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 Uncertainty


Towards Gaussian Bayesian Network Fusion

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Data sets are growing in complexity thanks to the increasing facilities we have nowadays to both generate and store data. This poses many challenges to machine learning that are leading to the proposal of new methods and paradigms, in order to be able to deal with what is nowadays referred to as Big Data. In this paper we propose a method for the aggregation of different Bayesian network structures that have been learned from separate data sets, as a first step towards mining data sets that need to be partitioned in an horizontal way, i.e. with respect to the instances, in order to be processed. Considerations that should be taken into account when dealing with this situation are discussed. Scalable learning of Bayesian networks is slowly emerging, and our method constitutes one of the first insights into Gaussian Bayesian network aggregation from different sources. Tested on synthetic data it obtains good results that surpass those from individual learning. Future research will be focused on expanding the method and testing more diverse data sets.


Fake News: A Survey of Research, Detection Methods, and Opportunities

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The explosive growth in fake news and its erosion to democracy, justice, and public trust has increased the demand for fake news analysis, detection and intervention. This survey comprehensively and systematically reviews fake news research. The survey identifies and specifies fundamental theories across various disciplines, e.g., psychology and social science, to facilitate and enhance the interdisciplinary research of fake news. Current fake news research is reviewed, summarized and evaluated. These studies focus on fake news from four perspective: (1) the false knowledge it carries, (2) its writing style, (3) its propagation patterns, and (4) the credibility of its creators and spreaders. We characterize each perspective with various analyzable and utilizable information provided by news and its spreaders, various strategies and frameworks that are adaptable, and techniques that are applicable. By reviewing the characteristics of fake news and open issues in fake news studies, we highlight some potential research tasks at the end of this survey.


Fuzzy expert system for prediction of prostate cancer

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A fuzzy expert system (FES) for the prediction of prostate cancer (PC) is prescribed in this article. Age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), prostate volume (PV) and $\%$ Free PSA ($\%$FPSA) are fed as inputs into the FES and prostate cancer risk (PCR) is obtained as the output. Using knowledge based rules in Mamdani type inference method the output is calculated. If PCR $\ge 50\%$, then the patient shall be advised to go for a biopsy test for confirmation. The efficacy of the designed FES is tested against a clinical data set. The true prediction for all the patients turns out to be $68.91\%$ whereas only for positive biopsy cases it rises to $73.77\%$. This simple yet effective FES can be used as supportive tool for decision making in medical diagnosis.


Data-driven Conceptual Spaces: Creating Semantic Representations For Linguistic Descriptions Of Numerical Data

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

There is an increasing need to derive semantics from real-world observations to facilitate natural information sharing between machine and human. Conceptual spaces theory is a possible approach and has been proposed as mid-level representation between symbolic and sub-symbolic representations, whereby concepts are represented in a geometrical space that is characterised by a number of quality dimensions. Currently, much of the work has demonstrated how conceptual spaces are created in a knowledge-driven manner, relying on prior knowledge to form concepts and identify quality dimensions. This paper presents a method to create semantic representations using data-driven conceptual spaces which are then used to derive linguistic descriptions of numerical data. Our contribution is a principled approach to automatically construct a conceptual space from a set of known observations wherein the quality dimensions and domains are not known a priori. This novelty of the approach is the ability to select and group semantic features to discriminate between concepts in a data-driven manner while preserving the semantic interpretation that is needed to infer linguistic descriptions for interaction with humans. Two data sets representing leaf images and time series signals are used to evaluate the method. An empirical evaluation for each case study assesses how well linguistic descriptions generated from the conceptual spaces identify unknown observations. Furthermore, comparisons are made with descriptions derived on alternative approaches for generating semantic models.


Eigenvalue Corrected Noisy Natural Gradient

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Variational Bayesian neural networks combine the flexibility of deep learning with Bayesian uncertainty estimation. However, inference procedures for flexible variational posteriors are computationally expensive. A recently proposed method, noisy natural gradient, is a surprisingly simple method to fit expressive posteriors by adding weight noise to regular natural gradient updates. Noisy K-FAC is an instance of noisy natural gradient that fits a matrix-variate Gaussian posterior with minor changes to ordinary K-FAC. Nevertheless, a matrix-variate Gaussian posterior does not capture an accurate diagonal variance. In this work, we extend on noisy K-FAC to obtain a more flexible posterior distribution called eigenvalue corrected matrix-variate Gaussian. The proposed method computes the full diagonal re-scaling factor in Kronecker-factored eigenbasis. Empirically, our approach consistently outperforms existing algorithms (e.g., noisy K-FAC) on regression and classification tasks.


