Meta-learning for few-shot learning entails acquiring a prior over previous tasks and experiences, such that new tasks be learned from small amounts of data. However, a critical challenge in few-shot learning is task ambiguity: even when a powerful prior can be meta-learned from a large number of prior tasks, a small dataset for a new task can simply be too ambiguous to acquire a single model (e.g., a classifier) for that task that is accurate. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic meta-learning algorithm that can sample models for a new task from a model distribution. Our approach extends model-agnostic meta-learning, which adapts to new tasks via gradient descent, to incorporate a parameter distribution that is trained via a variational lower bound. At meta-test time, our algorithm adapts via a simple procedure that injects noise into gradient descent, and at meta-training time, the model is trained such that this stochastic adaptation procedure produces samples from the approximate model posterior. Our experimental results show that our method can sample plausible classifiers and regressors in ambiguous few-shot learning problems. We also show how reasoning about ambiguity can also be used for downstream active learning problems.

What policy should be employed in a Markov decision process with uncertain parameters? Robust optimization answer to this question is to use rectangular uncertainty sets, which independently reflect available knowledge about each state, and then obtains a decision policy that maximizes expected reward for the worst-case decision process parameters from these uncertainty sets. While this rectangularity is convenient computationally and leads to tractable solutions, it often produces policies that are too conservative in practice, and does not facilitate knowledge transfer between portions of the state space or across related decision processes. In this work, we propose non-rectangular uncertainty sets that bound marginal moments of state-action features defined over entire trajectories through a decision process. This enables generalization to different portions of the state space while retaining appropriate uncertainty of the decision process. We develop algorithms for solving the resulting robust decision problems, which reduce to finding an optimal policy for a mixture of decision processes, and demonstrate the benefits of our approach experimentally.

The count-min sketch is a time- and memory-efficient randomized data structure that provides a point estimate of the number of times an item has appeared in a data stream. The count-min sketch and related hash-based data structures are ubiquitous in systems that must track frequencies of data such as URLs, IP addresses, and language n-grams. We present a Bayesian view on the count-min sketch, using the same data structure, but providing a posterior distribution over the frequencies that characterizes the uncertainty arising from the hash-based approximation. In particular, we take a nonparametric approach and consider tokens generated from a Dirichlet process (DP) random measure, which allows for an unbounded number of unique tokens. Using properties of the DP, we show that it is possible to straightforwardly compute posterior marginals of the unknown true counts and that the modes of these marginals recover the count-min sketch estimator, inheriting the associated probabilistic guarantees. Using simulated data with known ground truth, we investigate the properties of these estimators. Lastly, we also study a modified problem in which the observation stream consists of collections of tokens (i.e., documents) arising from a random measure drawn from a stable beta process, which allows for power law scaling behavior in the number of unique tokens.

The Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) Bayes framework (McAllester, 1999) can incorporate knowledge about the learning algorithm and (data) distribution through the use of distribution-dependent priors, yielding tighter generalization bounds on data-dependent posteriors. Using this flexibility, however, is difficult, especially when the data distribution is presumed to be unknown. We show how an e-differentially private data-dependent prior yields a valid PAC-Bayes bound, and then show how non-private mechanisms for choosing priors can also yield generalization bounds. As an application of this result, we show that a Gaussian prior mean chosen via stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD; Welling and Teh, 2011) leads to a valid PAC-Bayes bound given control of the 2-Wasserstein distance to an e-differentially private stationary distribution. We study our datadependent bounds empirically, and show that they can be nonvacuous even when other distribution-dependent bounds are vacuous.

Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to the gradient or a large number of likelihood evaluations. We introduce here a novel sample-efficient inference framework, Variational Bayesian Monte Carlo (VBMC). VBMC combines variational inference with Gaussian-process based, active-sampling Bayesian quadrature, using the latter to efficiently approximate the intractable integral in the variational objective. Our method produces both a nonparametric approximation of the posterior distribution and an approximate lower bound of the model evidence, useful for model selection. We demonstrate VBMC both on several synthetic likelihoods and on a neuronal model with data from real neurons. Across all tested problems and dimensions (up to D = 10), VBMC performs consistently well in reconstructing the posterior and the model evidence with a limited budget of likelihood evaluations, unlike other methods that work only in very low dimensions. Our framework shows great promise as a novel tool for posterior and model inference with expensive, black-box likelihoods.

Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases that are hard to quantify. The latter enjoy asymptotic consistency, but can suffer from high computational costs. In this paper we present a way of bridging the gap between deterministic and stochastic inference. Specifically, we suggest an efficient sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm for PGMs which can leverage the output from deterministic inference methods. While generally applicable, we show explicitly how this can be done with loopy belief propagation, expectation propagation, and Laplace approximations. The resulting algorithm can be viewed as a post-correction of the biases associated with these methods and, indeed, numerical results show clear improvements over the baseline deterministic methods as well as over "plain" SMC.

Event datasets include events that occur irregularly over the timeline and are prevalent in numerous domains. We introduce proximal graphical event models (PGEM) as a representation of such datasets. PGEMs belong to a broader family of models that characterize relationships between various types of events, where the rate of occurrence of an event type depends only on whether or not its parents have occurred in the most recent history. The main advantage over the state of the art models is that they are entirely data driven and do not require additional inputs from the user, which can require knowledge of the domain such as choice of basis functions or hyperparameters in graphical event models. We theoretically justify our learning of optimal windows for parental history and the choices of parental sets, and the algorithm are sound and complete in terms of parent structure learning. We present additional efficient heuristics for learning PGEMs from data, demonstrating their effectiveness on synthetic and real datasets.

We introduce collapsed compilation, a novel approximate inference algorithm for discrete probabilistic graphical models. It is a collapsed sampling algorithm that incrementally selects which variable to sample next based on the partial compila- tion obtained so far. This online collapsing, together with knowledge compilation inference on the remaining variables, naturally exploits local structure and context- specific independence in the distribution. These properties are used implicitly in exact inference, but are difficult to harness for approximate inference. More- over, by having a partially compiled circuit available during sampling, collapsed compilation has access to a highly effective proposal distribution for importance sampling. Our experimental evaluation shows that collapsed compilation performs well on standard benchmarks. In particular, when the amount of exact inference is equally limited, collapsed compilation is competitive with the state of the art, and outperforms it on several benchmarks.

Expectation-Maximization (EM) is a popular tool for learning latent variable models, but the vanilla batch EM does not scale to large data sets because the whole data set is needed at every E-step. Stochastic Expectation Maximization (sEM) reduces the cost of E-step by stochastic approximation. However, sEM has a slower asymptotic convergence rate than batch EM, and requires a decreasing sequence of step sizes, which is difficult to tune. In this paper, we propose a variance reduced stochastic EM (sEM-vr) algorithm inspired by variance reduced stochastic gradient descent algorithms. We show that sEM-vr has the same exponential asymptotic convergence rate as batch EM. Moreover, sEM-vr only requires a constant step size to achieve this rate, which alleviates the burden of parameter tuning. We compare sEM-vr with batch EM, sEM and other algorithms on Gaussian mixture models and probabilistic latent semantic analysis, and sEM-vr converges significantly faster than these baselines.

Stochastic partition models divide a multi-dimensional space into a number of rectangular regions, such that the data within each region exhibit certain types of homogeneity. Due to the nature of their partition strategy, existing partition models may create many unnecessary divisions in sparse regions when trying to describe data in dense regions. To avoid this problem we introduce a new parsimonious partition model -- the Rectangular Bounding Process (RBP) -- to efficiently partition multi-dimensional spaces, by employing a bounding strategy to enclose data points within rectangular bounding boxes. Unlike existing approaches, the RBP possesses several attractive theoretical properties that make it a powerful nonparametric partition prior on a hypercube. In particular, the RBP is self-consistent and as such can be directly extended from a finite hypercube to infinite (unbounded) space. We apply the RBP to regression trees and relational models as a flexible partition prior. The experimental results validate the merit of the RBP {in rich yet parsimonious expressiveness} compared to the state-of-the-art methods.