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 Uncertainty


Low-Dimensional Adaptation of Rectified Flow: A New Perspective through the Lens of Diffusion and Stochastic Localization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In recent years, Rectified flow (RF) has gained considerable popularity largely due to its generation efficiency and state-of-the-art performance. In this paper, we investigate the degree to which RF automatically adapts to the intrinsic low dimensionality of the support of the target distribution to accelerate sampling. We show that, using a carefully designed choice of the time-discretization scheme and with sufficiently accurate drift estimates, the RF sampler enjoys an iteration complexity of order $O(k/\varepsilon)$ (up to log factors), where $\varepsilon$ is the precision in total variation distance and $k$ is the intrinsic dimension of the target distribution. In addition, we show that the denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) procedure is equivalent to a stochastic version of RF by establishing a novel connection between these processes and stochastic localization. Building on this connection, we further design a stochastic RF sampler that also adapts to the low-dimensionality of the target distribution under milder requirements on the accuracy of the drift estimates, and also with a specific time schedule. We illustrate with simulations on the synthetic data and text-to-image data experiments the improved performance of the proposed samplers implementing the newly designed time-discretization schedules.


A tensor network formalism for neuro-symbolic AI

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The unification of neural and symbolic approaches to artificial intelligence remains a central open challenge. In this work, we introduce a tensor network formalism, which captures sparsity principles originating in the different approaches in tensor decompositions. In particular, we describe a basis encoding scheme for functions and model neural decompositions as tensor decompositions. The proposed formalism can be applied to represent logical formulas and probability distributions as structured tensor decompositions. This unified treatment identifies tensor network contractions as a fundamental inference class and formulates efficiently scaling reasoning algorithms, originating from probability theory and propositional logic, as contraction message passing schemes. The framework enables the definition and training of hybrid logical and probabilistic models, which we call Hybrid Logic Network. The theoretical concepts are accompanied by the python library tnreason, which enables the implementation and practical use of the proposed architectures.


Conformal Blindness: A Note on $A$-Cryptic change-points

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conformal Test Martingales (CTMs) are a standard method within the Conformal Prediction framework for testing the crucial assumption of data exchangeability by monitoring deviations from uniformity in the p-value sequence. Although exchangeability implies uniform p-values, the converse does not hold. This raises the question of whether a significant break in exchangeability can occur, such that the p-values remain uniform, rendering CTMs blind. We answer this affirmatively, demonstrating the phenomenon of \emph{conformal blindness}. Through explicit construction, for the theoretically ideal ``predictive oracle'' conformity measure (given by the true conditional density), we demonstrate the possibility of an \emph{$A$-cryptic change-point} (where $A$ refers to the conformity measure). Using bivariate Gaussian distributions, we identify a line along which a change in the marginal means does not alter the distribution of the conformity scores, thereby producing perfectly uniform p-values. Simulations confirm that even a massive distribution shift can be perfectly cryptic to the CTM, highlighting a fundamental limitation and emphasising the critical role of the alignment of the conformity measure with potential shifts. By contrasting the predictive oracle with recent results on detection-optimal scores, we emphasise that validity monitoring in safety-critical systems requires careful separation of predictive and diagnostic goals.


Semi-Supervised Mixture Models under the Concept of Missing at Radom with Margin Confidence and Aranda Ordaz Function

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Abstract--This paper presents a semi-supervised learning framework for Gaussian mixture modelling under a Missing at Random (MAR) mechanism. T o quantify classification uncertainty, we introduce margin confidence and incorporate the Aranda-Ordaz (AO) link function to flexibly capture the asymmetric relationships between uncertainty and missing probability. Based on this formulation, we develop an efficient Expectation-Conditional Maximization (ECM) algorithm that jointly estimates all parameters appearing in both the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and the missingness mechanism, and subsequently imputes the missing labels by a Bayesian classifier derived from the fitted mixture model. This method effectively alleviates the bias induced by ignoring the missingness mechanism while enhancing the robustness of semi-supervised learning. The resulting uncertainty-aware framework delivers reliable classification performance in realistic MAR scenarios with substantial proportions of missing labels.


Diffusion Epistemic Uncertainty with Asymmetric Learning for Diffusion-Generated Image Detection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The rapid progress of diffusion models highlights the growing need for detecting generated images. Previous research demonstrates that incorporating diffusion-based measurements, such as reconstruction error, can enhance the gener-alizability of detectors. However, ignoring the differing impacts of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty on reconstruction error can undermine detection performance. Aleatoric uncertainty, arising from inherent data noise, creates ambiguity that impedes accurate detection of generated images. As it reflects random variations within the data (e.g., noise in natural textures), it does not help distinguish generated images. In contrast, epistemic uncertainty, which represents the model's lack of knowledge about unfamiliar patterns, supports detection. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, Diffusion Epistemic Uncertainty with Asymmetric Learning (DEUA), for detecting diffusion-generated images. W e introduce Diffusion Epistemic Uncertainty (DEU) estimation via the Laplace approximation to assess the proximity of data to the manifold of diffusion-generated samples. Additionally, an asymmetric loss function is introduced to train a balanced classifier with larger margins, further enhancing generalizability.


