Gaussian Processes (GPs) are a generic modelling tool for supervised learning. While they have been successfully applied on large datasets, their use in safety-critical applications is hindered by the lack of good performance guarantees. To this end, we propose a method to learn GPs and their sparse approximations by directly optimizing a PAC-Bayesian bound on their generalization performance, instead of maximizing the marginal likelihood. Besides its theoretical appeal, we find in our evaluation that our learning method is robust and yields significantly better generalization guarantees than other common GP approaches on several regression benchmark datasets.

Combining Bayesian nonparametrics and a forward model selection strategy, we construct parsimonious Bayesian deep networks (PBDNs) that infer capacity-regularized network architectures from the data and require neither cross-validation nor fine-tuning when training the model. One of the two essential components of a PBDN is the development of a special infinite-wide single-hidden-layer neural network, whose number of active hidden units can be inferred from the data. The other one is the construction of a greedy layer-wise learning algorithm that uses a forward model selection criterion to determine when to stop adding another hidden layer. We develop both Gibbs sampling and stochastic gradient descent based maximum a posteriori inference for PBDNs, providing state-of-the-art classification accuracy and interpretable data subtypes near the decision boundaries, while maintaining low computational complexity for out-of-sample prediction.

Deterministic neural nets have been shown to learn effective predictors on a wide range of machine learning problems. However, as the standard approach is to train the network to minimize a prediction loss, the resultant model remains ignorant to its prediction confidence. Orthogonally to Bayesian neural nets that indirectly infer prediction uncertainty through weight uncertainties, we propose explicit modeling of the same using the theory of subjective logic. By placing a Dirichlet distribution on the class probabilities, we treat predictions of a neural net as subjective opinions and learn the function that collects the evidence leading to these opinions by a deterministic neural net from data. The resultant predictor for a multi-class classification problem is another Dirichlet distribution whose parameters are set by the continuous output of a neural net. We provide a preliminary analysis on how the peculiarities of our new loss function drive improved uncertainty estimation. We observe that our method achieves unprecedented success on detection of out-of-distribution queries and endurance against adversarial perturbations.

\textit{Adaptive importance sampling} (AIS) uses past samples to update the \textit{sampling policy} $q_t$ at each stage $t$. Each stage $t$ is formed with two steps : (i) to explore the space with $n_t$ points according to $q_t$ and (ii) to exploit the current amount of information to update the sampling policy. The very fundamental question raised in this paper concerns the behavior of empirical sums based on AIS. Without making any assumption on the \textit{allocation policy} $n_t$, the theory developed involves no restriction on the split of computational resources between the explore (i) and the exploit (ii) step. It is shown that AIS is asymptotically optimal : the asymptotic behavior of AIS is the same as some ``oracle'' strategy that knows the targeted sampling policy from the beginning. From a practical perspective, weighted AIS is introduced, a new method that allows to forget poor samples from early stages.

It is well known that the problems of stochastic planning and probabilistic inference are closely related. This paper makes two contributions in this context. The first is to provide an analysis of the recently developed SOGBOFA heuristic planning algorithm that was shown to be effective for problems with large factored state and action spaces. It is shown that SOGBOFA can be seen as a specialized inference algorithm that computes its solutions through a combination of a symbolic variant of belief propagation and gradient ascent. The second contribution is a new solver for Marginal MAP (MMAP) inference. We introduce a new reduction from MMAP to maximum expected utility problems which are suitable for the symbolic computation in SOGBOFA. This yields a novel algebraic gradient-based solver (AGS) for MMAP. An experimental evaluation illustrates the potential of AGS in solving difficult MMAP problems.

Inference amortization methods share information across multiple posterior-inference problems, allowing each to be carried out more efficiently. Generally, they require the inversion of the dependency structure in the generative model, as the modeller must learn a mapping from observations to distributions approximating the posterior. Previous approaches have involved inverting the dependency structure in a heuristic way that fails to capture these dependencies correctly, thereby limiting the achievable accuracy of the resulting approximations. We introduce an algorithm for faithfully, and minimally, inverting the graphical model structure of any generative model. Such inverses have two crucial properties: (a) they do not encode any independence assertions that are absent from the model and; (b) they are local maxima for the number of true independencies encoded. We prove the correctness of our approach and empirically show that the resulting minimally faithful inverses lead to better inference amortization than existing heuristic approaches.

