We study sparse semi-continuous tensor data with excess zeros, heavy right tails, and slice-specific dispersion. Such features arise naturally in monetary-valued multi-way data, such as international trade, where most exporter--importer--product--year cells are zero while positive values are continuous and highly variable. To model these data, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical tensor factorization model that places a low-rank CP structure on a latent Poisson rate tensor and couples it with a conditional Gamma model for positive outcomes, with rate parameters that can vary across slices within a mode. The model therefore separates the occurrence and magnitude of positive observations while borrowing strength across all tensor dimensions through a shared low-rank latent structure. To scale posterior inference to large arrays, we develop a hybrid variational--Monte Carlo algorithm that combines efficient coordinate ascent updates with a partially collapsed augmented-data sampler. Applied to approximately 60 million trade flows, the method surfaces multiway dependence across exporters, importers, products, and years that is difficult to recover from gravity-type or pairwise network analyses, which do not jointly model the product and temporal dimensions.

We propose a framework for hypothesis testing on conditional probability distributions, which we then use to construct statistical tests of functionals of conditional distributions. These tests identify the inputs where the functionals differ with high probability, and include tests of conditional moments or two-sample tests. Our key idea is to transform confidence bounds of a learning method into a test of conditional expectations.

Matrix factorization is a fundamental method in statistics and machine learning for inferring and summarizing structure in multivariate data. Modern data sets often come with "side information" of various forms (images, text, graphs) that can be leveraged to improve estimation of the underlying structure. However, existing methods that leverage side information are limited in the types of data they can incorporate, and they assume specific parametric models. Here, we introduce a novel method for this problem, covariate-moderated empirical Bayes matrix factorization (cEBMF).

We study the reinforcement learning (RL) problem in a constrained Markov decision process (CMDP), where an agent explores the environment to maximize the expected cumulative reward while satisfying a single constraint on the expected total utility value in every episode. While this problem is well understood in the tabular setting, theoretical results for function approximation remain scarce. This paper closes the gap by proposing an RL algorithm for linear CMDPs that achieves eO( K) regret with an episode-wise zero-violation guarantee. Furthermore, our method is computationally efficient, scaling polynomially with problem-dependent parameters while remaining independent of the state space size. Our results significantly improve upon recent linear CMDP algorithms, which either violate the constraint or incur exponential computational costs.

The integration of logic programs with embedding models resulted in a class of neurosymbolic frameworks that jointly learn symbolic rules and representations for the symbols in the logic (constant or predicate). The key idea that enabled this integration was the differentiable relaxation of unification, the algorithm for variable instantiation during inference in logic programs. Unlike unification, its relaxed counterpart exploits the similarity between symbols in the embedding space to decide when two symbols are semantically equivalent. We show that this similarity between symbols violates the transitive law of equivalence, leading to undesirable side effects in learning and inference. To alleviate those side effects, we are the first to revamp the well-known possible world semantics of probabilistic logic programs into new semantics called equivalence semantics. In our semantics, a probabilistic logic program induces a probability distribution over all possible equivalence relations between symbols, instead of a probability distribution over all possible subsets of probabilistic facts. We propose a factorization of the equivalence distribution using latent random variables and characterize its expressivity. Additionally, we propose both exact and approximate techniques for reasoning in our semantics. Experiments on well-known benchmarks show that the equivalence semantics leads to neurosymbolic models with up to 42% higher results than state-of-the-art baselines.

With the advancing reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), they are increasingly employed for complex evaluation tasks, such as grading student responses, verifying factual claims, and comparing competing answers. Leveraging multiple LLMs as automated judges can enhance robustness and accuracy by aggregating diverse perspectives, yet existing approaches often rely on static and simple aggregation methods, such as majority voting, which may produce incorrect judgments despite correct individual assessments. We propose a novel multiagent debate framework where LLMs collaboratively reason and iteratively refine judgments, formalizing this process mathematically and proving its advantages over static ensembles. To ensure computational efficiency, we introduce a stability detection mechanism using a time-varying Beta-Binomial mixture model (a mixture of two Beta-Binomial distributions) that tracks judge consensus dynamics and applies adaptive stopping via Kolmogorov-Smirnov testing. Experiments across diverse benchmarks and models demonstrate significant improvements in judgment accuracy over majority voting while maintaining computational efficiency.

Simpson's paradox poses a challenge in probabilistic inference and decisionmaking. Our study revisits the paradox by re-estimating its frequency with an unbiased data generation process and reaffirms that it is not an artifact of deficient data collection. Thus, it can lead to incorrect recommendations in fields as diverse as statistics, psychology, and artificial intelligence. We show that the paradox can be resolved by assuming a minimal -- though not necessarily observed -- common cause (or screening) variable for the involved random variables. In our approach, conditioning on this minimal common cause establishes the correct association between events, which coincides with the conditioning (i.e., fine-grained) option of the original Simpson paradox. This resolution applies to both discrete cases of binary variables and continuous settings modeled by Gaussian variables. For a non-minimal common cause, the resolution of the paradox is possible, but detailed knowledge of the common cause is required. Our findings extend traditional understandings of the paradox and offer practical guidance for resolving apparent contradictions in probabilistic inference, ultimately enhancing decision-making processes. This point is illustrated by several examples.

A fundamental challenge in probabilistic modeling is to balance expressivity and inference efficiency. Tractable probabilistic models (TPMs) aim to directly address this tradeoff by imposing constraints that guarantee efficient inference of certain queries while maintaining expressivity. In particular, probabilistic circuits (PCs) provide a unifying framework for many TPMs, by characterizing families of models as circuits satisfying different structural properties. Because the complexity of inference on PCs is a function of the circuit size, understanding the size requirements of different families of PCs is fundamental in mapping the trade-off between tractability and expressive efficiency. However, the study of expressive efficiency of circuits are often concerned with exact representations, which may not align with model learning, where we look to approximate the underlying data distribution closely by some distance measure.

Dynamic pricing algorithms typically assume continuous price variables, which may not reflect real-world scenarios where prices are often discrete. This paper demonstrates that leveraging discrete price information within a semi-parametric model can substantially improve performance, depending on the size of the support set of the price variable relative to the time horizon. Specifically, we propose a novel semi-parametric contextual dynamic pricing algorithm, namely BayesCoxCP, based on a Bayesian approach to the Cox proportional hazards model. Our theoretical analysis establishes high-probability regret bounds that adapt to the sparsity level γ, proving that our algorithm achieves a regret upper bound of eO(T(1+γ)/2 + dT) for γ < 1/3 and eO(T2/3 + dT) for γ 1/3, where γ represents the sparsity of the price grid relative to the time horizon T. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed algorithm significantly outperforms an existing method, particularly in scenarios with sparse discrete price points.

Estimating the uncertainty of responses from Large Language Models (LLMs) remains a critical challenge. While recent Bayesian methods have demonstrated effectiveness in quantifying uncertainty through low-rank weight updates, they typically require complex fine-tuning or post-training procedures. In this paper, we propose Training-Free Bayesianization (TFB), a simple yet theoretically grounded framework that efficiently transforms trained low-rank adapters into Bayesian ones without additional training. TFBsystematically searches for the maximally acceptable level of variance in the weight posterior, constrained within a family of low-rank isotropic Gaussian distributions. Our theoretical analysis shows that under mild conditions, this search process is equivalent to KL-regularized variational optimization, a generalized form of variational inference. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that TFB achieves superior uncertainty estimation and generalization compared to existing methods while eliminating the need for complex Bayesianization training procedures.