When Are Two Scores Better Than One? Investigating Ensembles of Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Diffusion models now generate high-quality, diverse samples, with an increasing focus on more powerful models. Although ensembling is a well-known way to improve supervised models, its application to unconditional score-based diffusion models remains largely unexplored. In this work we investigate whether it provides tangible benefits for generative modelling. We find that while ensembling the scores generally improves the score-matching loss and model likelihood, it fails to consistently enhance perceptual quality metrics such as FID on image datasets. We confirm this observation across a breadth of aggregation rules using Deep Ensembles, Monte Carlo Dropout, on CIF AR-10 and FFHQ. We attempt to explain this discrepancy by investigating possible explanations, such as the link between score estimation and image quality. We also look into tabular data through random forests, and find that one aggregation strategy outperforms the others. Finally, we provide theoretical insights into the summing of score models, which shed light not only on ensembling but also on several model composition techniques (e.g.


Inverting Self-Organizing Maps: A Unified Activation-Based Framework

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Self-Organizing Maps provide topology-preserving projections of high-dimensional data and have been widely used for visualization, clustering, and vector quantization. In this work, we show that the activation pattern of a SOM - the squared distances to its prototypes - can be inverted to recover the exact input under mild geometric conditions. This follows from a classical fact in Euclidean distance geometry: a point in $D$ dimensions is uniquely determined by its distances to $D{+}1$ affinely independent references. We derive the corresponding linear system and characterize the conditions under which the inversion is well-posed. Building upon this mechanism, we introduce the Manifold-Aware Unified SOM Inversion and Control (MUSIC) update rule, which enables controlled, semantically meaningful trajectories in latent space. MUSIC modifies squared distances to selected prototypes while preserving others, resulting in a deterministic geometric flow aligned with the SOM's piecewise-linear structure. Tikhonov regularization stabilizes the update rule and ensures smooth motion on high-dimensional datasets. Unlike variational or probabilistic generative models, MUSIC does not rely on sampling, latent priors, or encoder-decoder architectures. If no perturbation is applied, inversion recovers the exact input; when a target cluster or prototype is specified, MUSIC produces coherent semantic variations while remaining on the data manifold. This leads to a new perspective on data augmentation and controllable latent exploration based solely on prototype geometry. We validate the approach using synthetic Gaussian mixtures, the MNIST and the Faces in the Wild dataset. Across all settings, MUSIC produces smooth, interpretable trajectories that reveal the underlying geometry of the learned manifold, illustrating the advantages of SOM-based inversion over unsupervised clustering.


Does Privacy Always Harm Fairness? Data-Dependent Trade-offs via Chernoff Information Neural Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Fairness and privacy are two vital pillars of trustworthy machine learning. Despite extensive research on these individual topics, the relationship between fairness and privacy has received significantly less attention. In this paper, we utilize the information-theoretic measure Chernoff Information to highlight the data-dependent nature of the relationship among the triad of fairness, privacy, and accuracy. We first define Noisy Chernoff Difference, a tool that allows us to analyze the relationship among the triad simultaneously. We then show that for synthetic data, this value behaves in 3 distinct ways (depending on the distribution of the data). We highlight the data distributions involved in these cases and explore their fairness and privacy implications. Additionally, we show that Noisy Chernoff Difference acts as a proxy for the steepness of the fairness-accuracy curves. Finally, we propose a method for estimating Chernoff Information on data from unknown distributions and utilize this framework to examine the triad dynamic on real datasets. This work builds towards a unified understanding of the fairness-privacy-accuracy relationship and highlights its data-dependent nature.


Empirical Risk Minimization with $f$-Divergence Regularization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, the solution to the empirical risk minimization problem with $f$-divergence regularization (ERM-$f$DR) is presented and conditions under which the solution also serves as the solution to the minimization of the expected empirical risk subject to an $f$-divergence constraint are established. The proposed approach extends applicability to a broader class of $f$-divergences than previously reported and yields theoretical results that recover previously known results. Additionally, the difference between the expected empirical risk of the ERM-$f$DR solution and that of its reference measure is characterized, providing insights into previously studied cases of $f$-divergences. A central contribution is the introduction of the normalization function, a mathematical object that is critical in both the dual formulation and practical computation of the ERM-$f$DR solution. This work presents an implicit characterization of the normalization function as a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE), establishes its key properties, and subsequently leverages them to construct a numerical algorithm for approximating the normalization factor under mild assumptions. Further analysis demonstrates structural equivalences between ERM-$f$DR problems with different $f$-divergences via transformations of the empirical risk. Finally, the proposed algorithm is used to compute the training and test risks of ERM-$f$DR solutions under different $f$-divergence regularizers. This numerical example highlights the practical implications of choosing different functions $f$ in ERM-$f$DR problems.


Decoding Rewards in Competitive Games: Inverse Game Theory with Entropy Regularization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Estimating the unknown reward functions driving agents' behaviors is of central interest in inverse reinforcement learning and game theory. To tackle this problem, we develop a unified framework for reward function recovery in two-player zero-sum matrix games and Markov games with entropy regularization, where we aim to reconstruct the underlying reward functions given observed players' strategies and actions. This task is challenging due to the inherent ambiguity of inverse problems, the non-uniqueness of feasible rewards, and limited observational data coverage. To address these challenges, we establish the reward function's identifiability using the quantal response equilibrium (QRE) under linear assumptions. Building upon this theoretical foundation, we propose a novel algorithm to learn reward functions from observed actions. Our algorithm works in both static and dynamic settings and is adaptable to incorporate different methods, such as Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). We provide strong theoretical guarantees for the reliability and sample efficiency of our algorithm. Further, we conduct extensive numerical studies to demonstrate the practical effectiveness of the proposed framework, offering new insights into decision-making in competitive environments.