We investigate the problem of learning Bayesian networks in a robust model where an $\epsilon$-fraction of the samples are adversarially corrupted. In this work, we study the fully observable discrete case where the structure of the network is given. Even in this basic setting, previous learning algorithms either run in exponential time or lose dimension-dependent factors in their error guarantees. We provide the first computationally efficient robust learning algorithm for this problem with dimension-independent error guarantees. Our algorithm has near-optimal sample complexity, runs in polynomial time, and achieves error that scales nearly-linearly with the fraction of adversarially corrupted samples. Finally, we show on both synthetic and semi-synthetic data that our algorithm performs well in practice.

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an important methodology for Bayesian inference when the likelihood function is intractable. Sampling-based ABC algorithms such as rejection- and K2-ABC are inefficient when the parameters have high dimensions, while the regression-based algorithms such as K- and DR-ABC are hard to scale. In this paper, we introduce an optimization-based ABC framework that addresses these deficiencies. Leveraging a generative model for posterior and joint distribution matching, we show that ABC can be framed as saddle point problems, whose objectives can be accessed directly with samples. We present the predictive ABC algorithm (P-ABC), and provide a probabilistically approximately correct (PAC) bound that guarantees its learning consistency. Numerical experiment shows that P-ABC outperforms both K2- and DR-ABC significantly.

Backpropagation and the chain rule of derivatives have been prominent; however, the total derivative rule has not enjoyed the same amount of attention. In this work we show how the total derivative rule leads to an intuitive visual framework for creating gradient estimators on graphical models. In particular, previous ”policy gradient theorems” are easily derived. We derive new gradient estimators based on density estimation, as well as a likelihood ratio gradient, which ”jumps” to an intermediate node, not directly to the objective function. We evaluate our methods on model-based policy gradient algorithms, achieve good performance, and present evidence towards demystifying the success of the popular PILCO algorithm.

Spectral estimation (SE) aims to identify how the energy of a signal (e.g., a time series) is distributed across different frequencies. This can become particularly challenging when only partial and noisy observations of the signal are available, where current methods fail to handle uncertainty appropriately. In this context, we propose a joint probabilistic model for signals, observations and spectra, where SE is addressed as an inference problem. Assuming a Gaussian process prior over the signal, we apply Bayes' rule to find the analytic posterior distribution of the spectrum given a set of observations. Besides its expressiveness and natural account of spectral uncertainty, the proposed model also provides a functional-form representation of the power spectral density, which can be optimised efficiently. Comparison with previous approaches is addressed theoretically, showing that the proposed method is an infinite-dimensional variant of the Lomb-Scargle approach, and also empirically through three experiments.

Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient approach to global optimization that relies on theoretically motivated value heuristics (acquisition functions) to guide its search process. Fully maximizing acquisition functions produces the Bayes' decision rule, but this ideal is difficult to achieve since these functions are frequently non-trivial to optimize. This statement is especially true when evaluating queries in parallel, where acquisition functions are routinely non-convex, high-dimensional, and intractable. We first show that acquisition functions estimated via Monte Carlo integration are consistently amenable to gradient-based optimization. Subsequently, we identify a common family of acquisition functions, including EI and UCB, whose characteristics not only facilitate but justify use of greedy approaches for their maximization.

Can evolving networks be inferred and modeled without directly observing their nodes and edges? In many applications, the edges of a dynamic network might not be observed, but one can observe the dynamics of stochastic cascading processes (e.g., information diffusion, virus propagation) occurring over the unobserved network. While there have been efforts to infer networks based on such data, providing a generative probabilistic model that is able to identify the underlying time-varying network remains an open question. Here we consider the problem of inferring generative dynamic network models based on network cascade diffusion data. We propose a novel framework for providing a non-parametric dynamic network model---based on a mixture of coupled hierarchical Dirichlet processes---based on data capturing cascade node infection times. Our approach allows us to infer the evolving community structure in networks and to obtain an explicit predictive distribution over the edges of the underlying network---including those that were not involved in transmission of any cascade, or are likely to appear in the future. We show the effectiveness of our approach using extensive experiments on synthetic as well as real-world networks.

Variational inference plays a vital role in learning graphical models, especially on large-scale datasets. Much of its success depends on a proper choice of auxiliary distribution class for posterior approximation. However, how to pursue an auxiliary distribution class that achieves both good approximation ability and computation efficiency remains a core challenge. In this paper, we proposed coupled variational Bayes which exploits the primal-dual view of the ELBO with the variational distribution class generated by an optimization procedure, which is termed optimization embedding. This flexible function class couples the variational distribution with the original parameters in the graphical models, allowing end-to-end learning of the graphical models by back-propagation through the variational distribution. Theoretically, we establish an interesting connection to gradient flow and demonstrate the extreme flexibility of this implicit distribution family in the limit sense. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method on multiple graphical models with either continuous or discrete latent variables comparing to state-of-the-art methods.

Learning to make decisions from observed data in dynamic environments remains a problem of fundamental importance in a numbers of fields, from artificial intelligence and robotics, to medicine and finance. This paper concerns the problem of learning control policies for unknown linear dynamical systems so as to maximize a quadratic reward function. We present a method to optimize the expected value of the reward over the posterior distribution of the unknown system parameters, given data. The algorithm involves sequential convex programing, and enjoys reliable local convergence and robust stability guarantees. Numerical simulations and stabilization of a real-world inverted pendulum are used to demonstrate the approach, with strong performance and robustness properties observed in both.

Potential based reward shaping is a powerful technique for accelerating convergence of reinforcement learning algorithms. Typically, such information includes an estimate of the optimal value function and is often provided by a human expert or other sources of domain knowledge. However, this information is often biased or inaccurate and can mislead many reinforcement learning algorithms. In this paper, we apply Bayesian Model Combination with multiple experts in a way that learns to trust a good combination of experts as training progresses. This approach is both computationally efficient and general, and is shown numerically to improve convergence across discrete and continuous domains and different reinforcement learning algorithms.

Meta-learning for few-shot learning entails acquiring a prior over previous tasks and experiences, such that new tasks be learned from small amounts of data. However, a critical challenge in few-shot learning is task ambiguity: even when a powerful prior can be meta-learned from a large number of prior tasks, a small dataset for a new task can simply be too ambiguous to acquire a single model (e.g., a classifier) for that task that is accurate. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic meta-learning algorithm that can sample models for a new task from a model distribution. Our approach extends model-agnostic meta-learning, which adapts to new tasks via gradient descent, to incorporate a parameter distribution that is trained via a variational lower bound. At meta-test time, our algorithm adapts via a simple procedure that injects noise into gradient descent, and at meta-training time, the model is trained such that this stochastic adaptation procedure produces samples from the approximate model posterior. Our experimental results show that our method can sample plausible classifiers and regressors in ambiguous few-shot learning problems. We also show how reasoning about ambiguity can also be used for downstream active learning problems.