Modern deep neural network models suffer from adversarial examples, i.e. confidently misclassified points in the input space. It has been shown that Bayesian neural networks are a promising approach for detecting adversarial points, but careful analysis is problematic due to the complexity of these models. Recently Gilmer et al. (2018) introduced adversarial spheres, a toy set-up that simplifies both practical and theoretical analysis of the problem. In this work, we use the adversarial sphere set-up to understand the properties of approximate Bayesian inference methods for a linear model in a noiseless setting. We compare predictions of Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods, showcasing the advantages of the former, although revealing open challenges for deep learning applications.

In this paper, we make a review on the concepts of rationality across several different fields, namely in economics, psychology and evolutionary biology and behavioural ecology. We review how processes like natural selection can help us understand the evolution of cognition and how cognitive biases might be a consequence of this natural selection. In the end we argue that humans are not irrational, but rather rationally bounded and we complement the discussion on how quantum cognitive models can contribute for the modelling and prediction of human paradoxical decisions.

Weighted model integration (WMI) extends weighted model counting (WMC) in providing a computational abstraction for probabilistic inference in mixed discrete-continuous domains. WMC has emerged as an assembly language for state-of-the-art reasoning in Bayesian networks, factor graphs, probabilistic programs and probabilistic databases. In this regard, WMI shows immense promise to be much more widely applicable, especially as many real-world applications involve attribute and feature spaces that are continuous and mixed. Nonetheless, state-of-the-art tools for WMI are limited and less mature than their propositional counterparts. In this work, we propose a new implementation regime that leverages propositional knowledge compilation for scaling up inference. In particular, we use sentential decision diagrams, a tractable representation of Boolean functions, as the underlying model counting and model enumeration scheme. Our regime performs competitively to state-of-the-art WMI systems, but is also shown, for the first time, to handle non-linear constraints over non-linear potentials.

Deriving conditional and marginal distributions using conjugacy relationships can be time consuming and error prone. In this paper, we propose a strategy for automating such derivations. Unlike previous systems which focus on relationships between pairs of random variables, our system (which we call Autoconj) operates directly on Python functions that compute log-joint distribution functions. Autoconj provides support for conjugacy-exploiting algorithms in any Python-embedded PPL. This paves the way for accelerating development of novel inference algorithms and structure-exploiting modeling strategies.

The sigma-point filters, such as the UKF, which exploit numerical quadrature to obtain an additional order of accuracy in the moment transformation step, are popular alternatives to the ubiquitous EKF. The classical quadrature rules used in the sigma-point filters are motivated via polynomial approximation of the integrand, however in the applied context these assumptions cannot always be justified. As a result, quadrature error can introduce bias into estimated moments, for which there is no compensatory mechanism in the classical sigma-point filters. This can lead in turn to estimates and predictions that are poorly calibrated. In this article, we investigate the Bayes-Sard quadrature method in the context of sigma-point filters, which enables uncertainty due to quadrature error to be formalised within a probabilistic model. Our first contribution is to derive the well-known classical quadratures as special cases of the Bayes-Sard quadrature method. Then a general-purpose moment transform is developed and utilised in the design of novel sigma-point filters, so that uncertainty due to quadrature error is explicitly quantified. Numerical experiments on a challenging tracking example with misspecified initial conditions show that the additional uncertainty quantification built into our method leads to better-calibrated state estimates with improved RMSE.

Until recently, transcriptomics was limited to bulk RNA sequencing, obscuring the underlying expression patterns of individual cells in favor of a global average. Thanks to technological advances, we can now profile gene expression across thousands or millions of individual cells in parallel. This new type of data has led to the intriguing discovery that individual cell profiles can reflect the imprint of time or dynamic processes. However, synthesizing this information to reconstruct dynamic biological phenomena from data that are noisy, heterogenous, and sparse---and from processes that may unfold asynchronously---poses a complex computational and statistical challenge. Here, we develop a full generative model for probabilistically reconstructing trees of cellular differentiation from single-cell RNA-seq data. Specifically, we extend the framework of the classical Dirichlet diffusion tree to simultaneously infer branch topology and latent cell states along continuous trajectories over the full tree. In tandem, we construct a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler that interleaves Metropolis-Hastings and message passing to leverage model structure for efficient inference. Finally, we demonstrate that these techniques can recover latent trajectories from simulated single-cell transcriptomes. While this work is motivated by cellular differentiation, we derive a tractable model that provides flexible densities for any data (coupled with an appropriate noise model) that arise from continuous evolution along a latent nonparametric tree.

Quantifying and managing uncertainties that occur when data-driven models such as those provided by AI and machine learning methods are applied is crucial. This whitepaper provides a brief motivation and first overview of the state of the art in identifying and quantifying sources of uncertainty for data-driven components as well as means for analyzing their impact.

Time series forecasting gets much attention due to its impact on many practical applications. Higher-order neural network with recurrent feedback is a powerful technique which used successfully for forecasting. It maintains fast learning and the ability to learn the dynamics of the series over time. For that, in this paper, we propose a novel model which is called Ridge Polynomial Neural Network with Error-Output Feedbacks (RPNN-EOFs) that combines the properties of higher order and error-output feedbacks. The well-known Mackey-Glass time series is used to test the forecasting capability of RPNN-EOFS. Simulation results showed that the proposed RPNN-EOFs provides better understanding for the Mackey-Glass time series with root mean square error equal to 0.00416. This result is smaller than other models in the literature. Therefore, we can conclude that the RPNN-EOFs can be applied successfully for time series forecasting.

Class-imbalance refers to classification problems in which many more instances are available for certain classes than for others. Such imbalanced datasets require special attention because traditional classifiers generally favor the majority class which has a large number of instances. Ensemble of classifiers have been reported to yield promising results. However, the majority of ensemble methods applied to imbalanced learning are static ones. Moreover, they only deal with binary imbalanced problems. Hence, this paper presents an empirical analysis of dynamic selection techniques and data preprocessing methods for dealing with multi-class imbalanced problems. We considered five variations of preprocessing methods and fourteen dynamic selection schemes. Our experiments conducted on 26 multi-class imbalanced problems show that the dynamic ensemble improves the AUC and the G-mean as compared to the static ensemble. Moreover, data preprocessing plays an important role in such cases.

Recently, techniques for applying convolutional neural networks to graph-structured data have emerged. Graph convolutional neural networks (GCNNs) have been used to address node and graph classification and matrix completion. Although the performance has been impressive, the current implementations have limited capability to incorporate uncertainty in the graph structure. Almost all GCNNs process a graph as though it is a ground-truth depiction of the relationship between nodes, but often the graphs employed in applications are themselves derived from noisy data or modelling assumptions. Spurious edges may be included; other edges may be missing between nodes that have very strong relationships. In this paper we adopt a Bayesian approach, viewing the observed graph as a realization from a parametric family of random graphs. We then target inference of the joint posterior of the random graph parameters and the node (or graph) labels. We present the Bayesian GCNN framework and develop an iterative learning procedure for the case of assortative mixed-membership stochastic block models. We present the results of experiments that demonstrate that the Bayesian formulation can provide better performance when there are very few labels available during the training process.