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 Uncertainty


Semi-supervised Deep Kernel Learning: Regression with Unlabeled Data by Minimizing Predictive Variance

Neural Information Processing Systems

Large amounts of labeled data are typically required to train deep learning models. For many real-world problems, however, acquiring additional data can be expensive or even impossible. We present semi-supervised deep kernel learning (SSDKL), a semi-supervised regression model based on minimizing predictive variance in the posterior regularization framework. SSDKL combines the hierarchical representation learning of neural networks with the probabilistic modeling capabilities of Gaussian processes. By leveraging unlabeled data, we show improvements on a diverse set of real-world regression tasks over supervised deep kernel learning and semi-supervised methods such as VAT and mean teacher adapted for regression.


Information-based Adaptive Stimulus Selection to Optimize Communication Efficiency in Brain-Computer Interfaces

Neural Information Processing Systems

Stimulus-driven brain-computer interfaces (BCIs), such as the P300 speller, rely on using a sequence of sensory stimuli to elicit specific neural responses as control signals, while a user attends to relevant target stimuli that occur within the sequence. In current BCIs, the stimulus presentation schedule is typically generated in a pseudo-random fashion. Given the non-stationarity of brain electrical signals, a better strategy could be to adapt the stimulus presentation schedule in real-time by selecting the optimal stimuli that will maximize the signal-to-noise ratios of the elicited neural responses and provide the most information about the user's intent based on the uncertainties of the data being measured. However, the high-dimensional stimulus space limits the development of algorithms with tractable solutions for optimized stimulus selection to allow for real-time decision-making within the stringent time requirements of BCI processing. We derive a simple analytical solution of an information-based objective function for BCI stimulus selection by transforming the high-dimensional stimulus space into a one-dimensional space that parameterizes the objective function - the prior probability mass of the stimulus under consideration, irrespective of its contents. We demonstrate the utility of our adaptive stimulus selection algorithm in improving BCI performance with results from simulation and real-time human experiments.


Importance Weighting and Variational Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Recent work used importance sampling ideas for better variational bounds on likelihoods. We clarify the applicability of these ideas to pure probabilistic inference, by showing the resulting Importance Weighted Variational Inference (IWVI) technique is an instance of augmented variational inference, thus identifying the looseness in previous work. Experiments confirm IWVI's practicality for probabilistic inference. As a second contribution, we investigate inference with elliptical distributions, which improves accuracy in low dimensions, and convergence in high dimensions.


Amortized Inference Regularization

Neural Information Processing Systems

The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular model for density estimation and representation learning. Canonically, the variational principle suggests to prefer an expressive inference model so that the variational approximation is accurate. However, it is often overlooked that an overly-expressive inference model can be detrimental to the test set performance of both the amortized posterior approximator and, more importantly, the generative density estimator. In this paper, we leverage the fact that VAEs rely on amortized inference and propose techniques for amortized inference regularization (AIR) that control the smoothness of the inference model. We demonstrate that, by applying AIR, it is possible to improve VAE generalization on both inference and generative performance. Our paper challenges the belief that amortized inference is simply a mechanism for approximating maximum likelihood training and illustrates that regularization of the amortization family provides a new direction for understanding and improving generalization in VAEs.


Mean-field theory of graph neural networks in graph partitioning

Neural Information Processing Systems

A theoretical performance analysis of the graph neural network (GNN) is presented. For classification tasks, the neural network approach has the advantage in terms of flexibility that it can be employed in a data-driven manner, whereas Bayesian inference requires the assumption of a specific model. A fundamental question is then whether GNN has a high accuracy in addition to this flexibility. Moreover, whether the achieved performance is predominately a result of the backpropagation or the architecture itself is a matter of considerable interest. To gain a better insight into these questions, a mean-field theory of a minimal GNN architecture is developed for the graph partitioning problem. This demonstrates a good agreement with numerical experiments.