On the Implicit Assumptions of GANs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Generative adversarial nets (GANs) (Goodfellow et al., 2014; Gutmann et al., 2014) have generated a lot of excitement. Despite their popularity, they exhibit a number of well-documented issues in practice, which apparently contradict theoretical guarantees.A number of enlightening papers, e.g.: (Arora et al., 2017; Sinn & Rawat, 2017; Cornish et al., 2018), have pointed out that these issues arise from unjustified assumptions that are commonly made, but the message seems to have been lost amid the optimism of recent years. We believe the identified problems deservemore attention, and highlight the implications on both the properties of GANs and the trajectory of research on probabilistic models. We recently proposed analternative method (Li & Malik, 2018) that sidesteps these problems.


The Relevance of Bayesian Layer Positioning to Model Uncertainty in Deep Bayesian Active Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

One of the main challenges of deep learning tools is their inability to capture model uncertainty. While Bayesian deep learning can be used to tackle the problem, Bayesian neural networks often require more time and computational power to train than deterministic networks. Our work explores whether fully Bayesian networks are needed to successfully capture model uncertainty. We vary the number and position of Bayesian layers in a network and compare their performance on active learning with the MNIST dataset. We found that we can fully capture the model uncertainty by using only a few Bayesian layers near the output of the network, combining the advantages of deterministic and Bayesian networks.


Sequential Embedding Induced Text Clustering, a Non-parametric Bayesian Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Current state-of-the-art nonparametric Bayesian text clustering methods model documents through multinomial distribution on bags of words. Although these methods can effectively utilize the word burstiness representation of documents and achieve decent performance, they do not explore the sequential information of text and relationships among synonyms. In this paper, the documents are modeled as the joint of bags of words, sequential features and word embeddings. We proposed Sequential Embedding induced Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (SiDPMM) to effectively exploit this joint document representation in text clustering. The sequential features are extracted by the encoder-decoder component. Word embeddings produced by the continuous-bag-of-words (CBOW) model are introduced to handle synonyms. Experimental results demonstrate the benefits of our model in two major aspects: 1) improved performance across multiple diverse text datasets in terms of the normalized mutual information (NMI); 2) more accurate inference of ground truth cluster numbers with regularization effect on tiny outlier clusters.


Uncertainty propagation in neural networks for sparse coding

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A novel method to propagate uncertainty through the soft-thresholding nonlinearity is proposed in this paper. At every layer the current distribution of the target vector is represented as a spike and slab distribution, which represents the probabilities of each variable being zero, or Gaussian-distributed. Using the proposed method of uncertainty propagation, the gradients of the logarithms of normalisation constants are derived, that can be used to update a weight distribution. A novel Bayesian neural network for sparse coding is designed utilising both the proposed method of uncertainty propagation and Bayesian inference algorithm.


Robust Bayesian Cluster Enumeration

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A major challenge in cluster analysis is that the number of data clusters is mostly unknown and it must be estimated prior to clustering the observed data. In real-world applications, the observed data is often subject to heavy tailed noise and outliers which obscure the true underlying structure of the data. Consequently, estimating the number of clusters becomes challenging. To this end, we derive a robust cluster enumeration criterion by formulating the problem of estimating the number of clusters as maximization of the posterior probability of multivariate $t_\nu$ candidate models. We utilize Bayes' theorem and asymptotic approximations to come up with a robust criterion that possesses a closed-form expression. Further, we refine the derivation and provide a robust cluster enumeration criterion for the finite sample regime. The robust criteria require an estimate of cluster parameters for each candidate model as an input. Hence, we propose a two-step cluster enumeration algorithm that uses the expectation maximization algorithm to partition the data and estimate cluster parameters prior to the calculation of one of the robust criteria. The performance of the proposed algorithm is tested and compared to existing cluster enumeration methods using numerical and real data experiments.