Discovering the causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many areas of science. In this paper, we propose Kernel Conditional Deviance for Causal Inference (KCDC) a fully nonparametric causal discovery method based on purely observational data. From a novel interpretation of the notion of asymmetry between cause and effect, we derive a corresponding asymmetry measure using the framework of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Based on this, we propose three decision rules for causal discovery. We demonstrate the wide applicability and robustness of our method across a range of diverse synthetic datasets. Furthermore, we test our method on real-world time series data and the real-world benchmark dataset Tübingen Cause-Effect Pairs where we outperform state-of-the-art approaches.

We consider the problem of transferring value functions in reinforcement learning. We propose an approach that uses the given source tasks to learn a prior distribution over optimal value functions and provide to an efficient variational approximation of the corresponding posterior in a new target task. We show our approach to be general, in the sense that it can be combined with complex parametric function approximators and distribution models, while providing two practical algorithms based on Gaussians and Gaussian mixtures. We theoretically analyze them by deriving a finite-sample analysis and provide a comprehensive empirical evaluation in four different domains.

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a widely deployed method to sample from high-dimensional distributions in Statistics and Machine learning. HMC is known to run very efficiently in practice and its popular second-order ``leapfrog" implementation has long been conjectured to run in $d^{1/4}$ gradient evaluations. Here we show that this conjecture is true when sampling from strongly log-concave target distributions that satisfy a weak third-order regularity property associated with the input data. Our regularity condition is weaker than the Lipschitz Hessian property and allows us to show faster convergence bounds for a much larger class of distributions than would be possible with the usual Lipschitz Hessian constant alone. Important distributions that satisfy our regularity condition include posterior distributions used in Bayesian logistic regression for which the data satisfies an ``incoherence" property. Our result compares favorably with the best available bounds for the class of strongly log-concave distributions, which grow like $d^{{1}/{2}}$ gradient evaluations with the dimension. Moreover, our simulations on synthetic data suggest that, when our regularity condition is satisfied, leapfrog HMC performs better than its competitors -- both in terms of accuracy and in terms of the number of gradient evaluations it requires.

This paper studies the problem of deriving fast and accurate classification algorithms with uncertainty quantification. Gaussian process classification provides a principled approach, but the corresponding computational burden is hardly sustainable in large-scale problems and devising efficient alternatives is a challenge. In this work, we investigate if and how Gaussian process regression directly applied to classification labels can be used to tackle this question. While in this case training is remarkably faster, predictions need to be calibrated for classification and uncertainty estimation. To this aim, we propose a novel regression approach where the labels are obtained through the interpretation of classification labels as the coefficients of a degenerate Dirichlet distribution. Extensive experimental results show that the proposed approach provides essentially the same accuracy and uncertainty quantification as Gaussian process classification while requiring only a fraction of computational resources.

It is important to learn various types of classifiers given training data with noisy labels. Noisy labels, in the most popular noise model hitherto, are corrupted from ground-truth labels by an unknown noise transition matrix. Thus, by estimating this matrix, classifiers can escape from overfitting those noisy labels. However, such estimation is practically difficult, due to either the indirect nature of two-step approaches, or not big enough data to afford end-to-end approaches. In this paper, we propose a human-assisted approach called ''Masking'' that conveys human cognition of invalid class transitions and naturally speculates the structure of the noise transition matrix. To this end, we derive a structure-aware probabilistic model incorporating a structure prior, and solve the challenges from structure extraction and structure alignment. Thanks to Masking, we only estimate unmasked noise transition probabilities and the burden of estimation is tremendously reduced. We conduct extensive experiments on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 with three noise structures as well as the industrial-level Clothing1M with agnostic noise structure, and the results show that Masking can improve the robustness of classifiers significantly.

Large amounts of labeled data are typically required to train deep learning models. For many real-world problems, however, acquiring additional data can be expensive or even impossible. We present semi-supervised deep kernel learning (SSDKL), a semi-supervised regression model based on minimizing predictive variance in the posterior regularization framework. SSDKL combines the hierarchical representation learning of neural networks with the probabilistic modeling capabilities of Gaussian processes. By leveraging unlabeled data, we show improvements on a diverse set of real-world regression tasks over supervised deep kernel learning and semi-supervised methods such as VAT and mean teacher adapted for regression.

Stimulus-driven brain-computer interfaces (BCIs), such as the P300 speller, rely on using a sequence of sensory stimuli to elicit specific neural responses as control signals, while a user attends to relevant target stimuli that occur within the sequence. In current BCIs, the stimulus presentation schedule is typically generated in a pseudo-random fashion. Given the non-stationarity of brain electrical signals, a better strategy could be to adapt the stimulus presentation schedule in real-time by selecting the optimal stimuli that will maximize the signal-to-noise ratios of the elicited neural responses and provide the most information about the user's intent based on the uncertainties of the data being measured. However, the high-dimensional stimulus space limits the development of algorithms with tractable solutions for optimized stimulus selection to allow for real-time decision-making within the stringent time requirements of BCI processing. We derive a simple analytical solution of an information-based objective function for BCI stimulus selection by transforming the high-dimensional stimulus space into a one-dimensional space that parameterizes the objective function - the prior probability mass of the stimulus under consideration, irrespective of its contents. We demonstrate the utility of our adaptive stimulus selection algorithm in improving BCI performance with results from simulation and real-time human experiments.

Recent work used importance sampling ideas for better variational bounds on likelihoods. We clarify the applicability of these ideas to pure probabilistic inference, by showing the resulting Importance Weighted Variational Inference (IWVI) technique is an instance of augmented variational inference, thus identifying the looseness in previous work. Experiments confirm IWVI's practicality for probabilistic inference. As a second contribution, we investigate inference with elliptical distributions, which improves accuracy in low dimensions, and convergence in high dimensions.

The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular model for density estimation and representation learning. Canonically, the variational principle suggests to prefer an expressive inference model so that the variational approximation is accurate. However, it is often overlooked that an overly-expressive inference model can be detrimental to the test set performance of both the amortized posterior approximator and, more importantly, the generative density estimator. In this paper, we leverage the fact that VAEs rely on amortized inference and propose techniques for amortized inference regularization (AIR) that control the smoothness of the inference model. We demonstrate that, by applying AIR, it is possible to improve VAE generalization on both inference and generative performance. Our paper challenges the belief that amortized inference is simply a mechanism for approximating maximum likelihood training and illustrates that regularization of the amortization family provides a new direction for understanding and improving generalization in VAEs.

A theoretical performance analysis of the graph neural network (GNN) is presented. For classification tasks, the neural network approach has the advantage in terms of flexibility that it can be employed in a data-driven manner, whereas Bayesian inference requires the assumption of a specific model. A fundamental question is then whether GNN has a high accuracy in addition to this flexibility. Moreover, whether the achieved performance is predominately a result of the backpropagation or the architecture itself is a matter of considerable interest. To gain a better insight into these questions, a mean-field theory of a minimal GNN architecture is developed for the graph partitioning problem. This demonstrates a good agreement with numerical experiments.