We address the problem of Bayesian structure learning for domains with hundreds of variables by employing non-parametric bootstrap, recursively. We propose a method that covers both model averaging and model selection in the same framework. The proposed method deals with the main weakness of constraint-based learning---sensitivity to errors in the independence tests---by a novel way of combining bootstrap with constraint-based learning. Essentially, we provide an algorithm for learning a tree, in which each node represents a scored CPDAG for a subset of variables and the level of the node corresponds to the maximal order of conditional independencies that are encoded in the graph. As higher order independencies are tested in deeper recursive calls, they benefit from more bootstrap samples, and therefore are more resistant to the curse-of-dimensionality. Moreover, the re-use of stable low order independencies allows greater computational efficiency. We also provide an algorithm for sampling CPDAGs efficiently from their posterior given the learned tree. That is, not from the full posterior, but from a reduced space of CPDAGs encoded in the learned tree. We empirically demonstrate that the proposed algorithm scales well to hundreds of variables, and learns better MAP models and more reliable causal relationships between variables, than other state-of-the-art-methods.

The broad set of deep generative models (DGMs) has achieved remarkable advances. However, it is often difficult to incorporate rich structured domain knowledge with the end-to-end DGMs. Posterior regularization (PR) offers a principled framework to impose structured constraints on probabilistic models, but has limited applicability to the diverse DGMs that can lack a Bayesian formulation or even explicit density evaluation. PR also requires constraints to be fully specified {\it a priori}, which is impractical or suboptimal for complex knowledge with learnable uncertain parts. In this paper, we establish mathematical correspondence between PR and reinforcement learning (RL), and, based on the connection, expand PR to learn constraints as the extrinsic reward in RL. The resulting algorithm is model-agnostic to apply to any DGMs, and is flexible to adapt arbitrary constraints with the model jointly. Experiments on human image generation and templated sentence generation show models with learned knowledge constraints by our algorithm greatly improve over base generative models.

Bayesian optimization usually assumes that a Bayesian prior is given. However, the strong theoretical guarantees in Bayesian optimization are often regrettably compromised in practice because of unknown parameters in the prior. In this paper, we adopt a variant of empirical Bayes and show that, by estimating the Gaussian process prior from offline data sampled from the same prior and constructing unbiased estimators of the posterior, variants of both GP-UCB and \emph{probability of improvement} achieve a near-zero regret bound, which decreases to a constant proportional to the observational noise as the number of offline data and the number of online evaluations increase. Empirically, we have verified our approach on challenging simulated robotic problems featuring task and motion planning.

Quantum Graphical Models (QGMs) generalize classical graphical models by adopting the formalism for reasoning about uncertainty from quantum mechanics. Unlike classical graphical models, QGMs represent uncertainty with density matrices in complex Hilbert spaces. Hilbert space embeddings (HSEs) also generalize Bayesian inference in Hilbert spaces. We investigate the link between QGMs and HSEs and show that the sum rule and Bayes rule for QGMs are equivalent to the kernel sum rule in HSEs and a special case of Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression, respectively. We show that these operations can be kernelized, and use these insights to propose a Hilbert Space Embedding of Hidden Quantum Markov Models (HSE-HQMM) to model dynamics. We present experimental results showing that HSE-HQMMs are competitive with state-of-the-art models like LSTMs and PSRNNs on several datasets, while also providing a nonparametric method for maintaining a probability distribution over continuous-valued features.

Many graphical models, such as Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) with evidence, possess highly symmetric substructures but no exact symmetries. Unfortunately, there are few principled methods that exploit these symmetric substructures to perform efficient approximate inference. In this paper, we present a lifted variant of the Weighted Mini-Bucket elimination algorithm which provides a principled way to (i) exploit the highly symmetric substructure of MLN models, and (ii) incorporate high-order inference terms which are necessary for high quality approximate inference. Our method has significant control over the accuracy-time trade-off of the approximation, allowing us to generate any-time approximations. Experimental results demonstrate the utility of this class of approximations, especially in models with strong repulsive potentials.

We investigate the problem of learning Bayesian networks in a robust model where an $\epsilon$-fraction of the samples are adversarially corrupted. In this work, we study the fully observable discrete case where the structure of the network is given. Even in this basic setting, previous learning algorithms either run in exponential time or lose dimension-dependent factors in their error guarantees. We provide the first computationally efficient robust learning algorithm for this problem with dimension-independent error guarantees. Our algorithm has near-optimal sample complexity, runs in polynomial time, and achieves error that scales nearly-linearly with the fraction of adversarially corrupted samples. Finally, we show on both synthetic and semi-synthetic data that our algorithm performs well in practice.

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an important methodology for Bayesian inference when the likelihood function is intractable. Sampling-based ABC algorithms such as rejection- and K2-ABC are inefficient when the parameters have high dimensions, while the regression-based algorithms such as K- and DR-ABC are hard to scale. In this paper, we introduce an optimization-based ABC framework that addresses these deficiencies. Leveraging a generative model for posterior and joint distribution matching, we show that ABC can be framed as saddle point problems, whose objectives can be accessed directly with samples. We present the predictive ABC algorithm (P-ABC), and provide a probabilistically approximately correct (PAC) bound that guarantees its learning consistency. Numerical experiment shows that P-ABC outperforms both K2- and DR-ABC significantly.

Backpropagation and the chain rule of derivatives have been prominent; however, the total derivative rule has not enjoyed the same amount of attention. In this work we show how the total derivative rule leads to an intuitive visual framework for creating gradient estimators on graphical models. In particular, previous ”policy gradient theorems” are easily derived. We derive new gradient estimators based on density estimation, as well as a likelihood ratio gradient, which ”jumps” to an intermediate node, not directly to the objective function. We evaluate our methods on model-based policy gradient algorithms, achieve good performance, and present evidence towards demystifying the success of the popular PILCO algorithm.

Spectral estimation (SE) aims to identify how the energy of a signal (e.g., a time series) is distributed across different frequencies. This can become particularly challenging when only partial and noisy observations of the signal are available, where current methods fail to handle uncertainty appropriately. In this context, we propose a joint probabilistic model for signals, observations and spectra, where SE is addressed as an inference problem. Assuming a Gaussian process prior over the signal, we apply Bayes' rule to find the analytic posterior distribution of the spectrum given a set of observations. Besides its expressiveness and natural account of spectral uncertainty, the proposed model also provides a functional-form representation of the power spectral density, which can be optimised efficiently. Comparison with previous approaches is addressed theoretically, showing that the proposed method is an infinite-dimensional variant of the Lomb-Scargle approach, and also empirically through three experiments.

Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient approach to global optimization that relies on theoretically motivated value heuristics (acquisition functions) to guide its search process. Fully maximizing acquisition functions produces the Bayes' decision rule, but this ideal is difficult to achieve since these functions are frequently non-trivial to optimize. This statement is especially true when evaluating queries in parallel, where acquisition functions are routinely non-convex, high-dimensional, and intractable. We first show that acquisition functions estimated via Monte Carlo integration are consistently amenable to gradient-based optimization. Subsequently, we identify a common family of acquisition functions, including EI and UCB, whose characteristics not only facilitate but justify use of greedy approaches for their maximization.