Meta-Learning MCMC Proposals

Neural Information Processing Systems

Effective implementations of sampling-based probabilistic inference often require manually constructed, model-specific proposals. Inspired by recent progresses in meta-learning for training learning agents that can generalize to unseen environments, we propose a meta-learning approach to building effective and generalizable MCMC proposals. We parametrize the proposal as a neural network to provide fast approximations to block Gibbs conditionals. The learned neural proposals generalize to occurrences of common structural motifs across different models, allowing for the construction of a library of learned inference primitives that can accelerate inference on unseen models with no model-specific training required. We explore several applications including open-universe Gaussian mixture models, in which our learned proposals outperform a hand-tuned sampler, and a real-world named entity recognition task, in which our sampler yields higher final F1 scores than classical single-site Gibbs sampling.


Bayesian Inference of Temporal Task Specifications from Demonstrations

Neural Information Processing Systems

When observing task demonstrations, human apprentices are able to identify whether a given task is executed correctly long before they gain expertise in actually performing that task. Prior research into learning from demonstrations (LfD) has failed to capture this notion of the acceptability of an execution; meanwhile, temporal logics provide a flexible language for expressing task specifications. Inspired by this, we present Bayesian specification inference, a probabilistic model for inferring task specification as a temporal logic formula. We incorporate methods from probabilistic programming to define our priors, along with a domain-independent likelihood function to enable sampling-based inference. We demonstrate the efficacy of our model for inferring true specifications with over 90% similarity between the inferred specification and the ground truth, both within a synthetic domain and a real-world table setting task.


Boosting Black Box Variational Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Approximating a probability density in a tractable manner is a central task in Bayesian statistics. Variational Inference (VI) is a popular technique that achieves tractability by choosing a relatively simple variational approximation. Borrowing ideas from the classic boosting framework, recent approaches attempt to \emph{boost} VI by replacing the selection of a single density with an iteratively constructed mixture of densities. In order to guarantee convergence, previous works impose stringent assumptions that require significant effort for practitioners. Specifically, they require a custom implementation of the greedy step (called the LMO) for every probabilistic model with respect to an unnatural variational family of truncated distributions. Our work fixes these issues with novel theoretical and algorithmic insights. On the theoretical side, we show that boosting VI satisfies a relaxed smoothness assumption which is sufficient for the convergence of the functional Frank-Wolfe (FW) algorithm. Furthermore, we rephrase the LMO problem and propose to maximize the Residual ELBO (RELBO) which replaces the standard ELBO optimization in VI. These theoretical enhancements allow for black box implementation of the boosting subroutine. Finally, we present a stopping criterion drawn from the duality gap in the classic FW analyses and exhaustive experiments to illustrate the usefulness of our theoretical and algorithmic contributions.


Constructing Deep Neural Networks by Bayesian Network Structure Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We introduce a principled approach for unsupervised structure learning of deep neural networks. We propose a new interpretation for depth and inter-layer connectivity where conditional independencies in the input distribution are encoded hierarchically in the network structure. Thus, the depth of the network is determined inherently. The proposed method casts the problem of neural network structure learning as a problem of Bayesian network structure learning. Then, instead of directly learning the discriminative structure, it learns a generative graph, constructs its stochastic inverse, and then constructs a discriminative graph. We prove that conditional-dependency relations among the latent variables in the generative graph are preserved in the class-conditional discriminative graph. We demonstrate on image classification benchmarks that the deepest layers (convolutional and dense) of common networks can be replaced by significantly smaller learned structures, while maintaining classification accuracy---state-of-the-art on tested benchmarks. Our structure learning algorithm requires a small computational cost and runs efficiently on a standard desktop CPU.


Continuous-time Value Function Approximation in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces

Neural Information Processing Systems

Motivated by the success of reinforcement learning (RL) for discrete-time tasks such as AlphaGo and Atari games, there has been a recent surge of interest in using RL for continuous-time control of physical systems (cf. many challenging tasks in OpenAI Gym and DeepMind Control Suite). Since discretization of time is susceptible to error, it is methodologically more desirable to handle the system dynamics directly in continuous time. However, very few techniques exist for continuous-time RL and they lack flexibility in value function approximation. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for model-based continuous-time value function approximation in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The resulting framework is so flexible that it can accommodate any kind of kernel-based approach, such as Gaussian processes and kernel adaptive filters, and it allows us to handle uncertainties and nonstationarity without prior knowledge about the environment or what basis functions to employ. We demonstrate the validity of the presented framework through experiments.