Fast Distribution Grid Line Outage Identification with $\mu$PMU
Liao, Yizheng, Weng, Yang, Tan, Chin-Woo, Rajagopal, Ram
The growing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) in urban distribution grids raises various reliability issues due to DER's uncertain and complex behaviors. With a large-scale DER penetration, traditional outage detection methods, which rely on customers making phone calls and smart meters' "last gasp" signals, will have limited performance, because the renewable generators can supply powers after line outages and many urban grids are mesh so line outages do not affect power supply. To address these drawbacks, we propose a data-driven outage monitoring approach based on the stochastic time series analysis from micro phasor measurement unit ($\mu$PMU). Specifically, we prove via power flow analysis that the dependency of time-series voltage measurements exhibits significant statistical changes after line outages. This makes the theory on optimal change-point detection suitable to identify line outages via $\mu$PMUs with fast and accurate sampling. However, existing change point detection methods require post-outage voltage distribution unknown in distribution systems. Therefore, we design a maximum likelihood-based method to directly learn the distribution parameters from $\mu$PMU data. We prove that the estimated parameters-based detection still achieves the optimal performance, making it extremely useful for distribution grid outage identifications. Simulation results show highly accurate outage identification in eight distribution grids with 14 configurations with and without DERs using $\mu$PMU data.
The Deep Weight Prior
Atanov, Andrei, Ashukha, Arsenii, Struminsky, Kirill, Vetrov, Dmitry, Welling, Max
Bayesian inference is known to provide a general framework for incorporating prior knowledge or specific properties into machine learning models via carefully choosing a prior distribution. In this work, we propose a new type of prior distributions for convolutional neural networks, deep weight prior, that in contrast to previously published techniques, favors empirically estimated structure of convolutional filters e.g., spatial correlations of weights. We define deep weight prior as an implicit distribution and propose a method for variational inference with such type of implicit priors. In experiments, we show that deep weight priors can improve the performance of Bayesian neural networks on several problems when training data is limited. Also, we found that initialization of weights of conventional networks with samples from deep weight prior leads to faster training.
An Introduction to Fuzzy & Annotated Semantic Web Languages
We present the state of the art in representing and reasoning with fuzzy knowledge in Semantic Web Languages such as triple languages RDF/RDFS, conceptual languages of the OWL 2 family and rule languages. We further show how one may generalise them to so-called annotation domains, that cover also e.g.