We introduce a principled approach for unsupervised structure learning of deep neural networks. We propose a new interpretation for depth and inter-layer connectivity where conditional independencies in the input distribution are encoded hierarchically in the network structure. Thus, the depth of the network is determined inherently. The proposed method casts the problem of neural network structure learning as a problem of Bayesian network structure learning. Then, instead of directly learning the discriminative structure, it learns a generative graph, constructs its stochastic inverse, and then constructs a discriminative graph. We prove that conditional-dependency relations among the latent variables in the generative graph are preserved in the class-conditional discriminative graph. We demonstrate on image classification benchmarks that the deepest layers (convolutional and dense) of common networks can be replaced by significantly smaller learned structures, while maintaining classification accuracy---state-of-the-art on tested benchmarks. Our structure learning algorithm requires a small computational cost and runs efficiently on a standard desktop CPU.

Motivated by the success of reinforcement learning (RL) for discrete-time tasks such as AlphaGo and Atari games, there has been a recent surge of interest in using RL for continuous-time control of physical systems (cf. many challenging tasks in OpenAI Gym and DeepMind Control Suite). Since discretization of time is susceptible to error, it is methodologically more desirable to handle the system dynamics directly in continuous time. However, very few techniques exist for continuous-time RL and they lack flexibility in value function approximation. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for model-based continuous-time value function approximation in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The resulting framework is so flexible that it can accommodate any kind of kernel-based approach, such as Gaussian processes and kernel adaptive filters, and it allows us to handle uncertainties and nonstationarity without prior knowledge about the environment or what basis functions to employ. We demonstrate the validity of the presented framework through experiments.

Understanding how humans and animals learn about statistical regularities in stable and volatile environments, and utilize these regularities to make predictions and decisions, is an important problem in neuroscience and psychology. Using a Bayesian modeling framework, specifically the Dynamic Belief Model (DBM), it has previously been shown that humans tend to make the {\it default} assumption that environmental statistics undergo abrupt, unsignaled changes, even when environmental statistics are actually stable. Because exact Bayesian inference in this setting, an example of switching state space models, is computationally intense, a number of approximately Bayesian and heuristic algorithms have been proposed to account for learning/prediction in the brain. Here, we examine a neurally plausible algorithm, a special case of leaky integration dynamics we denote as EXP (for exponential filtering), that is significantly simpler than all previously suggested algorithms except for the delta-learning rule, and which far outperforms the delta rule in approximating Bayesian prediction performance. We derive the theoretical relationship between DBM and EXP, and show that EXP gains computational efficiency by foregoing the representation of inferential uncertainty (as does the delta rule), but that it nevertheless achieves near-Bayesian performance due to its ability to incorporate a "persistent prior" influence unique to DBM and absent from the other algorithms. Furthermore, we show that EXP is comparable to DBM but better than all other models in reproducing human behavior in a visual search task, suggesting that human learning and prediction also incorporates an element of persistent prior. More broadly, our work demonstrates that when observations are information-poor, detecting changes or modulating the learning rate is both {\it difficult} and (thus) {\it unnecessary} for making Bayes-optimal predictions.

The lasso and elastic net linear regression models impose a double-exponential prior distribution on the model parameters to achieve regression shrinkage and variable selection, allowing the inference of robust models from large data sets. However, there has been limited success in deriving estimates for the full posterior distribution of regression coefficients in these models, due to a need to evaluate analytically intractable partition function integrals. Here, the Fourier transform is used to express these integrals as complex-valued oscillatory integrals over "regression frequencies". This results in an analytic expansion and stationary phase approximation for the partition functions of the Bayesian lasso and elastic net, where the non-differentiability of the double-exponential prior has so far eluded such an approach. Use of this approximation leads to highly accurate numerical estimates for the expectation values and marginal posterior distributions of the regression coefficients, and allows for Bayesian inference of much higher dimensional models than previously possible.